Public Indicator Calculations 2023

@HooAlum

 well, after I jinxed the hell out of Clemson and thought I had it lost that 2 point conversion brings it back to a push (thank you Caesars as DK and others were 3.5 at 10 minutes before game time - shopping paid off on that one). 

Now it is Go Irish!

Thank you for all ya do! This is impressive $$$$

Thank you goat 

@HooAlum

 The sharp action went away for Missouri so all that is left is the low ticket and handle favorite and the steam from jumping the fence outweighing the bowl snub element thus a 5 unit Buckeye play.  With the Marvin Harrison news coming out that he is missing the game, I am expecting the line to get more and more favorable (give me 3 like with Clemson the best right now is -4) as we head to kickoff so I plan to place my bet 5 minutes out.  If sharp action comes back I will reduce to 4 units but I am not confident that it will.

@HooAlum

 BTW, I dislke this pick personally as I think Missouri comes out wanting it while Ohio St could phone it in.  Just going with the numbers.  I felt good about BC, Rutgers and K State.  This does not feel the same as those so buyer beware.  (though I still will be personally following the numbers as I would be kicking myself if tOSU covered and I did not  invest in it)

@HooAlum

 Evening Update.  Ohio St amount actually makes the day a loss based on the vig  so hopefully the big one hits tomorrow - War Eagle!

Penn St (2 units): low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp action

Auburn (8 units) steam, line movement, low ticket and handle favroite

Georgia (5 units): line movement, steam, SKS, and bowl snub outweighs lopsided wagering, over/under squeeze and double digit underdog

Toledo-Wyoming (NO Bet): lopsided wagering balanced by sharp action

Wisconsin-LSU (NO Bet): No indicators

Tennessee (4 units): low ticket and handle favorite and SKS outweighs line movement

Liberty (5 units): reverse movement, non P5 vs P5 and double digit underdog

Michigan (3 units): low ticket and handle favorite

Texas (4 units): SKS, low ticket favorite and sharp action

@HooAlum

 No changes this mooring but "how" we come to Penn St changed which means this game could shift.  The low handle went away but that was due almost directly correlated to sharp action so they balanced each other out with a low ticket favorite and sharp action. 

percentages are moving slightly in favor of penn state and the drop in the Auburn game point spread against maryland obviously has the opposite effect on that game. 

@HooAlum

Do your indicators still like PSU and Auburn? 

@kimoinsd808

 i do as both games are losers and to put it worse penn st gained a unit to 3 so lost 1 there. luckily the surge in matylaa as nd line dramatically dropped Auburn as steam was removed and low ticket favorite went away. however, it is only opportunity cost saved as auburn was still the call but at 2 units, not 8. i tried warning on prior post but in the end it is still an 0-2 day so far

@HooAlum

 georgia with the latest movement has sharp action that moved it so the Dawgs can save the day with a 6 unit play like the buckeyes dampened yesterday. i just with you could still get 3 touchdowns or less. 

@HooAlum

Thanks, appreciate all your work. However, saying that the Auburn play (after they are down 21-0) is now a 2-unit play instead of an 8-unit play doesn't make sense. Your warning was nowhere near the level of drop in units. I understand you can't update all the time but if there was a drastic change from 8 unit to 2 unit, and you played 2 units, it would have been nice to post such a big change. Most peeps prob played the 8 units on Auburn. I played the 8 units since there were no updates to drop the units substantially, and that's on me. I don't blame anyone but to say that the day can be saved by the 6 unit Georgia play in the next post is not true for most of us.

@kdeal213

agreed Kdeal wish it was more clear and the units fully reported before gametime.  I apologize for the poor communication.  My bad 100%.  That is why I tried to lay out the "why" for transparency.  However, it does not make it any better and wish I could have given more of a warning.  Steam, line movement and low ticket all combine to supercharge and since they all went away is why we saw a big drop.  The (-6.5) to (-4.5) move could be seen by the bettors as a warning sign but because I live in these numbers I knew its impact more instinctually than someone who does not so I have to communicate it more clearly (plus you do not have the weighted average on ticket count as accessible that also played into it of at least 2 of the 6 unit drop).   I should have been much more clear and apologize.  Hopefully you took advantage of the Georgia increase to make up for it somewhat.

Here are tomorrow's early look

I appreciate that you owned up to what transpired....that is very rare on this site, and in society in general.....continued success to you...

@HooAlum

Thank you for the reply and all your hard work! I definitely followed your Georgia play! Appreciate your hard work! Thank you again for sharing your info and  and being such a stand up guy! I follow your thread religiously and wish you the best! Thanks again!

@HooAlum

New Year's Morning Update

@HooAlum

 people have probably seen the line move this morning on the two playoff games and that does indeed have an effect.. Michigan is now a 6 unit play and the movement to Washington lowers Texas to 4 units.  All 3 early games remain where they are even as the LSU-Wisconsin line is toggling.  No need to pay attention as there are no indicators to juice it so I still have as no bet.  The other 2 remain at 4 units on Tennessee and Liberty.  Tennessee line is toggling a bit try to shop on that one.  As SVP put it: give me liberty or give me debt.  However try to find those places like Caesars that maximize your advantage at +18.5.  

In the opposite side of the rescue dog mantra when it comes to getting spreads: "Shop don't adopt."  Today all 5 games have varying lines at different places so take advantage.  Every point may matter.

@HooAlum

 I have been watching the Alabama-Michigan game very closely as the indicators are really strong on Michigan.  We have only our second appearance fo reverse movement with the move from 1.5 to 2.5 but the public on Bama.  It is still 6 units on the Wolverines and if anything it could grow but just wanted to report 45 minutes before kick.  In the second game Texas is down to 3 units as sharp action is coming on the Huskies.

@HooAlum

 Got fortunate in that one.  Texas is still the call against Washington for 3 units.  PointsBet is down to -3 which is a great get as 3 versus 3.5 is huge so grab it if you can.

Latest Update

BOWL RECORD: 22-13

SEASON RECORD: 138-106 (56.56%)

BOWL REVENUE: 137.8 units on 114 wagered 

SEASON REVEUE: 834.1 units on 728 wagered (14.57% profit)

Here is the first update on the championship game:

Michigan (3 units) - low ticket and handle favroite

@HooAlum

24 hours out and no change on championship game.  Betting is very stable.  The percentages have edged up and could possibly remove the low ticket and handle on the Wolverines which leads to the 3 units but still has a ways to go right now.

Congrats on the great year. 

The betting reminds me of TCU last year. 

I too am on Michigan. I do not think a National Champion can win three straight games as an underdog. 

Michigan -180 and Dallas Cowboys -325  parlay +103

@HooAlum

 Well, we do have movement in the championship game tonight.  The consensus has moved to 5.5 but part of that was that sharps have come in hard on Michigan pushing the handle to over 50%.  Ticket count is still in Washington's favor.  Adding it all up means a 5 unit play now on the Wolverines.  While the consensus is at 5.5 you can still get it at 5 in some places, notably Caesars, DraftKings and PointsBet

Michigan (5 units) - line movement, low ticket favorite, sharp action

I will monitor over the next hour but wanted to check in with this update.

@HooAlum

Unbelievably, the terrible DC betting app, Gambet, has Michigan -4.5 (-106).  I just checked.

so Michigan @ +5.5 is the play?