Lawton's Projections

Chicago Over 5.5 (-120)

New Jersey +110

San Jose -135

1 unit each

Sorry but I didn't see a friend request, didn't know where to look.  Just ask me here..

If so, I'm surprised you are achieving vastly different records among the different sports. Any rationale why that might be?

Been working with models and programming since 2009.

I use a unique set of Power Ratings for each individual sport for my models, relying heavily on these for Money lines.. I have something very different for Totals.. 

Just recently I added probability and advanced forecasting to the equation...

I can't tell you why the NHL and NFL are killing it, nor can I tell you why the NBA is stinking it up right now.  But I can tell you that all will regress back to the MEAN, remember that.. 

I do expect a big upturn for the NBA, my data for this season is small right now... I will tell you this, my CBB totals are usually very good but it may take me to mid December to get there.. 

My business model...

8 betting days per week

57.14% Winners

(-112) avg juice at most

Plays limited to around 3, most of the time..

I'll be around for a while, follow along if you wish.. Fire away with any questions that you may have..

I find some similarities in our systems. 

we don`t cap games 

we use numbers and numbers only

we both understand regression to the means

It took me a bit of time to realise how important regression  actually is. 

It is now is a vital part of my models,, i use color coded numbers to highlight the extreme numbers.. Too high....too low   =  reverse

I also use regression on the performance of my models... Very good results so far.

I`m still a rookie sports gambler, but i am a long time numbers guy.

Keep on rolling, 

66-44 (+20.10 units)

60.00% Winners

(-105) avg juice

1 unit each

NHL: 30-14 (+15.50 units)

NFL: 12-6 (+5.80 units)

MLB: 9-6 (+3.10 units)

CFB: 11-10 (0.00 units)

NBA: 4-8 (-5.30 units)

November 2

Winnipeg -110

Colorado +100

Jets Under 42.5 (NFL)

1 unit each

Check back this afternoon for any additions

Probability (the likelihood of an outcome occurring)

I do not handicap (except for extreme weather conditions or injuries), I have zero opinions on any play that I post.. I watch a little college football on weekends but not much else... I do keep up with things, as they play out.. 

I trust my models (numbers) and absolutely nothing else... What I have is a very unique way of doing this... It comes down to,,,, there are many things (stats) that are useless and then there are a few that you need to use, that should make you rich... I've said enough..

My best wishes to each of you..

68-45 (+21.00 units)

60.12% Winners

(-105) avg juice

1 unit each

NHL: 32-14 (+17.50 units)

NFL: 12-7 (+4.70 units)

MLB: 9-6 (+3.10 units)

CFB: 11-10 (0.00 units)

NBA: 4-8 (-5.30 units)

Nov 3

Anaheim -110

Utah Under 195

Florida Atlantic Over 67

1 unit each

My response to the poster above.... I advise flat betting all my plays, I play 2.5% of BR on each... Success for me, with this system is a win percentage of 57.14% or better, against an average line of no higher than (-112) over a very large number of plays.. Recalculate your wager amount every new quarter (3 months), simple as that... 

Yeah I noticed that FAU total dropped.. Nothing I can do about that. Hopefully the Over still cashes.... After a shaky start in the CFB, we are running at 7-1 over the last 8..

68-48 (+17.70 units)

58.62% Winners

(-105) avg juice

1 unit each

NHL: 32-15 (+16.40 units)

NFL: 12-7 (+4.70 units)

MLB: 9-6 (+3.10 units)

CFB: 11-11 (-1.10 units)

NBA: 4-9 (-6.40 units)

116 plays in the books

Overall win %%% is in line

The average juice is looking great

The play volume is right in line

But by breaking down the individual sports by record, you can really see what's going on.. 

Back with Saturdays first card...