Public Indicator Calculations 2023

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@HooAlum

Friday Update - lot of new games added, especially late night tomorrow.  I'll try to do a late one tonight and update ILL-KU if it changes before gametime

Kansas (3 units): low ticket favorite and line movement (this could easily all go away as a warning)

NCSt-Notre Dame (No Bet): low Ticket favorite balanced by sharp action

Nebraska (1 unit): lopsided wagering outweighs sharp action (yes, everyone is on the Buffs including the sharps)

Utah (2 units): low ticket favorite and lopsided wagering overrides sharp indicator

Texas A&M (1 unit): Sharp Play

Iowa St-Iowa (NO Bet): NEW GAME Low ticket favorite balanced by sharp action

Ole Miss (4 units): Sharp play and small SKS outweighs reverse movement

UTEP (5 Units): lopsided wagering, low ticket favorite and sharp play (I am personally VERY wary of this game given its below the radar nature - but the indicators are pretty clear)

Texas Tech (2 units): staring sharp play outweighs low ticket favorite

Boise St-UCF (No Bet): indicators recessed

Alabama (1 unit): low ticket and low handle favorite outweighs increasingly strong sharp action

Washington St (1 unit): NEW GAME sharp action outweighs low ticket favorite

Arizona (1 unit):NEW GAME sharp action

Arizona St (1 unit): NEW GAME reverse movement and sharp play outweighs low ticket favorite

Southern Cal (3 units): NEW GAME low ticket and low be favorite

Cal (1 unit): NEW GAME sharp action outweighs low ticket favorite

Hoo,

Can you explain the KANSAS pick? This is a primetime game with the public ALL OVER Kansas to cover a small spread against an inferior appearing opponent. Everyone, their uncle, their uncle's dog, and their uncle's dog's uncle are on Kansas. When you see the lopsidedness to this degree on a primetime game, it is usually a good idea to stop and look around.

@HooAlum

 Surprised on the lack of action tonight.  Very modest play.  Right now tomorrow is not lining up to be a big day either.  One of the lowest wager indicator days at this point I can remember.  That despite what I view as a great slate of games and Nebraska Colorado has a greater handle than almost every NFL game.

As for the heavy action on Kansas,  I absolutely do not see it in my sources. They are all in the margins.  Yea slightly more but nothing extraordinary (Colorado is extraordinary by getting at least a 3:1 handle and ticket count at every book).  Most books had the Kansas ticket count below 50% until midday.  That has gone away and thus why the number pulls back from 3 units to 1 unit.

Kansas (1 unit): Line movement

@HooAlum

Friday night update.  I will try to do an early one tomorrow on the overnight as I already know it will be tough to get announcements close to noon (or 11am in the case of Vandy-Wake).  See Patrick Everson's tweet storm at 10am EST.  It has really great relevant info on gameday if I cannot update.  Speaking of Vandy-Wake, the handle is still low and it might not qualify but if it does the numbers really like the Demon Deacons.  We are talking low ticket and handle favorite and early start for traveling team from western time zone - remember it is 10am for the Vanderbilt kids.

@HooAlum

 Here is the results overnight.  I will update a little after noon today likely so apologize for noon mistakes and whether Vandy-Wake gets to the handle level (remember Wake is a nice big 4 unit play if it does)

NCSt-Notre Dame (No Bet): low Ticket favorite balanced by sharp action

Nebraska (2 units): reverse movement added to the Huskers side with lopsided wagering outweighs sharp action 

Baylor (1 units): west coast early start and sharp action outweighs low ticket favorite and lopsided wagering

Texas A&M (1 unit): Low ticket favorite

Iowa St (1 unit): decent sharp action outweighs Low ticket favorite

Ole Miss (4 units): Sharp play, low ticket favorite and small SKS outweighs reverse movement

Northwestern-UTEP (No Bet): Well so much for that once big play.  Once it jumped the fence everything changed

Texas Tech (3 units): strong sharp play

Boise St-UCF (No Bet): indicators recessed

Alabama (1 unit): low ticket and low handle favorite outweighs increasingly strong sharp action

Washington St (1 unit): sharp action outweighs low ticket favorite

Arizona (1 unit): sharp action

Arizona St-Oklahoma Sy (No Bet): reverse movement balanced with low ticket favorite

Stanford (2 units): sharp action

Cal (3 units): strong sharp action 

@HooAlum

Not so sure about the Baylor game.  Baylor is 1300 miles from the east coast.  And Utah is not exactly on the west coast either.  I would think a team like Oregon or UCLA, traveling to the east coast to play Syracuse or Florida State, playing an early start, would be a better indicator of this type of play.  Just my opinion.

Good luck either way.

@nmgolf57

 about time zones not miles 

@HooAlum

 was able to get to a computer before noon start times and apparently an early stoppage in Wake Vandy, which is ON

Wake (4 units) - Early travel start and low ticket and handle on favroite

NCSt-Notre Dame (No Bet): low Ticket favorite balanced by sharp action

Nebraska (3 units): reverse movement added to the Huskers side with lopsided wagering (sharps are now even BUT I am skeptical of this game - so much wagering I think  indicators are skewed but we shall see).  If you dare grab it at 3, not 2.5

Baylor (1 units): west coast early start and sharp action outweighs low ticket favorite and lopsided wagering.

Purdue (2 units): NEW GAME, came in late due to it jumping the fence on heavy Boiler wagering so steam and that line movement play.  There are still places you can get Purdue as a dog.  Do it

@HooAlum

3:30 games

Miami-Texas A&M (NO Bet) - indicators no longer present

Iowa St (1 unit): sharp action outweighs low ticket favorite

Ole miss (6 units): turning into the big play of the day.  Caesars/William Hill lstil at 7.5.  It is flying everywhere else to double digits.  One off the reasons it is a big play.  Line movement, sharp action, minor SKS low ticket favorite.

UTEP-Northwestern (NO Bet) - balanced between sharps and steam

@HooAlum

Evening Update - Cal Auburn starting to be interesting.  Might be a good last ditch pick late night depending on how your day goes

Texas Tech (4 units): strong sharp play

Boise St-UCF (No Bet): indicators recessed

Alabama (2 unit): low ticket and low handle favorite outweighs sharp action

Washington St (3 units): sharp action

Arizona (1 unit): sharp action

Arizona St (1 unit): reverse movement balanced with low ticket favorite

Stanford (1 unit): sharp action

Cal (3 units): strong sharp action 

@HooAlum

 The only late night change was that Cal pulled back a little from 3 to 2.

For a quick moment it looked like it flipped from Stanford to Southern Cal and given the score I wish it had, but alas it did not.  That was is destined to be a loser but only 1 unit.  Overall the week is already a winner thanks to Ole Miss winning the big game of the week (and I got it at 7.5 so did not need the scoop and score that everyone else took advantage of).  However it would have been a GREAT week if not for the pick six in the Oregon-Texas Tech game.  That one hurt!

@HooAlum

Much more successful week brings the overall season back to even keel

RECORD 16-18 (7-6 last week)

WAGERING 90.3 units won on 89 wagered (1.46% profit)

Indicator Update

SKS: 100% (1-0)

Steam: 66.67%

Low Bet Favorite: 61.11%

Sharp Analysis: 54.56%

Travel western Early Kickoff: 50%

Lopsided wagering: 44.44%

Reverse Movement: 33.33%

Over/Under Squeeze: 33.33%

Line Movement: 30.77%

My head hurts from trying to understand you method to madness. Appreciate the hard work you put in and keep up the winning.

Thanks for the time and effort you put in.

@HooAlum

Tuesday Analysis (this will definitely change - particularly the number of lopsided betting calls as those will often even out over time).  Solate will likely add games

Memphis (1 unit): lopsided wagering and low ticket favorite outweighs strong over/under squeeze

Illinois (6 units): lopsided wagering, sharp action and strong over/under squeeze

Kansas St (4 units): lopsided wagering and Low Ticket favorite

North Carolina (4 units): lopsided wagering and low ticket favorite

South Carolina-Georgia (NO Bet)

Washington (1 unit): line movement and sharp action outweighs lopsided wagering

Florida-Tennessee (N0 Bet)

Pittsburgh (1 unit): low ticket favorite

Colorado St (3 units): lopsided wagering and sharp action

I will update the numbers tonight but as a preview they have gone wacky.  A LOT of favorite betting this week leads to a lot of heavy underdog play.  Symbolic of what I am talking about is a big play right out of the gate tonight.

Navy (7 units): lopsided wagering, reverse movement and heavy over/under squeeze (it is a service academy of course there is).

This amount is way above what I would personally view this game as lopsided wagering very well could goo away by kickoff in 3 hours and the over/under squeeze screams service academy low scoring slog.  BUT the reverse movement is real so that gives me hope on this pick.  I just really am scared of the 28-6 drubbing here (the six being a TD and missed extra point) and the best at present you can get is 13.5 as it has left the 14 point cushion land it sat at yesterday.  But that also gives me hope because it is classic  reverse movement.  Everyone and the dollars are both on the Tigers but the line moves down????  That I why I will stick by it but man I personally hated the way Navy looked against the Irish, especially offensively and kicking field goals.  

Thursday Night Update

NEW GAME - Boston College (4 units): lopsided wagering and over/under squeeze

Illinois (7 units): lopsided wagering, sharp action and strong over/under squeeze

Missouri (8 units): lopsided wagering, line movement, reverse movement and sharp action

NEW GAME - LSU (1 unit): sharp action

NEW GAME - South Florida (1 unit): lopsided wagering outweighs line movement 

Minnesota (2 units): lopsided wagering

Georgia (1 unit):low ticket favorite

Washington (1 unit): line movement and sharp action outweighs lopsided wagering

Florida (2 units): sharp action

NEW GAME- James Madison (2 units): reverse movement 

Pittsburgh (3 units): line  movement and steam

NEW GAME- Purdue (1 unit): lopsided wagering outweighs sharp action

Colorado St (2 units): lopsided wagering and sharp action outweighs line movement

@HooAlum

Friday midday update and a few of the early games tomorrow are like the Navy game in that the underdog is ticking every indicator.  However, I will be away until noonish so may miss kickoff so if lopsided wagering goes away (which it more times than not does). At a minimum I will try to do one more update late tonight but just as a note, these high wagers are fast and furious but there is a bit of caution resting with them for the strength (I feel pretty good about the direction though).  Also, I am surprised Virginia-Maryland has not registered enough handle as the only major game while Utah St-Air Force has.  I am anticipating that game to add but may be away from a computer to see it happen in real time.  If it does hit it seems like a Cavalier play at +15 or greater.

NEW GAME - Utah State (1 unit): modest sharp action

Boston College (12 units): Biggest play in a year is ticking off every indicator. line movement with steam,  lopsided wagering both ticket and handle, strong reverse movement that move from 26.5 to 24.5 at most books with the uneven ticket and handle), strong over under squeeze

Illinois (9 units): Another huge play at noon. lopsided wagering both ticket and handle, strong sharp action, and strong over/under squeeze

Missouri (9 units): stop me if you heard this before.  Underdog at noon with lopsided wagering along with reverse line movement and sharp action

LSU (2 units): line movement and sharp action

South Florida (1 unit): lopsided wagering outweighs line movement

Minnesota (3 units): lopsided wagering and reverse movement outweighs sharp action

Georgia (2 units): sharp action

Washington (1 unit): line movement and sharp action outweighs lopsided wagering (it is tenuous lopsided so this could increase to the Huskies)

Florida (1 unit): very strong sharp action outweighs low ticket and handle favorite

James Madison (2 units): reverse movement (tenuous)

West Virginia (6 units): line movement with steam, jumping the fence and strong sharp action

Purdue-Syracuse (No Bet): No indicators

NEW GAME- BYU (1 unit): line movement

NEW GAME-TCU (2 units) low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp action

Colorado St-Colorado (No Bet) - Second week in a row we are staying away from Prime time's game.  It is such a unique circumstance I guess it is tough to evaluate the crazy betting patterns.

@HooAlum

 Here are the games for tomorrow.  This is the last comprehensive update but I will try to do noon slate before time but it will be close.  Things change (like th sharp action tonight pulled back tp nothing for example).  be very wary of lopsided wagering as for almost all it has gotten much closer to no longer being lopsided.

Boston College (12 units): Yes these first three are still there for now.  line movement with steam,  lopsided wagering both ticket and handle, strong reverse movement that move from 26.5 to 24.5 at most books with the uneven ticket and handle), strong over under squeeze

Illinois (9 units): Another huge play at noon. lopsided wagering both ticket and handle, strong sharp action, and strong over/under squeeze

Missouri (9 units): stop me if you heard this before.  Underdog at noon with lopsided wagering along with reverse line movement and sharp action

Mississippi St-LSU (No bet) indicators no longer present

South Florida (1 unit): lopsided wagering outweighs line movement

Minnesota (3 units): lopsided wagering (will likely be gone) and reverse movement outweighs sharp action

South Carolina (1 unit): small reverse movement

Washington (1 unit): line movement and sharp action outweighs lopsided wagering (it is tenuous lopsided so this could increase to the Huskies)

Florida (1 unit): very strong sharp action outweighs low ticket and handle favorite

James Madison (2 units): reverse movement (tenuous)

West Virginia (6 units): line movement with steam, jumping the fence and strong sharp action

Purdue-Syracuse (No Bet): No indicators

BYU (1 unit): line movement

TCU (2 units) low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp action

Colorado St-Colorado (No Bet) - Still no bet on the weekend's most wagered game

@HooAlum

Update for noon games and possibly last this morning.   As I suspected some pull back from the heavy unit plays but the biggest remains unchanged.  Some of the over/under squeeze in the others could pull back further s the totals are increasing. If you like it Caesars/William Hill is at 26 while the market mostly is 24.5.  Likely will not make a difference but 1 point and a half is a point and a half.  Always good to shop.

Boston College (12 units): line movement with steam,  lopsided wagering both ticket and handle, strong reverse movement that moved the line from 26.5 to 24.5 at most books with the uneven ticket and handle, strong over under squeeze

Illinois (8 units): Another huge play at noon. lopsided wagering both ticket and handle, strong sharp action, and strong over/under squeeze

Missouri (6 units): Reverse line movement and sharp action (lopsided wagering evened out overnight)

Mississippi St-LSU (No bet) indicators still not present

The pullback on reverse movement occurred s books are now closer to 25.5 so re3verse movement goes away.  Now BC is a 9 unit play

Reverse movement has come in late in Penn St-Illinois.  If the consensus line is 14 it is an Illinois play of 11 units.  If not the units drop back down.  Grab at 14.5 or higher regardless.  It is out there

Missouri still a 6 unit play

Still no bet on LSU-MS St

@HooAlum

 calling this out now.  Northwestern-Duke about to reach handle level and if it does huge Northwestern play.  Catch it 18.5 if interested

Illinois will have to find some offense somehow, somewhere.