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    All Forums | NHL Betting Forum

    Lawton's Projections

    «First Previous 8910 ... 151617 Next Last»
    Lawton1
    3DTV
    Hues10
    Lar1212
    JamieR44
    ...
    Participants:
    Search
    Views: 59138
    Posts: 408
    «First Previous 8910 ... 151617 Next Last»
     
    Lawton1
    Lawton1
    Banned
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    Joined: Jul, 2017
    Posts: 630
    Posted: Oct. 28, 2017 - 7:28 PM ET #176

    Probability System
    58-35 (+21.40 units)
    62.37% Winners
    1 unit each

    NHL: 24-10 (+13.40 units)
    NFL: 10-5 (+4.90 units)
    MLB: 9-5 (+4.20 units)
    CFB: 11-9 (+1.10 units)
    NBA: 4-6 (-3.20 units)

    Pending Oct 28

    Arizona St +4.5

    Dodgers Over 8.5 (-110)

    Penguins (-110)

    1 unit each

    I'm going to say this very nicely, do not call a game of mine as being a win, until its actually over, thanks..

    Reply
    Probability System
    58-35 (+21.40 units)
    62.37% Winners
    1 unit each

    NHL: 24-10 (+13.40 units)
    NFL: 10-5 (+4.90 units)
    MLB: 9-5 (+4.20 units)
    CFB: 11-9 (+1.10 units)
    NBA: 4-6 (-3.20 units)

    Pending Oct 28

    Arizona St +4.5

    Dodgers Over 8.5 (-110)

    Penguins (-110)

    1 unit each

    I'm going to say this very nicely, do not call a game of mine as being a win, until its actually over, thanks..

     
    3DTV
    3DTV
    Prospect
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    Joined: Jan, 2012
    Posts: 382
    Posted: Oct. 28, 2017 - 8:16 PM ET #177

    Thank you for sharing.  
    Reply
    Thank you for sharing.  
     
    Hues10
    Hues10
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    Posts: 53
    Posted: Oct. 29, 2017 - 5:13 AM ET #178

    I would say if you do not know that Arizona St is college football, maybe you shouldn’t be wagering. Only rebuttal to that is if Lawton1 makes College basketball plays.  Just my opinion.  I like the NHL picks myself. Thanks Lawton1.
    Reply
    I would say if you do not know that Arizona St is college football, maybe you shouldn’t be wagering. Only rebuttal to that is if Lawton1 makes College basketball plays.  Just my opinion.  I like the NHL picks myself. Thanks Lawton1.
     
    Lawton1
    Lawton1
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    Posts: 630
    Posted: Oct. 29, 2017 - 10:49 AM ET #179

    Probability System
    58-38 (+18.10 units)
    60.42% Winners
    (-105) avg juice
    1 unit each

    NHL: 24-11 (+12.30 units)
    NFL: 10-5 (+4.90 units)
    MLB: 9-6 (+3.10 units)
    CFB: 11-10 (0.00 units)
    NBA: 4-6 (-3.20 units)

    Sunday Oct 29

    Jets Under 43.5

    Buffalo (-125) NFL

    Washington Over 46.5

    1 unit each


    Couple things

    This takes us thru 99 plays in October, I will be back this afternoon with play 100..

    If this is going to be a long running thread (and I plan on it), I have 2 goals that I want to hit, I will evaluate these every 100 plays..

    1. Win percentage of 57.14% or better, right now we are at 60.42%
    2. Average juice of (-112) or better, right now we are (-105).

    This is what I want to maintain (longterm) for the Super System that I hope to create..

    Good luck and my best to everyone.. Back with play #100 later..
    Reply
    Probability System
    58-38 (+18.10 units)
    60.42% Winners
    (-105) avg juice
    1 unit each

    NHL: 24-11 (+12.30 units)
    NFL: 10-5 (+4.90 units)
    MLB: 9-6 (+3.10 units)
    CFB: 11-10 (0.00 units)
    NBA: 4-6 (-3.20 units)

    Sunday Oct 29

    Jets Under 43.5

    Buffalo (-125) NFL

    Washington Over 46.5

    1 unit each


    Couple things

    This takes us thru 99 plays in October, I will be back this afternoon with play 100..

    If this is going to be a long running thread (and I plan on it), I have 2 goals that I want to hit, I will evaluate these every 100 plays..

    1. Win percentage of 57.14% or better, right now we are at 60.42%
    2. Average juice of (-112) or better, right now we are (-105).

    This is what I want to maintain (longterm) for the Super System that I hope to create..

    Good luck and my best to everyone.. Back with play #100 later..
     
    Lar1212
    Lar1212
    All-Star
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    Joined: Jan, 2009
    Posts: 12908
    Posted: Oct. 29, 2017 - 11:06 AM ET #180

    Damn it, I just took the Falcons.
    Reply
    Damn it, I just took the Falcons.
     
    Lawton1
    Lawton1
    Banned
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    Joined: Jul, 2017
    Posts: 630
    Posted: Oct. 29, 2017 - 11:33 AM ET #181

    Super System
    57.14% Winners or better
    (-112) avg juice or better
    2.5% BR on each

    Play all them
    Flat bet them
    Evaluate every 100 plays
    Recalculate BR every 3 months

    This is the business model that I'm planning to follow, if this works longterm.. So far, so good thru 96 plays.

    I'd also like to point out, notice how each sport is doing, there is something called (regression to the mean) and it definitely comes into play.. CFB was running 4-9, since its went 7-1... I also wish I could hit 68% of my NHL wagers but we know that's not going to happen.. Also NBA won't stay at 40% either, keep those things in mind but I'd advise to follow all or follow none.. Picking and choosing, usually doesnt work.  
    Reply
    Super System
    57.14% Winners or better
    (-112) avg juice or better
    2.5% BR on each

    Play all them
    Flat bet them
    Evaluate every 100 plays
    Recalculate BR every 3 months

    This is the business model that I'm planning to follow, if this works longterm.. So far, so good thru 96 plays.

    I'd also like to point out, notice how each sport is doing, there is something called (regression to the mean) and it definitely comes into play.. CFB was running 4-9, since its went 7-1... I also wish I could hit 68% of my NHL wagers but we know that's not going to happen.. Also NBA won't stay at 40% either, keep those things in mind but I'd advise to follow all or follow none.. Picking and choosing, usually doesnt work.  
     
    Lawton1
    Lawton1
    Banned
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    Joined: Jul, 2017
    Posts: 630
    Posted: Oct. 29, 2017 - 4:06 PM ET #182

    Probability System
    59-39 (+18.00 units)
    60.20% Winners
    1 unit each

    NHL: 24-11 (+12.30 units)
    NFL: 11-6 (+4.80 units)
    MLB: 9-6 (+3.10 units)
    CFB: 11-0 (0.00 units)
    NBA: 4-6 (-3.20 units)

    Pending
    Redskins Over 46.5

    Adding

    Brooklyn Under 222

    Capitals +125

    1 unit each

    Been putting a lot of time into the NBA, hope it starts to pay off..

    Good luck guys
    Reply
    Probability System
    59-39 (+18.00 units)
    60.20% Winners
    1 unit each

    NHL: 24-11 (+12.30 units)
    NFL: 11-6 (+4.80 units)
    MLB: 9-6 (+3.10 units)
    CFB: 11-0 (0.00 units)
    NBA: 4-6 (-3.20 units)

    Pending
    Redskins Over 46.5

    Adding

    Brooklyn Under 222

    Capitals +125

    1 unit each

    Been putting a lot of time into the NBA, hope it starts to pay off..

    Good luck guys
     
    JamieR44
    JamieR44
    Rookie
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Nov, 2015
    Posts: 652
    Posted: Oct. 29, 2017 - 4:10 PM ET #183

    Quote Originally Posted by Lawton1:

    Probability System59-39 (+18.00 units)60.20% Winners1 unit eachNHL: 24-11 (+12.30 units)NFL: 11-6 (+4.80 units)MLB: 9-6 (+3.10 units)CFB: 11-0 (0.00 units)NBA: 4-6 (-3.20 units)PendingRedskins Over 46.5AddingBrooklyn Under 222Capitals +1251 unit eachBeen putting a lot of time into the NBA, hope it starts to pay off..Good luck guys

     

    Thanks, Lawton! Couple of good close games there this afternoon @NFL...Let's roll.

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by Lawton1:

    Probability System59-39 (+18.00 units)60.20% Winners1 unit eachNHL: 24-11 (+12.30 units)NFL: 11-6 (+4.80 units)MLB: 9-6 (+3.10 units)CFB: 11-0 (0.00 units)NBA: 4-6 (-3.20 units)PendingRedskins Over 46.5AddingBrooklyn Under 222Capitals +1251 unit eachBeen putting a lot of time into the NBA, hope it starts to pay off..Good luck guys

     

    Thanks, Lawton! Couple of good close games there this afternoon @NFL...Let's roll.

     
    Lawton1
    Lawton1
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    Posts: 630
    Posted: Oct. 29, 2017 - 8:17 PM ET #184

    60-40 (+17.90 units)
    60.00% Winners

    Hung on to 60% through the first 100 plays..

    Starting the next 100 plays tonight..

    Pending
    Capitals +125

    1 unit risk



    Reply
    60-40 (+17.90 units)
    60.00% Winners

    Hung on to 60% through the first 100 plays..

    Starting the next 100 plays tonight..

    Pending
    Capitals +125

    1 unit risk



     
    Lawton1
    Lawton1
    Banned
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Jul, 2017
    Posts: 630
    Posted: Oct. 30, 2017 - 9:27 AM ET #185

    Probability System
    60-41 (+16.90 units)
    59.41% Winners
    (-105) avg juice
    1 unit each

    NHL: 24-12 (+11.30 units)
    NFL: 12-6 (+5.80 units)
    MLB: 9-6 (+3.10 units)
    CFB: 11-10 (0.00 units)
    NBA: 4-7 (-4.30 units)

    Not bad through the first 101 plays.. A $100 bettor would be up $1690.. A $200 bettor would be up $3380.. So not too shabby.. 

    I'll be back later today with Mondays card..


    Lawton1
    Reply
    Probability System
    60-41 (+16.90 units)
    59.41% Winners
    (-105) avg juice
    1 unit each

    NHL: 24-12 (+11.30 units)
    NFL: 12-6 (+5.80 units)
    MLB: 9-6 (+3.10 units)
    CFB: 11-10 (0.00 units)
    NBA: 4-7 (-4.30 units)

    Not bad through the first 101 plays.. A $100 bettor would be up $1690.. A $200 bettor would be up $3380.. So not too shabby.. 

    I'll be back later today with Mondays card..


    Lawton1
     
    Lawton1
    Lawton1
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    Posts: 630
    Posted: Oct. 30, 2017 - 12:07 PM ET #186

    October 30

    Vegas Over 5.5 (-110)

    Montreal Over 5.5 (-105)

    Vancouver (+115)

    1 unit each


    Good luck guys
    Reply
    October 30

    Vegas Over 5.5 (-110)

    Montreal Over 5.5 (-105)

    Vancouver (+115)

    1 unit each


    Good luck guys
     
    3DTV
    3DTV
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    Participation Meter
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    Posts: 382
    Posted: Oct. 30, 2017 - 7:44 PM ET #187

    Reply
     
    Lar1212
    Lar1212
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    Posted: Oct. 30, 2017 - 8:22 PM ET #188

    Tailed the MON/OTT over. 
    Reply
    Tailed the MON/OTT over. 
     
    3DTV
    3DTV
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    Posted: Oct. 30, 2017 - 9:13 PM ET #189

    What is your record for NHL totals? 
    Reply
    What is your record for NHL totals? 
     
    Lar1212
    Lar1212
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    Posted: Oct. 30, 2017 - 9:15 PM ET #190

    24-12 before tonight. 
    Reply
    24-12 before tonight. 
     
    JamieR44
    JamieR44
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    Posts: 652
    Posted: Oct. 30, 2017 - 9:32 PM ET #191

    Quote Originally Posted by Lar1212:

    24-12 before tonight.

    I believe that number includes sides, as well. Lawton will confirm.

    On a similar note Lawton: will you using a different W/L for the upcoming 100 plays? Or shall I track seperately?

    Great work tonight thus far!

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by Lar1212:

    24-12 before tonight.

    I believe that number includes sides, as well. Lawton will confirm.

    On a similar note Lawton: will you using a different W/L for the upcoming 100 plays? Or shall I track seperately?

    Great work tonight thus far!

     
    Viral72
    Viral72
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    Posts: 1013
    Posted: Oct. 30, 2017 - 9:34 PM ET #192

    Damn man GJ . Wish I tailed more #noballs

    Reply

    Damn man GJ . Wish I tailed more #noballs

     
    Lar1212
    Lar1212
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    Posted: Oct. 30, 2017 - 10:41 PM ET #193

    Oh. Totals. My bad. Yeah, that's all NHL plays. 
    Reply
    Oh. Totals. My bad. Yeah, that's all NHL plays. 
     
    Lawton1
    Lawton1
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    Posted: Oct. 31, 2017 - 7:47 AM ET #194

    Probability System
    62-42 (+17.90 units)
    (-105) avg juice
    1 unit each

    NHL: 26-13 (+12.30 units)
    NFL: 12-6 (+5.80 units)
    MLB: 9-6 (+3.10 units)
    CFB: 11-10 (0.00 units)
    NBA: 4-7 (-4.30 units)

    Back later with plays for Halloween


    Reply
    Probability System
    62-42 (+17.90 units)
    (-105) avg juice
    1 unit each

    NHL: 26-13 (+12.30 units)
    NFL: 12-6 (+5.80 units)
    MLB: 9-6 (+3.10 units)
    CFB: 11-10 (0.00 units)
    NBA: 4-7 (-4.30 units)

    Back later with plays for Halloween


     
    3DTV
    3DTV
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    Posted: Oct. 31, 2017 - 12:15 PM ET #195

    Reply
     
    Lawton1
    Lawton1
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    Posted: Oct. 31, 2017 - 2:08 PM ET #196

    October 31

    Vegas Over 6 (+100)

    Winnipeg +130

    Milwaukee +110 NBA

    1 unit each
    Reply
    October 31

    Vegas Over 6 (+100)

    Winnipeg +130

    Milwaukee +110 NBA

    1 unit each
     
    3DTV
    3DTV
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    Posted: Oct. 31, 2017 - 2:41 PM ET #197

    Strangley enough all your thin ML faves are always -110 at my book. I took -110 with 1.5 pts.
    Reply
    Strangley enough all your thin ML faves are always -110 at my book. I took -110 with 1.5 pts.
     
    Hues10
    Hues10
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    Joined: Jun, 2017
    Posts: 53
    Posted: Nov. 1, 2017 - 7:13 AM ET #198

    Nice Lawton. Been tailing NHL for a couple of weeks.  Pick games I would never pick. Keep it up.
    Reply
    Nice Lawton. Been tailing NHL for a couple of weeks.  Pick games I would never pick. Keep it up.
     
    Lawton1
    Lawton1
    Banned
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Jul, 2017
    Posts: 630
    Posted: Nov. 1, 2017 - 7:47 AM ET #199

    Probability System
    64-43 (+19.20 units)
    59.81% Winners
    (-105) avg juice
    1 unit each

    NHL: 28-13 (+14.60 units)
    NFL: 12-6 (+5.80 units)
    MLB: 9-6 (+3.10 units)
    CFB: 11-10 (0.00 units)
    NBA: 4-8 (-5.30 units)

    Back later today with plays for Nov 1


    Probability (the likelihood of an event occurring)
    Reply
    Probability System
    64-43 (+19.20 units)
    59.81% Winners
    (-105) avg juice
    1 unit each

    NHL: 28-13 (+14.60 units)
    NFL: 12-6 (+5.80 units)
    MLB: 9-6 (+3.10 units)
    CFB: 11-10 (0.00 units)
    NBA: 4-8 (-5.30 units)

    Back later today with plays for Nov 1


    Probability (the likelihood of an event occurring)
     
     
    lhudson420
    lhudson420
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Sep, 2014
    Posts: 13
    Posted: Nov. 1, 2017 - 10:30 AM ET #200

    Hey Lawton.. Been following from the beginning, doing awesome work!! Keep it up. I sent a friend request if you don’t mind I’d like to message you a few questions 

    Reply

    Hey Lawton.. Been following from the beginning, doing awesome work!! Keep it up. I sent a friend request if you don’t mind I’d like to message you a few questions 

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