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    All Forums | College Football

    Public Indicator Calculations 2026

    123 ... 678 Next Last»
    HooAlum
    Boisestateand8
    Sk_Roughie
    Bonekrusher
    HDROADKING1998
    ...
    Participants:
    Search
    Views: 22550
    Posts: 199
    123 ... 678 Next Last»
     
    HooAlum
    HooAlum
    Rookie
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Aug, 2021
    Posts: 950
    Posted: Aug. 26, 2026 - 3:01 PM ET #1

    Back for another year on my hobby of trying to use public data from betting lines, movement and ticket and handle to give an analysis on picks for a given week.  I hope folks enjoy this segment.  It has proven pretty successful over the last few years but remember past performance is no guarantee :-).   Remember, I do this as a hobby but hopefully it helps.  However, I always say be responsible in your wagering.  This system has its best year ever last year at a 20.19% return.  But do you know what your return would have been had you invested in a basic S&P 500 ETF? 18.83%.  Thus this is no get rich scheme ahead of the market. 

    I will start with a recap on overall performance and specific indicator performance then go into Week 0.

    2025 Record

    129-88 (59.45%) 

    2025 Revenue

    900.8 units on 749.5 wagered (20.19% profit)

     

    2024 Record 

    140-97 (59.07%)

    2024 Revenue

    1038.5 Units on 956 wagered (8.63% profit)

     

    2023 Record

    139-106 (56.73%)

    2023 Revenue

    847.4 on 736 wagered (15.14% profit)

    ***************

    Specific Indicator Performance weighted % accuracy (more weight on recent results)

    Early Body Clock Disadvantage: 72.09%

    Lower Ranked team favorite (aka the Lee Corso somebody knows something tell): 60.42%

    Steam: 59.59%

    Sharp Indicators: 58.56%

    Reverse Movement: 56.52%

    Low Ticket Favorite: 56.51%

    Lopsided Ticket Wagering: 54.56%

    Low Handle Favorite: 53.82%

    Lopsided Handle Wagering: 52.62%

    Line movement: 52.34%

    Over/Under Squeeze: 51.74%

    Bye Week Return: 49.39% (monitored ut not part of calculations) 

    Style Points: 48.75% (monitored but not part of calculations)

    **************

    Week 0 Early Projections

    UNC-TCU (0 units): No Indicators

    UVA (2 units): low handle favorite, lopsided handle

    UNLV (3 units): low ticket and handle favorite

     

    Reply
    To remove first post, remove entire topic.

    Back for another year on my hobby of trying to use public data from betting lines, movement and ticket and handle to give an analysis on picks for a given week.  I hope folks enjoy this segment.  It has proven pretty successful over the last few years but remember past performance is no guarantee :-).   Remember, I do this as a hobby but hopefully it helps.  However, I always say be responsible in your wagering.  This system has its best year ever last year at a 20.19% return.  But do you know what your return would have been had you invested in a basic S&P 500 ETF? 18.83%.  Thus this is no get rich scheme ahead of the market. 

    I will start with a recap on overall performance and specific indicator performance then go into Week 0.

    2025 Record

    129-88 (59.45%) 

    2025 Revenue

    900.8 units on 749.5 wagered (20.19% profit)

     

    2024 Record 

    140-97 (59.07%)

    2024 Revenue

    1038.5 Units on 956 wagered (8.63% profit)

     

    2023 Record

    139-106 (56.73%)

    2023 Revenue

    847.4 on 736 wagered (15.14% profit)

    ***************

    Specific Indicator Performance weighted % accuracy (more weight on recent results)

    Early Body Clock Disadvantage: 72.09%

    Lower Ranked team favorite (aka the Lee Corso somebody knows something tell): 60.42%

    Steam: 59.59%

    Sharp Indicators: 58.56%

    Reverse Movement: 56.52%

    Low Ticket Favorite: 56.51%

    Lopsided Ticket Wagering: 54.56%

    Low Handle Favorite: 53.82%

    Lopsided Handle Wagering: 52.62%

    Line movement: 52.34%

    Over/Under Squeeze: 51.74%

    Bye Week Return: 49.39% (monitored ut not part of calculations) 

    Style Points: 48.75% (monitored but not part of calculations)

    **************

    Week 0 Early Projections

    UNC-TCU (0 units): No Indicators

    UVA (2 units): low handle favorite, lopsided handle

    UNLV (3 units): low ticket and handle favorite

     

     
    Boisestateand8
    Boisestateand8
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Jan, 2018
    Posts: 2181
    Posted: Aug. 26, 2026 - 3:13 PM ET #2

    @HooAlum

     Welcome back Hoo! an_cheers

    Reply

    @HooAlum

     Welcome back Hoo! an_cheers

     
    Sk_Roughie
    Sk_Roughie
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Apr, 2013
    Posts: 105
    Posted: Aug. 26, 2026 - 4:08 PM ET #3

    peace_5

    Reply

    peace_5

     
    Bonekrusher
    Bonekrusher
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Nov, 2008
    Posts: 2375
    Posted: Aug. 26, 2026 - 5:46 PM ET #4

    To another good year!

    Reply

    To another good year!

     
    HDROADKING1998
    HDROADKING1998
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Jun, 2025
    Posts: 468
    Posted: Aug. 26, 2026 - 5:50 PM ET #5

    we appreciate all you do sks!!

    Reply

    we appreciate all you do sks!!

     
    ULLafayettekid
    ULLafayettekid
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Sep, 2022
    Posts: 430
    Posted: Aug. 26, 2026 - 11:05 PM ET #6

    @HooAlum

     Great work hooalum , it’s very informative, can U please start A new thread every few weeks so it want get so far back to find the new weeks games if U don’t mind an_clap thanks in Advance sir an_horse

    Reply

    @HooAlum

     Great work hooalum , it’s very informative, can U please start A new thread every few weeks so it want get so far back to find the new weeks games if U don’t mind an_clap thanks in Advance sir an_horse

     
    Brewmeister
    Brewmeister
    Rookie
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    Joined: Oct, 2024
    Posts: 942
    Posted: Aug. 26, 2026 - 11:39 PM ET #7

    @HooAlum

    Here we go again!! Looking forward to a fun season...

    an_cheers  clover  an_horse

    Reply

    @HooAlum

    Here we go again!! Looking forward to a fun season...

    an_cheers  clover  an_horse

     
    Rudeger
    Rudeger
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Oct, 2024
    Posts: 194
    Posted: Aug. 27, 2026 - 5:44 AM ET #8

    @HooAlum

     Thank you for all your efforts in the past. Really appreciated!  peace_5

    Surviving the quiet artillery of time…
    Reply

    @HooAlum

     Thank you for all your efforts in the past. Really appreciated!  peace_5

     
    venezolanisimo
    venezolanisimo
    Captain
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Jun, 2012
    Posts: 9883
    Posted: Aug. 27, 2026 - 8:19 AM ET #9

    @HooAlum

     peace_5

    Reply

    @HooAlum

     peace_5

     
    Biscuiteater1
    Biscuiteater1
    Legend
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Jan, 2011
    Posts: 33167
    Posted: Aug. 27, 2026 - 11:22 AM ET #10

    Appreciate ya buddy  an_cheers

    Reply

    Appreciate ya buddy  an_cheers

     
    HooAlum
    HooAlum
    Rookie
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Aug, 2021
    Posts: 950
    Posted: Aug. 28, 2026 - 3:20 PM ET #11

    Friday Update

    All Favorites 24 hours out

    TCU (3 units): Line movement and sharp indicators

    Virginia (1 unit): low ticket and handle favorite outweighs line movement and sharp indicator

    UNLV (3 units): low ticket and handle favorite

    Reply

    Friday Update

    All Favorites 24 hours out

    TCU (3 units): Line movement and sharp indicators

    Virginia (1 unit): low ticket and handle favorite outweighs line movement and sharp indicator

    UNLV (3 units): low ticket and handle favorite

     
    estes1717
    estes1717
    Hall of Fame
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Mar, 2007
    Posts: 27406
    Posted: Aug. 28, 2026 - 4:57 PM ET #12

    peace_5

    Reply

    peace_5

     
    estes1717
    estes1717
    Hall of Fame
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Mar, 2007
    Posts: 27406
    Posted: Aug. 28, 2026 - 4:57 PM ET #13

    peace_5

    Reply

    peace_5

     
    HooAlum
    HooAlum
    Rookie
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Aug, 2021
    Posts: 950
    Posted: Aug. 29, 2026 - 11:17 AM ET #14

    @HooAlum

     OK, here is a final call on the first came and probably the second as I likely cannot get to a computer for the afternoon game.  Hopeful I can update the evening games.

    North Carolina-TCU (No Bet): sorry, indicators went away

    Virginia (2 units): low ticket and handle favorite outweighs line movement and sharp action - so here is what has happened.  Sahrps came in on NC State, Vegas reacted by reducing the line trying to encourage more betting on Virginia.  If that betting does not materialize the line will go down further. If it does then the low ticket and handle are dispositive.  Formula says Virginia and you get the nice -4 right now.  It will only go down so wait and analyze midafternoon.  If it does not go down, that is a clear sign for Virginia.

    NEW GAME; Stanford (1 unit): Originally subject to sharp action and reverse movement, that has gone away and we are left with a low handle favorite for Stanford.

    UNLV (3 units): low ticket and handle favorite - these are BARELY in that category so could float away. Pay attention to betting splits here.  If the public comes back in on the favorite then nothing to see here.

     

     

     

    Reply

    @HooAlum

     OK, here is a final call on the first came and probably the second as I likely cannot get to a computer for the afternoon game.  Hopeful I can update the evening games.

    North Carolina-TCU (No Bet): sorry, indicators went away

    Virginia (2 units): low ticket and handle favorite outweighs line movement and sharp action - so here is what has happened.  Sahrps came in on NC State, Vegas reacted by reducing the line trying to encourage more betting on Virginia.  If that betting does not materialize the line will go down further. If it does then the low ticket and handle are dispositive.  Formula says Virginia and you get the nice -4 right now.  It will only go down so wait and analyze midafternoon.  If it does not go down, that is a clear sign for Virginia.

    NEW GAME; Stanford (1 unit): Originally subject to sharp action and reverse movement, that has gone away and we are left with a low handle favorite for Stanford.

    UNLV (3 units): low ticket and handle favorite - these are BARELY in that category so could float away. Pay attention to betting splits here.  If the public comes back in on the favorite then nothing to see here.

     

     

     

     
    MR TINGLES
    MR TINGLES
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Jan, 2007
    Posts: 3713
    Posted: Aug. 29, 2026 - 11:20 AM ET #15

    GOOD LUCK this year

    Reply

    GOOD LUCK this year

     
    bwestaustin1
    bwestaustin1
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Oct, 2022
    Posts: 34
    Posted: Aug. 29, 2026 - 11:54 AM ET #16

    @HooAlum

     Ready for another fun year, @HooAlum!

    Reply

    @HooAlum

     Ready for another fun year, @HooAlum!

     
    detroitdavid
    detroitdavid
    Captain
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    Joined: Apr, 2015
    Posts: 5443
    Posted: Aug. 29, 2026 - 2:04 PM ET #17

    an_cheers

    I refuse to belong to any organization that will have me as a member.
    Reply

    an_cheers

     
    Brewmeister
    Brewmeister
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    Posts: 942
    Posted: Aug. 29, 2026 - 2:30 PM ET #18

    I'm showing VA -4.5 now...

    Scratch that. I was on alternates. Not entirely awake yet out here... Sorry.

     

    Reply

    I'm showing VA -4.5 now...

    Scratch that. I was on alternates. Not entirely awake yet out here... Sorry.

     

     
    CaridadDelCobre
    CaridadDelCobre
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    Posts: 599
    Posted: Aug. 29, 2026 - 2:53 PM ET #19

    HooAlum and BoiseStAnd are the two best NCAAF cappers on here

    Reply

    HooAlum and BoiseStAnd are the two best NCAAF cappers on here

     
    HooAlum
    HooAlum
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    Posts: 950
    Posted: Aug. 29, 2026 - 3:32 PM ET #20

    @HooAlum

     No change. Grab Virginia for a modest 2 units and go

    Reply

    @HooAlum

     No change. Grab Virginia for a modest 2 units and go

     
    Budman717
    Budman717
    Prospect
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    Joined: Aug, 2008
    Posts: 108
    Posted: Aug. 29, 2026 - 3:38 PM ET #21

    Thanks, HooAlum.  I appreciate the work and time you've invested.

    Reply

    Thanks, HooAlum.  I appreciate the work and time you've invested.

     
    rufus1966
    rufus1966
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    Joined: Jan, 2003
    Posts: 2014
    Posted: Aug. 29, 2026 - 4:53 PM ET #22

    peace_5

    Reply

    peace_5

     
    DawgHollywood
    DawgHollywood
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    Posts: 1925
    Posted: Aug. 29, 2026 - 9:08 PM ET #23

    peace_5

    Bet with your wallet not your heart
    Reply

    peace_5

     
    Brewmeister
    Brewmeister
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    Posted: Aug. 29, 2026 - 9:46 PM ET #24

    Looks like late line movment to UNLV. I'm getting -5 at the moment. Of course that could indicate the public coming in behind the favorite?

     an_horse 

    Reply

    Looks like late line movment to UNLV. I'm getting -5 at the moment. Of course that could indicate the public coming in behind the favorite?

     an_horse 

     
     
    HooAlum
    HooAlum
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    Posted: Aug. 29, 2026 - 10:00 PM ET #25

    @HooAlum

     no changes UNLV still 3 units (hate that I could go 2-1 and lose this one and be down for the day).  Stanford still 1 unit

    Reply

    @HooAlum

     no changes UNLV still 3 units (hate that I could go 2-1 and lose this one and be down for the day).  Stanford still 1 unit

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