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    All Forums | NHL Betting Forum

    Lawton's Projections

    «First Previous 789 ... 151617 Next Last»
    Viral72
    Lawton1
    3DTV
    JamieR44
    Lar1212
    ...
    Participants:
    Search
    Views: 59138
    Posts: 408
    «First Previous 789 ... 151617 Next Last»
     
    Viral72
    Viral72
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    Posted: Oct. 27, 2017 - 3:50 PM ET #151

     Having a hard time liking these today . St.Louis maybe I like. If you can hit two out of three of these even more of a believer

    Reply

     Having a hard time liking these today . St.Louis maybe I like. If you can hit two out of three of these even more of a believer

     
    Lawton1
    Lawton1
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    Posted: Oct. 27, 2017 - 3:59 PM ET #152

    Good, I try not to like (or dislike) any of them... They are, what they are... The plays are from models I've created, I personally don't hardly ever have opinions about these, if I do, they are usually wrong.. 

    I sat out to create a Super System that will consistently hit 57.14% or better, against a (-110) line, over around 100 plays per month.. This is what you are following, keep that in mind and I'm talking over a very long time period... You can raise your base wager amount as your bankroll increases.. I don't want to discuss wager amounts..
    Reply
    Good, I try not to like (or dislike) any of them... They are, what they are... The plays are from models I've created, I personally don't hardly ever have opinions about these, if I do, they are usually wrong.. 

    I sat out to create a Super System that will consistently hit 57.14% or better, against a (-110) line, over around 100 plays per month.. This is what you are following, keep that in mind and I'm talking over a very long time period... You can raise your base wager amount as your bankroll increases.. I don't want to discuss wager amounts..
     
    3DTV
    3DTV
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    Posted: Oct. 27, 2017 - 4:30 PM ET #153

    I assume if I bet the 1/2 goal @ +125 I lose on a the? Are there ties in nhl anymore?

    Reply

    I assume if I bet the 1/2 goal @ +125 I lose on a the? Are there ties in nhl anymore?

     
    Lawton1
    Lawton1
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    Posted: Oct. 27, 2017 - 4:41 PM ET #154

    Your betting regulation only with that line.. If it goes to OT, u lose.. No there are no ties..
    Reply
    Your betting regulation only with that line.. If it goes to OT, u lose.. No there are no ties..
     
    3DTV
    3DTV
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    Posted: Oct. 27, 2017 - 5:43 PM ET #155

    Knew I was missing something. Thank you.

    Reply

    Knew I was missing something. Thank you.

     
    Lawton1
    Lawton1
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    Posted: Oct. 27, 2017 - 6:31 PM ET #156

    No problem..

    Saturdays I always split my betting day into 2 sessions, so essentially I have 8 betting days each week.. I may release the day games for Saturday later tonight... I have not looked at the night games and will not until Saturday after lunch..

    Good luck to everyone..
    Reply
    No problem..

    Saturdays I always split my betting day into 2 sessions, so essentially I have 8 betting days each week.. I may release the day games for Saturday later tonight... I have not looked at the night games and will not until Saturday after lunch..

    Good luck to everyone..
     
    JamieR44
    JamieR44
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    Posted: Oct. 27, 2017 - 7:11 PM ET #157

    Quote Originally Posted by Viral72:

     Having a hard time liking these today . St.Louis maybe I like. If you can hit two out of three of these even more of a believer



    NHL has been solid...check the numbers.

    I've been riding from the start...Just gotta believe.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by Viral72:

     Having a hard time liking these today . St.Louis maybe I like. If you can hit two out of three of these even more of a believer



    NHL has been solid...check the numbers.

    I've been riding from the start...Just gotta believe.
     
    3DTV
    3DTV
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    Posted: Oct. 27, 2017 - 10:07 PM ET #158

    My bad! Glad I found you and will be riding this mother till the wheels fall off or my bookie stops taking my action. 

    Reply

    My bad! Glad I found you and will be riding this mother till the wheels fall off or my bookie stops taking my action. 

     
    3DTV
    3DTV
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    Posted: Oct. 27, 2017 - 11:42 PM ET #159

    You say you didnt want to talk wager amounts. Question? How about unit in relation to bankroll? If we are betting 1 unit per bet how many units should our bankroll be? Clearly the bigger the better but where do we begin to miss out on value?  

    Calculating using units and your goal "I sat out to create a Super System that will consistently hit 57.14% or better, against a (-110) line, over around 100 plays per month"

    ((100*57.14)-(110*42.86))/100=9.94 units every 100 bets

    I this the correct math?
    Reply
    You say you didnt want to talk wager amounts. Question? How about unit in relation to bankroll? If we are betting 1 unit per bet how many units should our bankroll be? Clearly the bigger the better but where do we begin to miss out on value?  

    Calculating using units and your goal "I sat out to create a Super System that will consistently hit 57.14% or better, against a (-110) line, over around 100 plays per month"

    ((100*57.14)-(110*42.86))/100=9.94 units every 100 bets

    I this the correct math?
     
    3DTV
    3DTV
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    Posted: Oct. 27, 2017 - 11:44 PM ET #160

    Reverse sweep tonight. Blake screwed us last night. It happens. On to tomorrow. If my math works out we average ~10 units a month if we bet 3 games a day and twice on Saturday. Not too shabby if the unit size is big enough.
    Reply
    Reverse sweep tonight. Blake screwed us last night. It happens. On to tomorrow. If my math works out we average ~10 units a month if we bet 3 games a day and twice on Saturday. Not too shabby if the unit size is big enough.
     
    Lawton1
    Lawton1
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    Posted: Oct. 28, 2017 - 8:09 AM ET #161

    Probability System
    54-35 (+17.40 units)
    60.67% Winners
    1 unit each

    NHL: 24-10 (+13.40 units)
    NFL: 10-5 (+4.90 units)
    MLB: 9-5 (+4.20 units)
    NBA: 4-6 (-3.20 units)
    CFB: 7-9 (-2.90 units)

    Saturday

    Akron (+100)

    Georgia -13.5
    Penn St +7
    UCLA Over 58

    1 unit each

    There will be an evening card, posted later today


    Reply
    Probability System
    54-35 (+17.40 units)
    60.67% Winners
    1 unit each

    NHL: 24-10 (+13.40 units)
    NFL: 10-5 (+4.90 units)
    MLB: 9-5 (+4.20 units)
    NBA: 4-6 (-3.20 units)
    CFB: 7-9 (-2.90 units)

    Saturday

    Akron (+100)

    Georgia -13.5
    Penn St +7
    UCLA Over 58

    1 unit each

    There will be an evening card, posted later today


     
    Lar1212
    Lar1212
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    Posted: Oct. 28, 2017 - 9:48 AM ET #162

    Like 'em all. Was already thinking GA & PSU. 
    Reply
    Like 'em all. Was already thinking GA & PSU. 
     
    3DTV
    3DTV
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    Posted: Oct. 28, 2017 - 1:24 PM ET #163

    Lawton would you mind sharing your thoughts on bankroll strategy as it relates to probability and risk of ruin?

    Reply

    Lawton would you mind sharing your thoughts on bankroll strategy as it relates to probability and risk of ruin?

     
    Lawton1
    Lawton1
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    Posted: Oct. 28, 2017 - 1:53 PM ET #164

    Yep, 2.5% of bankroll on each play... Recalculate at end of each Quarter, every 3 months.... Simple as that...
    Reply
    Yep, 2.5% of bankroll on each play... Recalculate at end of each Quarter, every 3 months.... Simple as that...
     
    3DTV
    3DTV
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    Posted: Oct. 28, 2017 - 2:57 PM ET #165

    Bet to win 2.5% or risk 2.5%. When juice fluctuates we risk more. I have been getting to win 1 unit which at times costs 1.5.

    Reply

    Bet to win 2.5% or risk 2.5%. When juice fluctuates we risk more. I have been getting to win 1 unit which at times costs 1.5.

     
    Lawton1
    Lawton1
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    Posted: Oct. 28, 2017 - 3:09 PM ET #166

    I play to win 2.5% on favorites, risk 2.5% on dogs.. I won't recalculate BR until Jan 1.. Ideally for me, 20K BR, base wager $500.. But it has taken me many years to not only get to this level but to be comfortable at this level... No one bet needs to be special, its about being comfortable.. I may never move above this level for wagering.
    Reply
    I play to win 2.5% on favorites, risk 2.5% on dogs.. I won't recalculate BR until Jan 1.. Ideally for me, 20K BR, base wager $500.. But it has taken me many years to not only get to this level but to be comfortable at this level... No one bet needs to be special, its about being comfortable.. I may never move above this level for wagering.
     
    GuillaumeT
    GuillaumeT
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    Posted: Oct. 28, 2017 - 5:36 PM ET #167

    Will you post something for tonight Lawton1? 

    Reply

    Will you post something for tonight Lawton1? 

     
    Lawton1
    Lawton1
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    Posted: Oct. 28, 2017 - 5:48 PM ET #168

    Yes, will post an evening card soon..
    Reply
    Yes, will post an evening card soon..
     
    Lar1212
    Lar1212
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    Posted: Oct. 28, 2017 - 6:33 PM ET #169

    I'll trade an 0-3 for a 4-0. See you soon! 
    Reply
    I'll trade an 0-3 for a 4-0. See you soon! 
     
    JamieR44
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    Posted: Oct. 28, 2017 - 6:40 PM ET #170

    Quote Originally Posted by Lar1212:

    I'll trade an 0-3 for a 4-0. See you soon!

    Keeping the faith pays off....keep rolling Lawton....much appreciated.

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by Lar1212:

    I'll trade an 0-3 for a 4-0. See you soon!

    Keeping the faith pays off....keep rolling Lawton....much appreciated.

     
    Lawton1
    Lawton1
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    Posted: Oct. 28, 2017 - 6:49 PM ET #171

    Saturday night Oct 28

    Pittsburgh -110

    Arizona St +4.5

    Dodgers Over 8.5 (-110)

    1 unit each

    Probability (the likelihood of an event occurring)
    Reply
    Saturday night Oct 28

    Pittsburgh -110

    Arizona St +4.5

    Dodgers Over 8.5 (-110)

    1 unit each

    Probability (the likelihood of an event occurring)
     
    GuillaumeT
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    Posted: Oct. 28, 2017 - 6:55 PM ET #172

    Arizona +4.5 in NHL ?

    Reply

    Arizona +4.5 in NHL ?

     
    LANeurosis
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    Posted: Oct. 28, 2017 - 6:57 PM ET #173

    Quote Originally Posted by GuillaumeT:

    Arizona +4.5 in NHL ?


    College Football
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by GuillaumeT:

    Arizona +4.5 in NHL ?


    College Football
     
    GuillaumeT
    GuillaumeT
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    Posted: Oct. 28, 2017 - 7:06 PM ET #174

    I'm tailing for the Penguins , thanks for your work appreciate it ! clover

    Reply

    I'm tailing for the Penguins , thanks for your work appreciate it ! clover

     
     
    GuillaumeT
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    Posted: Oct. 28, 2017 - 7:12 PM ET #175

    Quote Originally Posted by LANeurosis:

    QUOTE Originally Posted by GuillaumeT: Arizona +4.5 in NHL ? College Football
    Thanks for the answer thumbs_up

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by LANeurosis:

    QUOTE Originally Posted by GuillaumeT: Arizona +4.5 in NHL ? College Football
    Thanks for the answer thumbs_up

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