NFL AI Predictions for Week 1: ATS Picks & Score Projections for Every Game

We like Seattle to win the rematch, but New England to keep it close. Losing TreVeyon Henderson to an ankle injury makes the Patriots’ job harder. Staying out of long-yardage situations becomes even more important without him, especially on the road. Still, the model has New England hanging around in a 24–21 loss, so we’re taking the points with Patriots +3.5.

The total is a much closer call. Our 45-point projection puts us on Over 44.5, but there’s little room for either offense to have an off night. This looks like a competitive opener, with that extra half point above a field goal worth having on the New England side.

The Rams get our nod in an unusual setting for this rivalry. Los Angeles is the designated home team, but this is a neutral-site game in Melbourne. Myles Garrett is expected to make his Rams debut while Aaron Donald sits out, putting the spotlight on whether that pass rush can disrupt San Francisco without needing extra blitzers.

We expect the 49ers to score enough to keep Los Angeles working, with the model calling for a 27–23 Rams win. That puts us on Rams -3.5 and Over 47.5. The total is the more interesting of the two: we have both teams reaching the 20s and combining for 50 points.

Ben Johnson’s offense gives us reason to trust Chicago on the road. The biggest change in Caleb Williams’ first year with Ben Johnson was how often the Bears avoided drive-killing sacks: 24, down from 68 as a rookie. That’s a much better foundation for winning on the road, where an offense can’t afford to keep putting itself behind the chains.

Our model stops short of a convincing Chicago win, though, landing at 23–21. We’ll take Carolina +3.5 and Under 46.5. The Bears are the straight-up pick, but the forecast gives the Panthers enough scoring to stay within reach rather than spend the afternoon chasing a two-score deficit.

Indianapolis has enough ways to move the ball to stay in this one. Jonathan Taylor is the starting point, but Josh Downs and Tyler Warren also give Daniel Jones options underneath. Making Baltimore tackle in space is a sensible way to keep the offense moving without asking Jones to force the ball downfield in his return.

There’s a good matchup on the other side, too: Colts defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo knows Lamar Jackson well from his years in Cincinnati. We still have Baltimore winning 26–23, but we’ll take Indianapolis +3.5 at home. The 49-point forecast also puts us on Over 47.5.

Pittsburgh gets a narrow vote of confidence in Mike McCarthy’s debut. The Steelers have plenty of veteran experience, which should help with the early adjustments under a new staff. Protection is worth watching, though: Pittsburgh has been working through its options at right tackle, and the offense needs that spot settled enough to keep the playbook open.

We have the Steelers winning 24–20, making Pittsburgh -3.5 a modest lean. Atlanta is close enough in that forecast to make a late possession matter, so this isn’t a pick that depends on Pittsburgh cruising. Over 42.5 is the total selection, with both teams projected to reach 20.

Jacksonville is the favorite we expect to create the most separation. Trevor Lawrence is in his second year with Liam Coen, while Cleveland is starting over under Todd Monken. That continuity gives the Jaguars an appealing setup at home, especially if they can establish a lead and make the Browns’ new offense play from behind.

The model makes this our only double-digit result of the week: Jaguars 27, Browns 16. We’re laying 7.5 with Jacksonville and taking Over 40.5. The Over does lean heavily on the home team, but 27 points from the Jaguars would leave Cleveland with a manageable contribution to get it there.

The Bucs have to be selective about when they go after Joe Burrow. Cincinnati’s quarterback posted a 115.8 passer rating against the blitz last season, so sending extra rushers is hardly a free pass to get him off schedule. Tampa Bay needs pressure from its front and sound tackling behind it to give Baker Mayfield a chance to answer.

We think the Bucs can do enough, with the model giving them a 25–24 road win. Tampa Bay +3.5 is the ATS pick, and the outright upset earns a feature above. We’re also on Under 50.5; there should be plenty to watch here without the game needing to turn into a 30-point afternoon for either team.

Cam Ward gets a chance to turn the page with Brian Daboll calling the offense. Tennessee’s new coordinator has an important job in Ward’s second season: give him answers when the first read is covered and keep manageable downs from becoming obvious passing situations. That’s a more useful focus for this opener than the Robert Saleh reunion with the Jets.

The model has Tennessee winning 23–20, so we’ll lay the short number at Titans -1.5. Over 39.5 also makes sense against that forecast. Both teams went 3–14 last season, but a low total still leaves room for an ordinary scoring day to clear it.

Detroit has the advantage at home, but the Saints deserve a little respect. New Orleans won four of its last five games in 2025, and Tyler Shough began looking more comfortable as the season progressed. The test now is keeping that poise at Ford Field, where falling behind Jared Goff and the Lions could force the Saints into a much more predictable passing game.

We expect Detroit to get enough stops to pull away, with a 27–19 projection pointing to Lions -6.5. Under 49.5 is the total pick. The model is asking considerably more of Detroit’s scoring than New Orleans’, which is why a solid day for the Lions can still finish Under.

Houston’s defense makes this a difficult place to lay points with Buffalo. Josh Allen has a combined 64.2 passer rating and has taken 11 sacks across three regular-season losses here. The Texans can make even this offense work for its yards, and Buffalo’s answer has to include taking the underneath completions before trying to create the big play.

The model has the Bills escaping 23–22, putting us on Houston +1.5. Over 44.5 is only a slight lean. Buffalo also begins life under defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard after struggling against the run last year, so we expect Houston to have opportunities to sustain drives of its own.

Justin Herbert and Mike McDaniel are an intriguing pairing, but -9.5 asks a lot in the opener. The Chargers have spent the summer installing McDaniel’s offense, and this is our first real look at how it comes together. We like Los Angeles to win; asking the new operation to immediately produce a double-digit margin is a bigger leap.

Our 26–20 projection leaves plenty of room for Arizona +9.5, even if the Chargers spend much of the game in control. Under 47.5 is the other selection. A competitive finish from the Cardinals would fit this call just fine; they don’t have to threaten an outright upset to cover.

Kyler Murray’s Vikings debut looks more like a tight divisional game than a shootout. His ability to escape the pocket gives Green Bay another problem to solve, particularly when coverage holds up on the first read. But we’re expecting some give-and-take as Murray gets his first regular-season work in Kevin O’Connell’s offense.

The model has Minnesota winning 21–20, leaving us with Packers +1.5 and Under 45.5. The Under is the more compelling call: our 41-point forecast is the furthest below a listed total anywhere on the board. We expect the defenses to make both quarterbacks work for their scoring opportunities.

Miami needs to keep Maxx Crosby from dictating how this game is played. Malik Willis’ mobility gives the Dolphins a way to escape pressure, but they still need a protection plan that keeps Crosby from living in the backfield. On defense, locating Brock Bowers before the snap is essential; Las Vegas can move him around to find a favorable matchup for Kirk Cousins.

The model sees Miami handling the trip well enough to win 22–20, making Dolphins +3.5 our best pick. That’s the largest disagreement between our projected margin and a spread this week. Over 40.5 is also the pick, although we’re expecting a close game with neither team running away on the scoreboard.

Philadelphia has the familiar pieces to win while its new offense takes shape. Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, and the entire starting offensive line are back, giving Sean Mannion a strong base for his first game calling plays. The Eagles have kept the new wrinkles mostly under wraps, so Washington will have some adjustments to make once the game starts.

We have Philadelphia winning 25–20, but we’ll take Washington +5.5 to stay inside the number. The total pick is Over 44.5. Both are close calls against the forecast, which sees the Eagles doing enough to win without getting much breathing room against a division opponent.

The Giants have an opening to make Dallas work for this one. Cowboys left guard Tyler Smith will miss at least four games after thumb surgery, leaving an important piece of the protection to replace. Interior pressure is particularly disruptive because it takes away a quarterback’s space to step up, making that matchup worth watching in John Harbaugh’s Giants debut.

We still give Dallas a 25–24 win, but Giants +2.5 is the pick against the spread. Over 47.5 goes with it. The model has both teams finding enough offense to keep answering, with very little separating them by the finish.

We’re backing Denver to make Monday night uncomfortable for Kansas City. This forecast assumes Patrick Mahomes starts, so the Broncos’ 21–20 edge isn’t built around a backup quarterback taking over. Mahomes appears on track to play, and Denver’s task is to make him earn the long drives rather than hand Kansas City easy scoring chances.

Broncos +2.5 is the ATS pick, with Under 43.5 alongside it. This is tied with Packers–Vikings for our lowest projected total of the week. We’re expecting a close divisional game in which a couple of red-zone stops could matter more than which team piles up the most yards.