The Reds look to salvage the final contest of a three-game series in Los Angeles. However, the probabilities indicate that's not likely to happen. The Dodgers, riding a six-game winning streak, hold a 73% chance of taking the finale. Los Angeles is a 55% favorite, even while giving up a run and a half.
With the entire world expecting the Dodgers to roll, we’ll try to find an opportunity to go against the tide. That’s why my Reds vs Dodgers predictions feature the underdog scoring plenty as part of our MLB picks.
Who will win Reds vs Dodgers today: Reds +1.5 (46%)
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
This is the largest win probability the Los Angeles Dodgers have been given all season, and it’s tempting to take the Cincinnati Reds straight up at 28%. We’ll play it safe though and take the Reds on the run line.
The Dodgers may be one of MLB's best teams, but they’re abysmal against the run line. L.A. is just 58-87 and .400 against the run line this season, and even worse, 53-85 and .384 as the favorite. Meanwhile, the Reds are over .500 (74-71, .510) against the run line and 55-46 (.545) as the underdog. I’d take Cincinnati up to 55%.
COVERS INTEL: Yamamoto seems to have more heat on his fastball when he gets an extra day of rest. This season, he’s been much more of a “true outcomes” pitcher on extra rest, striking out 9.3 batters per nine compared to 8.0 on regular rest. He’s also giving up a home run every 32 plate appearances on long rest, compared to every 42 plate appearances on regular rest.
Reds vs Dodgers Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (51%)
The Dodgers start Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who has been outstanding this season. However, they're tweaking the rotation with an eye toward the playoffs. They flip-flopped Yamamoto and Tarik Skubal, with the latter starting in Tuesday’s run-line loss to the Reds and Yamamoto getting an extra day’s rest. Yamamoto has been more susceptible to the long ball with extra rest this season, and the Reds have logged 18 homers in the last 10 games.
Cincinnati starts Rhett Lowder, a former first-round pick who's still recovering from missing all of last year with an injury. Lowder seems to be wearing down in his first full MLB campaign. He's posted a 6.00 ERA over the last month and 9.00 over the last two weeks.
Reds vs Dodgers home run prediction: Elly De La Cruz (17%)
The hottest Cincinnati hitter, Elly De La Cruz has homered in each of the last four games and is 13 for his previous 25 for a .520 average and 1.080 slugging percentage. That’s a 1.636 OPS and an OPS-plus of 352. De La Cruz has gone deep more often in Dodger Stadium (every 18 times up) than any other National League park other than Wrigley Field.
Yamamoto gives up 1.2 home runs per nine innings at home, compared to 0.7 per nine everywhere else. Plus, he’ll be throwing harder with extra rest. Look for De La Cruz to keep his hot streak going.
- ML/RL bets: 32-40, -3.94 units
- Over/Under bets: 44-23, +8.80 units
Reds vs Dodgers weather
Los Angeles is in the middle of a heat advisory lasting until tomorrow night, and temperatures are expected to be in the 90s for the first hour of the game.
Reds vs Dodgers odds
- Moneyline: Reds 28% | Dodgers 73%
- Run line: Reds +1.5 (46%) | Dodgers -1.5 (55%)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (50%) | Under 8.5 (51%)
Reds vs Dodgers trend
The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in eight of their last 12 games (+3.25 Units / 21% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Reds vs. Dodgers.
How to watch Reds vs Dodgers and game info
| Location | UNIQLO Field, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date | Wednesday, September 9, 2026 |
| First pitch | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | Reds.TV, SNLA |
| Reds starting pitcher | Rhett Lowder (6-9, 5.43 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher | Yoshinobu Yamamoto (12-8, 2.67 ERA) |
Reds vs Dodgers latest injuries
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