Plenty of bettors scoff at trends, and I get it.
A team’s incredible record in non-divisional road games played in domes in November doesn't exactly carry a lot of weight.
However, some trends reveal patterns worth digging into, giving us a useful starting point and foundation for a bet.
That’s what I’ll highlight each week in this article, beginning with three Week 1 trends that deserve consideration as you put together your NFL picks.
Best NFL trends for Week 1
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Matchup | Trend | Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
 TB @  CIN |
Cincinnati is 0-4 ATS in its last four Week 1 games | +3.5 |
50% |
 DAL @  NYG |
They were a combined 26-8 to the 1st Half Over last season | 1H Over 24.5 | 46% |
 DEN @  KC |
These teams have gone Under in six straight meetings | Under 43.5 | 51% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Buccaneers vs Bengals
Trend: The Bengals are 0-4 ATS in their last four Week 1 games
- Why it matters for Week 1: They haven't just been bad in Week 1 games; they've been atrocious.
Pick: Buccaneers +3.5
The Cincinnati Bengals have been awful when opening a season, going 0-4 ATS in their last four Week 1 games despite being favored in every one.
Last year, they barely escaped Cleveland 17-16 as 4.5-point favorites. In 2024, they lost 16-10 to New England as 7.5-point favorites. They got smoked 24-3 by Cleveland as 1.5-point favorites in 2023, following a 23-20 loss to Pittsburgh as 6.5-point favorites in 2022.
That’s a recurring failure to meet even modest expectations, with Cincinnati scoring 20 points or fewer in all four contests.
Ironically enough, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a pattern of getting off to great starts, as the Bucs have covered in four straight Week 1 games. Getting that hook with Tampa Bay +3.5 makes this especially appealing, allowing us to cash even if Cincinnati sneaks away with a field-goal win.
Cowboys vs Giants
Trend: The Cowboys and Giants were a combined 26-8 to the first-half Over last season
- Why it matters for Week 1: Dallas consistently scored early and gave up plenty in return in 2025. With this much firepower on both sides, there's good reason to back another high-scoring affair.
Pick: First-half Over 24.5
The Dallas Cowboys did most of the heavy lifting here with an absurd 16-1 first-half Over record.
Dallas led the NFL in first-half points per game while allowing the second-most, producing an average of 31.9 combined points before halftime. The Cowboys could light you up early, but their opponents were usually invited to the party.
There’s plenty of firepower to keep that going. CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens give Dak Prescott a lethal receiving tandem, while Malik Nabers, Cam Skattebo and Isaiah Likely give the New York Giants weapons to attack through the air and on the ground.
We don’t need either defense to fall apart for four quarters. With this much offensive talent and such a ridiculous track record of early scoring, the first-half Over deserves another look to open the season.
Broncos vs Chiefs
Trend: These teams have gone Under in six straight games against each other
- Why it matters for Week 1: Points have been hard to come by in this rivalry, and with both quarterbacks returning from major injuries against stingy defenses, it's fair to expect another grind.
Pick: Under 43.5
The Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs have gone Under in six straight meetings, with five of those games failing to reach even 40 combined points. All six finished below this week’s total of 43.5.
While rosters have changed during that stretch, an average of just 33.7 combined points in these games is difficult to ignore. That’s nearly 10 points below the number we’re being asked to beat.
There are current reasons to expect the pattern to continue, too. This is the first game back for both quarterbacks since major injuries, with Patrick Mahomes returning from knee surgery and Bo Nix coming back from a fractured ankle.
Neither gets a gentle landing against defenses that each ranked in the top five in points allowed last season. With both quarterbacks potentially needing time to settle in, this matchup has the ingredients for another Under.
Other notable trends for Week 1
(Trend rating: 🟢 = good, 🔴 = avoid)
- 🟢Trend 1: The Panthers are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog.
- 🟢Trend 2: The Jets are 6-19 SU as road underdogs.
- 🔴Trend 3: The Saints have covered the spread in six straight games.
- 🔴Trend 4: The Colts are 2-14-1 ATS in their last 17 Week 1 games.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
