We get baseball all day long, so let's dive into with today's MLB player props market.
Join me as I break down three of my favorite MLB picks for Wednesday, Sept. 9, including why Aaron Judge is going to get back on track against Tomoyuki Sugano.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Aaron Judge |
Over 1.5 total bases | -105 |
 James Wood |
Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI | -110 |
 Tomoyuki Sugano |
Over 3.5 earned runs | +121 |
Aaron Judge Over 1.5 total bases (-105)
The welcome-back fiesta should ensue later this evening, as New York Yankees captain Aaron Judge has the privilege of taking on Colorado Rockies punching bag Tomoyuki Sugano.
The Rockies starter has been getting lit up by right-handed hitters, and despite Judge's absence due to injury, this could be the spot for the big fella to get back on track.
Against the last 60 right-handed hitters he has faced, Sugano is allowing a hard-hit rate above 53% and a line-drive rate of nearly 43%, while those hitters have posted a .459 xBA and .689 xSLG.
The captain finds himself with an elite rating on Batters-Box this evening. In 157 elite ratings at home over the last three seasons, he has surpassed this prop 54% of the time, while leaving the yard 32.48% of the time.
I got this prop at -105, and I also took him to hit two home runs at 22/1. I'm not paying +220 for a home run for a guy who has not played in months, but Sugano is horrible, and this is a great opportunity for him to boom. Take this down to -110 at the most.
- Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: YES, COLR
James Wood Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-112)
Washington Nationals young star James Wood has been pulverizing the baseball since coming back. Of his last 10 balls in play, seven have been crushed at 100.9 mph or harder. With only three of those seven hard-hit balls resulting in hits, hitting the ball that hard this often is bound to lead to more grass, or the bleachers, rather than a glove.
This evening against San Diego Padres starter Walker Buehler, Wood has an elite rating on Batters-Box, where Buehler throws nearly 80% of his pitch mix. On top of that, through 35 elite ratings this season, the big fella has surpassed this prop 54.29% of the time.
Against the last 30 left-handed hitters Buehler has faced, he is allowing a 10% barrel rate and a 3.00 HR/9. Those hitters have a .286 xBA, .554 xSLG, and .238 ISO.
I snagged this prop at -110, and I would take it all the way down to -120. Do not be afraid to sprinkle on his home run and double props, too.
- Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NATS, SDPA
Tomoyuki Sugano Over 3.5 earned runs (+121)
Yes, asking for four runs is a lot, but not when a team is taking on Rockies right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano, who owns the worst pitcher rating on Batters-Box and is drawing nine elite-rated Yankees hitters.
The Bronx Bombers' average hitter matchup rating in the current season dataset is a staggering .562. To be graded as "Elite," you have to have a rating above .45. Anything above that is very high.
As the starts go by, Sugano progressively gets worse. In his last three starts, he owns a 9.69 ERA and 2.15 WHIP. In five of Sugano's last 10 poorly-rated matchups, he has allowed at least five runs.
The Yankees should have no issue getting to the seasoned sophomore early and often this evening. Hopefully, it starts with Judge.
If you're worried about a possible error, take the team's first-five team total Over. Make sure you're getting plus money.
- Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: YES, COLR
- Prop picks: 485-949, +3.4 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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