Blue Jays vs Braves Picks and Predictions: Ryu's Revenge?

May 12, 2021 |
Blue Jays vs Braves Picks and Predictions: Ryu's Revenge?
Hyun-jin Ryu takes the mound Wednesday against a Braves lineup that is hitting just .185 with a .577 OPS against left-handed pitching this season.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports
Hyun-jin Ryu takes the mound Wednesday against a Braves lineup that is hitting just .185 with a .577 OPS against left-handed pitching this season.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Toronto Blue Jays own the Atlanta Braves' souls at this point. The Jays and Braves have played four games against one another this season, with the Jays going 4-0 outscoring the Braves 31-15.

Can Atlanta bounce back when they hand the ball to Max Fried, or will they get confounded by another southpaw as Toronto counters with Hyun-jin Ryu?

Check out our MLB free picks and predictions for Blue Jays vs. Braves on Wednesday, May 12, with first pitch scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET.

Blue Jays vs Braves game info

Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
Date: Wednesday, May 12, 2021
Time: 7:20 p.m. ET
TV: SN1, BSSO

Blue Jays vs Braves odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

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MLB Sharp Money and Line Movement Report

By Patrick Everson

This moneyline jumped the fence a couple of times at DraftKings, from Atlanta -109 to Toronto -112 to Atlanta -112, where the price sits at 1 p.m. ET. The Braves are attracting 56 percent of tickets and 62 percent of cash. The total fell from 8.5 (Under -115) to 8 (Under -114), with 59 percent of tickets on the Over and 88 percent of money on the Under.

Check out the full line movement for this game

Blue Jays vs Braves betting preview

Starting pitchers

Hyun-jin Ryu (2-2, 3.31 ERA): Ryu looked a little rusty in his first start coming off a 10-day IL stint, allowing four runs on six hits while recording six strikeouts in five innings against the Oakland Athletics. In his five starts prior to the injury, the lefty had a 2.60 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP.

Max Fried (1-1, 8.44 ERA): Fried is also making his second start coming off an IL stint. His return went smoothly, allowing just one run on four hits while striking out six against the Washington Nationals. But Fried was struggling before the injury, pitching to an 11.34 ERA and allowing opponents to hit .426 off him.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Blue Jays: Tommy Milone RP (Questionable), George Springer CF (Out), Rafael Dolis RP (Out), Anthony Castro RP (Out), Alejandro Kirk C (Out), David Phelps RP (Out), Julian Merryweather RP (Out).
Braves: Ender Inciarte OF (Questionable), Travis d'Arnaud C (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 4-0 in the Blue Jays' last four games as an underdog. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Braves.

Moneyline pick

The Braves are probably getting sick of seeing the Blue Jays these days – with Toronto taking all four meetings this season – and things won’t get any easier Wednesday.

Blue Jays ace Hyun-jin Ryu takes the ball in this game. The fact that he is one of the best starters in the American League makes it tough enough, but the fact he is a lefty makes it even tougher on the Braves, who have really struggled with southpaws this season.

The Braves are hitting just .185 with a .577 OPS against left-handed pitching this season. The only team with worse numbers is the 10-win Detroit Tigers. 

Opposing Ryu is Fried, who finished fifth in Cy Young voting a season ago but has been finding way too much of the plate with his fastball early on this season. The Blue Jays will arguably be the best lineup he has seen in 2021. 

Speaking of the Jays bats, they handle lefties fairly well, with a .251 batting average and a .732 OPS, and are on a bit of a roll of late, plating 6.45 runs per game over their last 11 contests.

With the Jays also having the superior bullpen, it’s hard not to like the value with them as slight underdogs in this one.

PREDICTION: Blue Jays (+105)

Over/Under pick

The total for this game is interesting. It opened at 8.5 and when bettors saw the matchup of Ryu versus Fried, the Under was hammered enough to move the number down a whole run. But that looks low enough now to jump on the other side.

First of all, all four meetings in this matchup this season have seen at least eight runs scored, seeing an average of 11.5 total runs per game. The Over is 3-1. 

Second, as noted, both starters are making just their second start coming off an injury and have to deal with talented lineups. We mentioned the Jays putting up big numbers lately, but the Braves haven’t been too shabby either putting up 5.07 runs per game over their last 14 overall.

Plus, there is the Braves bullpen that choked away another game last night and now ranks 22nd in ERA and 25th in WHIP. This one should sneak Over the number.

PREDICTION: Over 7.5 (-110)

Blue Jays vs Braves betting card

  • Blue Jays (+105)
  • Over 7.5 (-110)

Picks made on 5/X2/2021 at 12:40 p.m. ET

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