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Lawton's Projections

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Posted: #101
Like yourself, i am also a numbers guy.
I honestly think that it`s the only way to go.

I respect those who cap games, it`s hard work,  but once you dabble in numbers and stick to these numbers, i just feel you can`lose

I think that gut feelings are the gamblers worse enemy,

I like my numbers system, and have full confidence in it. I never let myself be influenced by any form of handicapping.

Keep up the good work
 
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Posted: #102

Assume those were the picks for Sunday. On to monday?

 
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Posted: #103
Probability System
45-28 (+16.90 units)
61.64% Winners
1 unit each

NHL: 19-7 (+11.90 units)
NFL: 10-5 (+4.90 units)
MLB: 8-5 (+3.20 units)
NBA: 1-2 (-1.20 units)
CFB: 7-9 (-2.90 units)

Pending Sunday night

Pelicans (-160)

Sorry I didn't get back quicker, I take a break on Sunday afternoons. No further plays today. 


 
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Posted: #104

Mad I didn't trust you on the Chargers.

Debating the Pelicans now.

 
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Posted: #105

Quote Originally Posted by Lawton1:

My goal has been for some time now to create a Super System that can hit 57.14% winners, against an average -110 line, over a very long time period. I will use Totals and Moneylines almost exclusively to do this.

 

Won't playing ML not be equal to -110 in the long run though?

 
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Posted: #106
I'm just looking at a longterm average of -110... Most Totals will carry this and I'll have dogs and faves on the ML.. Look at record of 45-28 (+16.90 units) my average line is around -101, much better than -110..
 
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Posted: #107
Probability System
46-28 (+17.90 units)
62.16% Winners
1 unit each

NHL: 19-7 (+11.90 units)
NFL: 10-5 (+4.90 units)
MLB: 8-5 (+3.20 units)
NBA: 2-2 (-0.20 units)
CFB: 7-9 (-2.90 units)

Pro Sports (39-19)

Releasing Mondays card later today

Probability (the likelihood of an outcome occurring)


 
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Posted: #108

Quote Originally Posted by Lar1212:

Mad I didn't trust you on the Chargers. Debating the Pelicans now.

 

Picking and choosing in a system like this is tough, my opinion, as it's generally gonna run two of three winners, or slightly less...thus you really need to be all in, or all out.

Not saying I play every pick exactly as laid out (played points on the Pelicans last night, not ML, for example), but I think playing all the games as suggested is the better/best bet. Maybe take the average bet down a tad, if you're concerned about managing the bank roll.

 
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Posted: #109
Good advice. I did take the Pelicans ML on an open, two team parlay, because of bankroll issues. I learned my lesson with the Chargers. 
 
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Posted: #110
Monday Oct 23

San Jose (+110)

Milwaukee Over 200.5

Denver Nuggets (-160) ML

1 unit each
 
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Posted: #111
 
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Posted: #112
BOL leaning on the Sharks as well 
 
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Posted: #113
Future suggestion: can you give your % probability for each play?
 
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Posted: #114
Thanks guys, good luck to each of you.

I don't want to list the %%% on each play... I'm only going to list the high %%%% plays, occasionally I'll list that but by me listing that, it could open up a can of worms... 
 
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Posted: #115

No problem Let's get it tonight.

 
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Posted: #116
I cant believe i fell for denver ml to bust my parlay i dont even bet NBA. Never again
 
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Posted: #117
Probability System
47-30 (+16.30 units)
61.04% Winners
1 unit each

NHL: 20-7 (+13.00 units)
NFL: 10-5 (+4.90 units)
MLB: 8-5 (+3.20 units)
NBA: 2-4 (-2.90 units)
CFB: 7-9 (-2.90 units)

Back later with Tuesdays plays
 
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Posted: #118
October 24

Tampa Bay +110

Dallas -130

Florida Over 5.5 (-110)

1 unit each


 
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Posted: #119
Lets get a sweep tonight, 
 
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Posted: #120
 
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Posted: #121

There is always tomorrow for a sweep. bigsmile

 
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Posted: #122
Probability System
49-31 (+17.10 units)
61.25% Winners
1 unit each

NHL: 22-8 (+13.80 units)
NFL: 10-5 (+4.90 units)
MLB: 8-5 (+3.20 units)
NBA: 2-4 (-2.90 units)
CFB: 7-9 (-2.90 units)

Oct 25

Astros +100

Charlotte +115 

Detroit +110

1 unit each



 
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Posted: #123
Quote Originally Posted by 3DTV:

There is always tomorrow for a sweep. bigsmile



I'll take two of three any day/night!

Thanks, Lawton.


 
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Posted: #124

Can you clarify NBA or NFL if you don't mind. 

 
 
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Posted: #125
Quote Originally Posted by 3DTV:

Can you clarify NBA or NFL if you don't mind. 



Astros = MLB

Charlotte and Detroit = NBA

Lawton puts out *daily* picks, if I'm not mistaken. No NFL on Wednesday nights.

Oddly enough, my book isn't showing ML for NBA games...Strange...May need to play points, which is fine, I suppose, since each is favorite.
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