The Boston Red Sox host the Houston Astros at Fenway Park on Thursday, looking to avoid a three-game sweep. The Astros came away with convincing wins in the first two games of the series, outscoring Boston by a 15-4 mark.
Houston will turn to Zack Greinke, looking for its fifth win in six games, while Boston counters with Eduardo Rodriguez.
Will Boston find a way to pick up at least one win in this series? Find out with our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Astros vs. Red Sox on June 10.
Astros vs Red Sox game info
• Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
• Date: Thursday, June 10, 2021
• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• TV: ATT SportsNet SW, NESN
Astros vs Red Sox odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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MLB Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonBoston landed on TwinSpires' odds board as a slim -114 favorite and is now practically a pick 'em at -109. The Red Sox are taking 64 percent of moneyline tickets and 58 percent of moneyline dollars. The total is stable at 9 on two-way action, with 52 percent of tickets/55 percent of money on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameAstros vs Red Sox betting preview
Starting pitchers
Zack Greinke (6-2, 3.38 ERA): Greinke has been a monster for Houston lately, as he has pitched 17 innings over his last two starts and allowed only two earned runs. The righty no longer has the type of strikeout stuff he had earlier in his career, but he has been extremely successful at pitching to contact. Greinke also happens to be lights out on the road this year, with a 4-0 record and 1.50 ERA.
Eduardo Rodriguez (5-4, 5.59 ERA): Rodriguez struck out seven in a three-run effort against the Yankees on June 5. The lefty pitched 5.1 innings in that game and the Sox came away with a 7-3 victory. Rodriguez hasn’t quite found his 2019 form just yet, but he should get better the more he gets out there and shakes off the 2020 season that he missed. And with the way Boston’s lineup has been hitting this year, the team would be just fine with another performance like the one he gave them against New York.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Astros: Jason Castro C (Out), Pedro Baez RP (Out).
Red Sox: Alex Verdugo OF (Questionable), Ryan Brasier RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 4-0 in Rodriguez's last four starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Red Sox.
Moneyline pick
It’s hard to think of a game that has felt more like a trap for bettors than this one. Houston has a huge edge on the mound on paper, as Greinke has been on a tear recently and Rodriguez hasn’t lived up to expectations on the year. However, when you do some digging, there are reasons to believe that Boston could find a way to pull this out.
While Greinke has looked like a stud in his last couple of trips to the mound, the righty has had a lot of trouble at Fenway Park in his career. In 9 1-3 innings pitched in Boston, Greinke has allowed 10 earned runs on three homers and 17 hits. Greinke pitches to contact as well as anybody in the league right now, but routine flies to the outfield can turn into hits off the monster in Fenway. That likely has impacted the starter’s mentality in his limited time in Boston.
The Red Sox also have a few guys that could be able to make Greinke pay for some mistakes here. Hunter Renfroe is one hitter that Greinke won’t want to see, as he is 6-for-21 with three homers and six RBI against him in his career. J.D. Martinez is somebody else that is a threat to get going here. Martinez is 4-for-16 with a homer and three RBI against Greinke in his career, and the 33-year-old also happens to be batting .379 with five homers and 25 RBI at home this season.
Rodriguez’s performance at Yankee Stadium was also extremely encouraging last game. That’s an extremely hitter-friendly ballpark, and Rodriguez looked a lot like the guy he was in both 2018 and 2019. Don’t be surprised if that version of the lefty shows up here, even against an Astros lineup that is effective against left-handed pitchers.
PREDICTION: Red Sox (-102)
Over/Under pick
Greinke might not be the right pitcher to back in this game, but it’s unlikely he’ll get completely beaten up in this game.
While his past in Fenway Park isn’t exactly inspiring, it is a small sample size and all it would take is three or four runs allowed for the Red Sox to have a chance in this game.
Also, all three of Rodriguez’s home starts this season have finished with fewer runs than the total set for this game. He's a lot more comfortable when pitching at Fenway, where he has a 4.26 ERA this season. If he can give Boston a quality start in this game, the Sox have a chance and the Under will look great.
PREDICTION: Under 9 (-115)
Astros vs Red Sox betting card
- Red Sox (-102)
- Under 9 (-115)
Picks made on 6/10/2021 at 9:41 a.m. ET
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