Our Thursday MLB moneyline predictions feature several intriguing individual and team matchups, with plenty of value available across today's five-game slate.
Read on for my MLB moneyline predictions and MLB picks for Thursday, Sept. 10.
MLB moneyline picks for September 10
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Raysvs  Braves |
53% |
 Astrosvs  Phillies |
38% |
 Rangersvs  Mariners |
46% |
 Rockiesvs  Yankees |
26% |
 Piratesvs  White Sox |
50% |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of September 10.
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Expert MLB moneyline picks for September 10
Rays vs Braves: Braves
Braves win probability: 53.9%
Atlanta has the edge here, mainly because of what happens after the starters leave.
Nick Martinez and Martín Pérez are both serviceable enough, so this game could easily swing in the later innings.
That is where Atlanta separates. Over the last two weeks, Tampa Bay’s bullpen owns a 4.45 SIERA with just an 8.5% K-BB rate, while Atlanta has been much sharper at 3.88 with a 1.15 WHIP and a 14.0% K-BB rate.
If this is close late, the Braves are in the better spot.
Astros vs Phillies: Astros
Astros win probability: 38%
This one comes down to whether Philadelphia’s current price matches the way its offense is playing, and right now it does not.
The Phillies have posted a 79 wRC+ with a .297 OBP over the last two weeks, which is well below what you would expect from a team carrying this kind of number.
Zack Wheeler is the clear headliner, but Houston still has some swing-and-miss upside with Cristian Javier, and the Astros bullpen has been solid with a 3.11 FIP over that same stretch.
The gap between these teams is not as wide as the number suggests.
Rangers vs Mariners: Rangers
Rangers win probability: 46%
Texas looks live here for two reasons: Jacob deGrom and the lineup's recent form.
Seattle has struck out 26.4% of the time over the last two weeks and has managed just a 93 wRC+ in that span.
Texas, meanwhile, has been one of the better offenses in baseball lately, ranking third with a 122 wRC+ and backing it up with a strong .204 ISO.
Logan Gilbert is good enough to keep Seattle competitive, but Texas has the hotter bats and the more dangerous starter.
Rockies vs Yankees: Rockies
Rockies win probability: 26%
The Yankees are the obvious favorite, but recent offensive form doesn't fully support such a steep number.
Over the last two weeks, New York has produced a 107 wRC+, but the .128 ISO stands out because the power has not really been there.
Colorado has actually been more competitive at the plate than people might expect, putting up a 101 wRC+ with a .349 OBP in that same stretch.
Max Fried is the biggest difference-maker in this matchup, but if the question is whether New York has earned this big of a gap, the recent numbers say not really.
Pirates vs White Sox: White Sox
White Sox win probability: 52%
Chicago has quietly been better offensively than Pittsburgh lately, and that is the biggest reason this matchup leans their way.
Over the last two weeks, the White Sox own a 111 wRC+ and have paired it with an excellent 12.9% walk rate.
Pittsburgh has remained one of the weaker offenses in this group, posting an 85 wRC+ with a .101 ISO.
Chicago’s bullpen has also been excellent, recording a 2.10 ERA and a 15.9% K-BB rate over that stretch.
Jared Jones can change the shape of any game, but the recent team form points toward the White Sox.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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