World Series action flips to Tampa with Milwaukee holding a 2-0 series lead, and our Brewers vs. Rays expert picks highlight the top MLB picks for Game 3.
For more analysis, check out our Brewers vs. Rays predictions for Oct. 26.
Brewers vs Rays expert picks for Game 4
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Colby Marchio: Freddy Peralta Over 3.5 hits allowed |
59% |
 Joe Osborne: Robert Gasser Under 1.5 earned runs |
54% |
 Neil Parker: Freddy Peralta Under 14.5 outs |
45% |
Probabilities courtesy of Polymarket. For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
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Colby Marchio's expert pick: Freddy Peralta Over 3.5 hits allowed
Price: 59¢ at Polymarket
Don't be afraid of the juice, kids! The Milwaukee Brewers have posted a 113 wRC+, .757 OPS, 44% hard-hit rate, and 78.5% contact rate on the road this postseason.
Freddy Peralta may be on fire right now, but he still owns a 5.27 xFIP, while opposing hitters own a 10.2% barrel rate, .270 xBA, and .487 xSLG against him. The Brewers are humming, and I think asking for four hits at that price is worth it.
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Robert Gasser Under 1.5 earned runs
Price: 54¢ at Polymarket
Robert Gasser has allowed one earned run or fewer in six straight appearances, last giving up multiple earned runs way back on September 1.
He’s surrendered just one ER with a 0.89 WHIP across two road playoff starts, throwing only 56 and 72 pitches. Nearly two weeks between outings raises concerns, but Tampa Bay’s bats aren’t exactly intimidating, striking out in 27.5% of their World Series plate appearances.
With Milwaukee’s bullpen sporting a ridiculous 1.24 playoff ERA, I expect a blueprint of a short leash and a quick handoff.
Neil Parker's expert pick: Freddy Peralta Under 14.5 outs
Price: 45¢ at Polymarket
Tampa Bay Rays starter Freddy Peralta has screaming statistical correction coming to his unsustainable .229 BABIP and 96.8% strand rate this postseason, and his 1.08 ERA is miles below his 4.01 xERA and 5.73 xFIP.
The Brewers are a tough matchup, too
Milwaukee finished second in wOBA against righties during the regular season, and the Brew Crew are pacing the postseason in the metric while ranking third in xwOBA against right-handed pitchers.
How to watch Brewers vs Rays Game 3
| Location | Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, Fla. |
| Date | Monday, Oct. 26, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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