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Lawton's Projections

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Posted: #176
Probability System
58-35 (+21.40 units)
62.37% Winners
1 unit each

NHL: 24-10 (+13.40 units)
NFL: 10-5 (+4.90 units)
MLB: 9-5 (+4.20 units)
CFB: 11-9 (+1.10 units)
NBA: 4-6 (-3.20 units)

Pending Oct 28

Arizona St +4.5

Dodgers Over 8.5 (-110)

Penguins (-110)

1 unit each

I'm going to say this very nicely, do not call a game of mine as being a win, until its actually over, thanks..

 
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Posted: #177
Thank you for sharing.  
 
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Posted: #178
I would say if you do not know that Arizona St is college football, maybe you shouldn’t be wagering. Only rebuttal to that is if Lawton1 makes College basketball plays.  Just my opinion.  I like the NHL picks myself. Thanks Lawton1.
 
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Posted: #179
Probability System
58-38 (+18.10 units)
60.42% Winners
(-105) avg juice
1 unit each

NHL: 24-11 (+12.30 units)
NFL: 10-5 (+4.90 units)
MLB: 9-6 (+3.10 units)
CFB: 11-10 (0.00 units)
NBA: 4-6 (-3.20 units)

Sunday Oct 29

Jets Under 43.5

Buffalo (-125) NFL

Washington Over 46.5

1 unit each


Couple things

This takes us thru 99 plays in October, I will be back this afternoon with play 100..

If this is going to be a long running thread (and I plan on it), I have 2 goals that I want to hit, I will evaluate these every 100 plays..

1. Win percentage of 57.14% or better, right now we are at 60.42%
2. Average juice of (-112) or better, right now we are (-105).

This is what I want to maintain (longterm) for the Super System that I hope to create..

Good luck and my best to everyone.. Back with play #100 later..
 
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Posted: #180
Damn it, I just took the Falcons.
 
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Posted: #181
Super System
57.14% Winners or better
(-112) avg juice or better
2.5% BR on each

Play all them
Flat bet them
Evaluate every 100 plays
Recalculate BR every 3 months

This is the business model that I'm planning to follow, if this works longterm.. So far, so good thru 96 plays.

I'd also like to point out, notice how each sport is doing, there is something called (regression to the mean) and it definitely comes into play.. CFB was running 4-9, since its went 7-1... I also wish I could hit 68% of my NHL wagers but we know that's not going to happen.. Also NBA won't stay at 40% either, keep those things in mind but I'd advise to follow all or follow none.. Picking and choosing, usually doesnt work.  
 
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Posted: #182
Probability System
59-39 (+18.00 units)
60.20% Winners
1 unit each

NHL: 24-11 (+12.30 units)
NFL: 11-6 (+4.80 units)
MLB: 9-6 (+3.10 units)
CFB: 11-0 (0.00 units)
NBA: 4-6 (-3.20 units)

Pending
Redskins Over 46.5

Adding

Brooklyn Under 222

Capitals +125

1 unit each

Been putting a lot of time into the NBA, hope it starts to pay off..

Good luck guys
 
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Posted: #183

Quote Originally Posted by Lawton1:

Probability System59-39 (+18.00 units)60.20% Winners1 unit eachNHL: 24-11 (+12.30 units)NFL: 11-6 (+4.80 units)MLB: 9-6 (+3.10 units)CFB: 11-0 (0.00 units)NBA: 4-6 (-3.20 units)PendingRedskins Over 46.5AddingBrooklyn Under 222Capitals +1251 unit eachBeen putting a lot of time into the NBA, hope it starts to pay off..Good luck guys

 

Thanks, Lawton! Couple of good close games there this afternoon @NFL...Let's roll.

 
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Posted: #184
60-40 (+17.90 units)
60.00% Winners

Hung on to 60% through the first 100 plays..

Starting the next 100 plays tonight..

Pending
Capitals +125

1 unit risk



 
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Posted: #185
Probability System
60-41 (+16.90 units)
59.41% Winners
(-105) avg juice
1 unit each

NHL: 24-12 (+11.30 units)
NFL: 12-6 (+5.80 units)
MLB: 9-6 (+3.10 units)
CFB: 11-10 (0.00 units)
NBA: 4-7 (-4.30 units)

Not bad through the first 101 plays.. A $100 bettor would be up $1690.. A $200 bettor would be up $3380.. So not too shabby.. 

I'll be back later today with Mondays card..


Lawton1
 
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Posted: #186
October 30

Vegas Over 5.5 (-110)

Montreal Over 5.5 (-105)

Vancouver (+115)

1 unit each


Good luck guys
 
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Posted: #187
 
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Posted: #188
Tailed the MON/OTT over. 
 
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Posted: #189
What is your record for NHL totals? 
 
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Posted: #190
24-12 before tonight. 
 
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Posted: #191

Quote Originally Posted by Lar1212:

24-12 before tonight.

I believe that number includes sides, as well. Lawton will confirm.

On a similar note Lawton: will you using a different W/L for the upcoming 100 plays? Or shall I track seperately?

Great work tonight thus far!

 
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Posted: #192

Damn man GJ . Wish I tailed more #noballs

 
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Posted: #193
Oh. Totals. My bad. Yeah, that's all NHL plays. 
 
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Posted: #194
Probability System
62-42 (+17.90 units)
(-105) avg juice
1 unit each

NHL: 26-13 (+12.30 units)
NFL: 12-6 (+5.80 units)
MLB: 9-6 (+3.10 units)
CFB: 11-10 (0.00 units)
NBA: 4-7 (-4.30 units)

Back later with plays for Halloween


 
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Posted: #195
 
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Posted: #196
October 31

Vegas Over 6 (+100)

Winnipeg +130

Milwaukee +110 NBA

1 unit each
 
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Posted: #197
Strangley enough all your thin ML faves are always -110 at my book. I took -110 with 1.5 pts.
 
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Posted: #198
Nice Lawton. Been tailing NHL for a couple of weeks.  Pick games I would never pick. Keep it up.
 
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Posted: #199
Probability System
64-43 (+19.20 units)
59.81% Winners
(-105) avg juice
1 unit each

NHL: 28-13 (+14.60 units)
NFL: 12-6 (+5.80 units)
MLB: 9-6 (+3.10 units)
CFB: 11-10 (0.00 units)
NBA: 4-8 (-5.30 units)

Back later today with plays for Nov 1


Probability (the likelihood of an event occurring)
 
 
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Posted: #200

Hey Lawton.. Been following from the beginning, doing awesome work!! Keep it up. I sent a friend request if you don’t mind I’d like to message you a few questions 

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