Public Indicator Calculations 2023

@HooAlum

 Thanks for your responses. How did you fair this weekend?

@HooAlum

WEEKLY UPDATE: Record: 8-4 Revenue: 47.7 units on 34 placed

SEASON UPDATE Record: 35-28 (55.56%) Revenue: 217.8 units on 186 placed (17.1% profit)

First in season regression analysis and applied a few tweaks.  Most notably utilizing low handle more directly as opposed to simply an augment to other indicators.  This is similar to how line movement was treated.

This week's games are starting out strong in unit size but I expect a number to pull back.  Here is an early look nonetheless

Louisville (3 units) - sharp action

Oregon St (6 units) - Line movement SKS and very strong sharp action

Kentucky (3 units) sharp action & SKS

Colorado (5 units) - sharp action and west coast road team early start

Texas A&M (1 unit) - sharp action

Nebraska (5 units) - sharp action and over/under squeeze

Auburn (4 units) - sharp action and over/under squeeze

Texas (1 unit) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp action

Ole miss (3 units) - lopsided wagering and sharp action

Tennessee (2 units) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp action

Notre Dame (1 unit) - low handle favorite and minor SKS outweighs sharp action

********

Season Indicator Performance

SKS: 85.71%

Steam: 80%

Low Ticket Favorite: 62.5%

Low Handle Favorite: 62.5%

Sharp Action Analysis: 60.42%

Lopsided Wagering: 52.9%

West Coast Travel and early start: 50%

Reverse Movement: 50%

Bye Week Return: 50%

Line Movement: 46.7%

Over/Under Squeeze: 36.4%

@HooAlum

 Thanks for your analysis. Would you mind providing some insight into what over/under squeeze is and how you are indicating?

@HooAlum.   I was wondering if you ever do NFL games?    I enjoy checking out your threads by the way.     Thanks 

@FatBack417

 If I had the time I really would like to do the NFL.  I feel comfortable with college as I have done it for 5 years so have a lot of really good trend data built up over time.

As for an over/under squeeze it is when the total is low but the spread is high.  Mathematically there is simply not enough room to win both bets.  Something has to give.  Yeah, you can lose both when the underdog scores in teh single digits (see Iowa last week) but just a few random scores and the whole scheme is blown, withe the total or the spread (and often both).

Tonight is a very modest 1 unit play on Temple due to the line movement (low ticket and handle favorite went away).  Half the books are at 3.5 the other at 3 so make sure you get the book of your choice depending on who you go with as that is an important number to play with.

@HooAlum

Thursday night Update

Louisville (2 units) - sharp action

Oregon St (9 units) - Line movement low ticket favorite SKS and very strong sharp action - this is one of the biggest Pros versus Joe's I have seen this season

Clemson (6 units) - low ticket & handle favorite and lopsided wagering 

Kentucky (1 unit) sharp action & SKS outweighs reverse movement 

Colorado (4 units) - west coast road team early start

Texas A&M (2 units) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp action

Nebraska (3 units) - sharp action and over/under squeeze

Auburn (4 units) - sharp action and over/under squeeze

Texas (2 units) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp action

Ole miss-LSU (No Bet) - No Indicators

Tennessee (1 unit) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp action

Notre Dame (1 unit) -minor SKS

Arizona-Washington (No bet) - steam balanced by lopsided wagering

@HooAlum

Here ate the games tonight.,  The first one has bounced around but the second has remained and may be the biggest play of the weekend 

NC State (2 units) - sharp movement flipped

Oregon St (10 units) - line movement, low ticket and handle favorite, strong sharp action and SKS.  FanDuel is the last holdout at -3.5.  May be a good idea to grab as I bet it will be 4 before kickoff

How about Cincy over BYU?

@HooAlum

Nice to hang on by a half a point with the Wolfpack and now that ugly slugfest in Corvallis needs to come home to really start well.  

Here is the Friday Night update.  Hopefully will be able top update before noon but cannot promise.

@HooAlum

 Minimal changes over night.  Another unit added to Clemson and Colorado in the early games

@HooAlum

Here are the noon games

Clemson (3 units) - low ticket & handle favorite

Kentucky (1 unit) sharp action & SKS outweighs reverse movement 

Colorado (4 units) - west coast road team early start and sharp action outweighs low ticket handle on favorite

Texas A&M (2 units) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp action

@HooAlum

 Midafternoon update and there were some changes and a new game

Nebraska (3 units) - over/under squeeze and sharp action

NEW GAME: Texas Tech (3 units) - low ticket and handle favorite

Auburn (5 units) - sharp action and over/under squeeze

Kansas (1 unit) - it flipped to the Jayhawks as some late sharp action came in to outweigh low handle favorite.  I will say it is VERY close to no bet so you may simply want to stay away.

Nice win on the Beavers :)

@HooAlum

 After a productive 4-0 morning and a decent afternoon of Auburn comes home (it will be meh if they do not as Michigan is cruising and Texas Tech is certainly not going to blow Houston out though could cover) we look to close out strong with a huge valued game coming across the transom late (probably should have been there all along as it involved Bama who bettors always flock to one way or another).

LSU (1 unit) - Low Ticket Favorite

Tennessee (2 units) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp action

Duke-Notre Dame (No Bet) -minor SKS balanced by sharp action

NEW GAME: Mississippi St (7 units) - lopsided wagering, reverse movement, sharp action and over/under squeeze

Arizona (1 unit) - lopsided wagering and sharp action outweighs steam

@HooAlum

I can type this now that Mississippi St is covering, but I was asked if because the line surged from 14.5 to 16.5 if the pick changed on Mississippi St-Bama.  Not on picking the Bulldogs as they are still the call but yes in regards to value.  It is no longer a 7 unit play but a 2 unit play.  The line movement at 7:30ish erased the reverse movement and represented steam for Alabama so the unit value reduced but it is still Mississippi St as the call.  Just at a lower level.  Sorry for the comment after the fact.  Because it is very much in doubt I want to report it now for posterity as it legitimately did reduce (and if you are following the lines you can see why).

You offer good information, appreciate the insights into the line movement. Riding along with Miss State. 

Thank you for the work you put in.

@HooAlum

A extremely productive week.  Maybe one of the best ever.  That followed another productive week in Week 4 so we are definitely on a hot streak.  So you know that that means . . fade these picks for next week :)

LAST WEEK: 10-5 and 64.6 units won on 43 wagered

SEASON:45-33 (57.69%) and 282.4 units won on 229 wagered (23.32% profit margin)

With a lot of teams on buses the number of games is greatly reduced this week.  I fully expect the Friday games to make the cut so am including them prematurely here along with late night Saturday

Oklahoma St (2 units)  - Lopsided wagering

Illinois (1 unit) - low handle favorite

LSU (6 units) - low ticket and handle favorite and strong SKS outweighs sharp action

Oklahoma (1 unit) - lopsided wagering outweighs sharp action

Ohio St (6 units) - low ticket and handle favorite, sharp action and bye week return

UCLA (6 units) - low ticket and handle favorite, sharp action and SKS

Texas A&M-Alabama (no Bet) - No Indicators

Georgia (4 units) - low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering outweighs over/under squeeze

Louisville (2 units) - lopsided wagering

Southern Cal (3 units) - low ticket and handle favorite

***********************

Indicator Performance (some of these have results I am just shocked by but some are underperforming their hostorical averages like lopsided wagering, reverse movement and most noticeably over/under squeeze)

SKS (rankings do not comport with the line): 90.91%!!!!

Both Low Ticket and Handle Favorite Present: 84.62!!!!! (that means Vegas has had a GREAT year so far)

Steam: 71.43%

Low Handle Favorite: 68.18%

West Coast Road team early start: 66.67%

Low Bet Favorite: 65.52%

Sharp Action Analysis: 60.87%

Lopsided Wagering: 52.63%

Bye Week Return: 50%

Line Movement: 48.48%

Reverse Movement: 46.15%

Over/Under Squeeze: 33.33%

Agree fade material after a couple hot weeks but still wish you all the luck.  That's how Vegas set it up. I've been through it.  BTW, I like your view of games you bet

@HooAlum

 well, crap.  Wasn't checking the data and the 2 games last night qualified about an hour and a half out including a good play on New Mexico St (and a neutral play I the second).  Won't count as I cannot do the proper analysis a day later but missed a good opportunity.  Hate that.  Tonight's game is on the list now.

NEW GAME: Western Kentucky (3 units) - low ticket and handle favorite

Oklahoma St (4 units)  - Lopsided wagering & over/under squeeze

Illinois (3 units) - low ticket and handle favorite

LSU (5 units) - low ticket and handle favorite and strong SKS outweighs sharp action and line movement

Texas (1 unit) - sharp action

Ohio St (6 units) - low ticket and handle favorite, sharp action and bye week return

UCLA (5 units) - low ticket and handle favorite and SKS

Texas A&M (2 units) - Line movement and sharp action

NEW GAME: Vanderbilt (1 unit) - over/under squeeze outweighs low handle favorite

Georgia (4 units) - low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering outweighs over/under squeeze

Louisville (2 units) - lopsided wagering

Southern Cal (3 units) - low ticket and handle favorite

Thanks,  I like your picks 

Wow, I hope this isn't alot of work for you bro!! I have got to say, you are greatly appreciated on my end!!

Do you get all these indicators just off of how the money is coming in or how the bets are coming in?

I would love to learn how you come up with these indicators, any advice or info would be greatly appreciated!! I don't mind learning new info so even a point in the right direction to somewhere I can read the stuff you know. 

Thanks bro for all the info you provide!!

have a great day HooAlum!!