Let’s rack up some punchout props while MLB markets take a back seat to football, giving us a chance to build that Week 1 bankroll with some strikeout and pitcher props.
The Orioles need Shane Baz, and his leash should be long enough to reach 5+ punchouts. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has a chance to put up career numbers against the Reds, and pitcher walk props at +140 or better are always worth a look — especially with Griffin Jax on the mound.
These are my favorite MLB picks for Wednesday, Sept. 9.
Best MLB strikeout props and starting pitcher picks today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Shane Baz |
Over 4.5 strikeouts | +112 |
 Yoshinobu Yamamoto |
Over 7.5 strikeouts | -108 |
 Griffin Jax |
Over 1.5 walks | +165 |
Strikeout prop: Shane Baz Over 4.5 strikeouts (+112)
I bought this at +112 with a fair price of -120 based on a 92-pitch projected count and 4.91 projected Ks.
Shane Baz is needed in a big game with playoff implications. He's been a K-per-inning pitcher over the last 30 days and has pitched better at home, averaging more strikeouts per nine innings than on the road this season. The leash is there, too, as he has reached 90+ pitches in 80% of his last 15 starts, including 95+ in nine of them.
Five innings and five strikeouts is a modest projection today, especially after the Baltimore Orioles used five arms yesterday and need to win this series. Baz is also in great form, ranking No. 23 in FIP among starters in the second half, even with some BABIP and LOB% numbers suggesting his 3.31 ERA could be even better.
- Time: 6:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Guardians.TV, MASN
Strikeout prop: Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 7.5 strikeouts (-108)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been cashing Overs for four straight starts. The Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander has 34 Ks over his last 25+ innings, is getting a 100-pitch leash, and could flirt with double-digit punchouts today because he's facing the Cincinnati Reds.
Cincinnati is the best strikeout matchup in baseball in the second half, with a 26.2% K rate that tops the league. The Reds have been whiffing at the highest rate in baseball all summer, and with them potentially looking ahead to a day off in Los Angeles before a series in Milwaukee on Friday, this sets up as a letdown spot. They're 8.5 games back of the final Wild Card spot and have plenty of reason to start looking ahead.
Yamamoto is entering playoff mode just as the Reds are letting their foot off the gas after a long season. There is no reason to get off his Ks today.
- Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SportsNet LA, Reds.TV
Pitcher walks prop: Griffin Jax Over 1.5 pitcher walks (+165)
I bought this at +165 and would play it to +120.
Griffin Jax lasted eight outs on 63 pitches against the Mets in his return to the rotation, but he struggled with his command, issuing two walks while giving up seven hits. That was at home.
Now the Tampa Bay Rays starter heads on the road and projects for 1.66 walks on a short leash of 76 pitches, which should be a very accurate pitch count from THE BAT.
Since the start of July, Jax has had multiple walks in four of seven starts, and his recent elbow injury isn't helping his command profile. It's going to take a lot of movement toward even money to get me off this prop.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: BravesVision, Rays.TV
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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