Back for another year on my hobby of trying to use public data from betting lines, movement and ticket and handle to give an analysis on picks for a given week. I hope folks enjoy this segment. It has proven pretty successful over the last few years but remember past performance is no guarantee :-). Remember, I do this as a hobby but hopefully it helps. However, I always say be responsible in your wagering. This system has its best year ever last year at a 20.19% return. But do you know what your return would have been had you invested in a basic S&P 500 ETF? 18.83%. Thus this is no get rich scheme ahead of the market.
I will start with a recap on overall performance and specific indicator performance then go into Week 0.
2025 Record
129-88 (59.45%)
2025 Revenue
900.8 units on 749.5 wagered (20.19% profit)
2024 Record
140-97 (59.07%)
2024 Revenue
1038.5 Units on 956 wagered (8.63% profit)
2023 Record
139-106 (56.73%)
2023 Revenue
847.4 on 736 wagered (15.14% profit)
***************
Specific Indicator Performance weighted % accuracy (more weight on recent results)
Early Body Clock Disadvantage: 72.09%
Lower Ranked team favorite (aka the Lee Corso somebody knows something tell): 60.42%
Steam: 59.59%
Sharp Indicators: 58.56%
Reverse Movement: 56.52%
Low Ticket Favorite: 56.51%
Lopsided Ticket Wagering: 54.56%
Low Handle Favorite: 53.82%
Lopsided Handle Wagering: 52.62%
Line movement: 52.34%
Over/Under Squeeze: 51.74%
Bye Week Return: 49.39% (monitored ut not part of calculations)
Style Points: 48.75% (monitored but not part of calculations)
Back for another year on my hobby of trying to use public data from betting lines, movement and ticket and handle to give an analysis on picks for a given week. I hope folks enjoy this segment. It has proven pretty successful over the last few years but remember past performance is no guarantee :-). Remember, I do this as a hobby but hopefully it helps. However, I always say be responsible in your wagering. This system has its best year ever last year at a 20.19% return. But do you know what your return would have been had you invested in a basic S&P 500 ETF? 18.83%. Thus this is no get rich scheme ahead of the market.
I will start with a recap on overall performance and specific indicator performance then go into Week 0.
2025 Record
129-88 (59.45%)
2025 Revenue
900.8 units on 749.5 wagered (20.19% profit)
2024 Record
140-97 (59.07%)
2024 Revenue
1038.5 Units on 956 wagered (8.63% profit)
2023 Record
139-106 (56.73%)
2023 Revenue
847.4 on 736 wagered (15.14% profit)
***************
Specific Indicator Performance weighted % accuracy (more weight on recent results)
Early Body Clock Disadvantage: 72.09%
Lower Ranked team favorite (aka the Lee Corso somebody knows something tell): 60.42%
Steam: 59.59%
Sharp Indicators: 58.56%
Reverse Movement: 56.52%
Low Ticket Favorite: 56.51%
Lopsided Ticket Wagering: 54.56%
Low Handle Favorite: 53.82%
Lopsided Handle Wagering: 52.62%
Line movement: 52.34%
Over/Under Squeeze: 51.74%
Bye Week Return: 49.39% (monitored ut not part of calculations)
Style Points: 48.75% (monitored but not part of calculations)
Great work hooalum , it’s very informative, can U please start A new thread every few weeks so it want get so far back to find the new weeks games if U don’t mind thanks in Advance sir
0
@HooAlum
Great work hooalum , it’s very informative, can U please start A new thread every few weeks so it want get so far back to find the new weeks games if U don’t mind thanks in Advance sir
OK, here is a final call on the first came and probably the second as I likely cannot get to a computer for the afternoon game. Hopeful I can update the evening games.
North Carolina-TCU (No Bet): sorry, indicators went away
Virginia (2 units): low ticket and handle favorite outweighs line movement and sharp action - so here is what has happened. Sahrps came in on NC State, Vegas reacted by reducing the line trying to encourage more betting on Virginia. If that betting does not materialize the line will go down further. If it does then the low ticket and handle are dispositive. Formula says Virginia and you get the nice -4 right now. It will only go down so wait and analyze midafternoon. If it does not go down, that is a clear sign for Virginia.
NEW GAME; Stanford (1 unit): Originally subject to sharp action and reverse movement, that has gone away and we are left with a low handle favorite for Stanford.
UNLV (3 units): low ticket and handle favorite - these are BARELY in that category so could float away. Pay attention to betting splits here. If the public comes back in on the favorite then nothing to see here.
5
@HooAlum
OK, here is a final call on the first came and probably the second as I likely cannot get to a computer for the afternoon game. Hopeful I can update the evening games.
North Carolina-TCU (No Bet): sorry, indicators went away
Virginia (2 units): low ticket and handle favorite outweighs line movement and sharp action - so here is what has happened. Sahrps came in on NC State, Vegas reacted by reducing the line trying to encourage more betting on Virginia. If that betting does not materialize the line will go down further. If it does then the low ticket and handle are dispositive. Formula says Virginia and you get the nice -4 right now. It will only go down so wait and analyze midafternoon. If it does not go down, that is a clear sign for Virginia.
NEW GAME; Stanford (1 unit): Originally subject to sharp action and reverse movement, that has gone away and we are left with a low handle favorite for Stanford.
UNLV (3 units): low ticket and handle favorite - these are BARELY in that category so could float away. Pay attention to betting splits here. If the public comes back in on the favorite then nothing to see here.
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