The Tampa Bay Rays (52%) have the pitching advantage as they look to claw back into their series with the Milwaukee Brewers on home soil.
Milwaukee starter Robert Gasser struggled to contain power against righties, and I'm backing Junior Caminero to take advantage in my Brewers vs. Rays home run predictions.
Let's dive deeper into the full slate of MLB picks for Monday, Oct. 26. Make sure to also check out our Brewers vs. Rays predictions.
Best Brewers vs Rays home run picks
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Junior Caminero
Brewers home run pick: Jake Bauers
Jake Bauers is my favorite target on the Milwaukee Brewers and is worth a play at 19%.
He is a fastball smasher who teed off on right-handed pitching all year long. On an insanely productive, firepower-loaded offense, Bauers led the way in hard-hit rate, barrel percentage, and home runs per fly ball.
His numbers have predictably dropped against consistently elite playoff pitching, yet he still barreled up righties at a healthy 11.3% clip.
Rays home run pick: Junior Caminero
Caminero nuked left-handed pitching during the regular season. He posted a .287 average, .390 wOBA, and .490 SLG – and his expected outputs were even higher in all three categories.
He homered eight times in 157 at-bats, which equates to a homer more than 5% of the time.
Robert Gasser ranked in the 36th percentile in HR/FB vs. righties and the 27th percentile in xSLG.
He also gave up homers at a much higher clip on the road (1.44 HR/9 vs. 0.97), making Caminero even more appealing.
Long-shot home run pick: Ryan Vilade
Ryan Vilade is my favorite long-shot in this game.
He hit seven homers against lefties in the regular season, with fewer ABs than Caminero. Vilade matched him in SLG and did an even better job generating lift.
His flyball rate was 49.6%, among the team's best. Last I checked, you need to get the ball in the air to leave the park. Vilade excels at that.
Vilade is in good form, too, with a near .400 xwOBA over his last 30 games against Gasser’s three most-used pitches.
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Brewers vs Rays home run combo
This combo centers on the Tampa Bay Rays getting to Gasser early.
He has given up homers at a noticeably higher rate on the road and ranks in the 27th percentile in xSLG against righties, making him vulnerable against the power of both Caminero and Vilade.
Bauers makes sense as a target the other way. He was Milwaukee’s best barrel generator vs. righties during the regular season but he hits pitchers of both handedness well.
The Rays take advantage of the early lefty matchup, and Bauers slugs to help the Brewers hang around.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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