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Lawton's Projections

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Prospect
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Posted: #76
Keep up the good work. Good luck today.
 
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Posted: #77

On all three with you tonight. Let's get it. 

 
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Posted: #78
Probability System
39-26 (+12.15 units)
60.00% Winners
1 unit each

NHL: 17-6 (+11.20 units)
NFL: 9-4 (+4.85 units)
MLB: 8-5 (+3.20 units)
NBA: 1-2 (-1.20 units)
CFB: 4-9 (-5.90 units)

Pro Sports (35-17)

Check back soon for Saturdays first card.
 
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Posted: #79
October 21

Philadelphia -120 NHL

Maryland Over 50.5
Syracuse +17.5

1 unit each

A second card will be posted later today.


 
Prospect
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Posted: #80
Like the phi play. Good luck
 
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Posted: #81

Tailing you on NHL. Great run, buddy.

 
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Posted: #82
Probability System
41-26 (+14.15 units)
61.19% Winners
1 unit each

NHL: 18-6 (+12.20 units)
NFL: 9-4 (+4.85 units)
MLB: 8-5 (+3.20 units)
NBA: 1-2 (-1.20 units)
CFB: 5-9 (-4.90 units)

Pro Sports (36-17)

Pending
Syracuse +17.5

Saturday night

Bruins Over 5.5 (-120)
Blues (-130)

Tulane Over 54 

1 unit each

Probability (the likelihood an event will occur)
 
Prospect
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Posted: #83
Grateful for what you are doing, thank you for sharing.

Curious why NFL picks do not come out till Sunday. Does your model require every bit of info? Would you mind sharing what makes a pick a bet? I assume it is a percentage thing. How does percentage of outcome work with juiced lines too?
 
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Posted: #84
Thanks

My best answer for the NFL picks, I simply take 1 day at a time.. I've been in this biz since Aug 1986, almost daily... It can be overwhelming if you let it... 

I have different models for different sports (of course), I also have something for totals.. I am by no means using 1 model... But over the past few weeks, I have identified a way to use probability and advanced forecasting with the models... I'm trying to release only the Top plays... If I tried to write everything, I'd be here a while... Just know this, if I release a play, I think it will win... Also I'm not comfortable with a lot of plays pending, that statement comes from over 30yrs doing this daily...

Good luck and feel free to follow, I'll be here a while... 
 
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Posted: #85
I'm a numbers guy and statistics nut. I value power ratings very high but only my own set... I really don't value anyone's opinion on a game, not even mine, don't take that as arrogant... I don't believe it gut feelings or the due factor... I do almost no handicapping, except for injuries or weather... I watch few games, don't need to... I keep up with scores constantly... My work is updated daily... Sorry for rambling, just letting you know where I'm coming from... For me its all about building a better model and trusting it completely and now mixing in probability of an outcome to create a super system.. Guess its time to glance at the nfl, my work for today is finished..
 
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Posted: #86
System has been solid in NHL...Like the Blues pick tonight...Almost want to pull the trigger on the GL...It's about time Vegas started their regression.

Thanks for all the work thus far.

JR
 
Prospect
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Posted: #87

Thanks for the response. I'm tailing 100%

 
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Posted: #88
No problem guys, I wanted to say follow the CFB today, no way it was going to stay at 4-9... 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #89

Thank you so much for the work you've been doing !

I'm already down with CBJ but will definately take Blues as well

Good luck guys clover

 
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Posted: #90

Quote Originally Posted by Lawton1:

Blues (-130)
 

I'm new to this forum can someone explain me what does that number (-130) mean ? 

 
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Posted: #91
There you go boys, Bruins Over cashing... 
 
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Posted: #92
Probability System
44-27 (+16.85 units)
61.97% Winners
1 unit each

NHL: 19-7 (+11.90 units)
NFL: 9-4 (+4.85 units)
MLB: 8-5 (+3.20 units)
NBA: 1-2 (-1.20 units)
CFB: 7-9 (-2.90 units)

Back with Sundays card soon


 
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Posted: #93
October 22

Rams Over 46

Chargers (+115)

NO Pelicans (-160)

1 unit each

Probability (the likelihood an event will occur)
 
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Posted: #94

Love the over. I'll be on it for sure now.

Hate the Chargers. Might lay off DEN now.

Lots of juice on NO instead of laying a three-pointer. Might pass or just lay the chalk. 

clover

 
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Posted: #95
Good luck

I have the Rams (today) Over 46, 65.10% of the time.

I have the Chargers winning this game today 60.40% of the time and I'm getting +115 with them.. 

As for NO (-160), this play goes back to my original setup to start the season and is highly based on my ratings... I could have laid -3.5 (-110) but I got an even bet for .50 more cents.. Can't buy 3.5 pts for 50 cents... I have NO winning this game 66.80% of the time...

Good luck to all
 
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Posted: #96
My goal has been for some time now to create a Super System that can hit 57.14% winners, against an average -110 line, over a very long time period. I will use Totals and Moneylines almost exclusively to do this. 
 
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Posted: #97
That's what I figured. Thanks for the feedback!
 
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Posted: #98

Curious how I should go about getting these when my lines are different? I got -175 on NO. And -110 for chargers.

 
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Posted: #99
I've played with a couple local books, in the south for many years.. I have a good line on Chargers, you have a bad line on Pelicans.. I'm seeing -165 most everywhere... I'm just posting what I have, I'd play them and not squibble over small differences. Some times, I have the worst of it.. 
 
 
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Posted: #100

Thx for the quick response

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