Public Indicator Calculations 2023

@HooAlum

 Quick rundown of afternoon.  Soth Florida, Georgia and Washington all light.  Northwestern heavy and no bet anymore in Minnesota-=Nortyh Carolina

@HooAlum

 Decent day so far but Northwestern just is frittering away 6 units as I type.  Here is the evening.  No huge plays

Florida (2 units): very strong sharp action nd line movement outweighs low ticket and handle favorite

James Madison (2 units): reverse movement (tenuous)

West Virginia (5 units): line movement with steam, jumping the fence and strong sharp action

Purdue (1 unit): small sharp action

BYU-Arkansas (No Bet): line movement

TCU (3 units) line movement low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp action

Colorado St (3 units) - lopsided wagering and sharp action outweighs line movement (the lopsided wagering is actually just popped up BARELY so could go back away)

@HooAlum

Two unreported games where there potentially is a split.   Ole Miss-Georgia Tech (unfortunately) made the threshold and was a loss as the Yellow Jackets at 2 units had line movement and sharp action.  But so far so good on Fresno at 2 units also with line movement and small SKS.  Thus, a net loss of .2 units from the vig (assuming Fresno holds on at -3 on FanDuel).  When combined with the late addition of the 6 unit loss of Northwestern, perhaps I should just keep late additions to my self but I'd rather be transparent today on adding losses so that when there is a legitimate net "good" addition there is some street cred built up.

@HooAlum

Another solid weekend @HooAlum!  I’d never seen a 12-unit play until your Boston College pick.  Not only did they cover, they damned near beat Florida State outright.

@HooAlum

 Here is a summary of the weekend and early look at week 4.  After a poor week 0/1 Week 3 made up for all that (except the Illinois pick - sorry)

OVERALL RECORD: 27-23 (11-5 in week 3)

OVERALL REVENUE: 168.2 won on 150 wagered (12.13%) 77.9 won on 61 wagered

Indicator Breakdown

SKS 100% (only 2 games)

Bye Week Return 100% (1-0 Colorado St against Colorado)

Steam 75%

Low Bet Favorite 60% (Low Bet and Low Handle 66.67%)

Sharp Action 56.76%

Lopsided Wagering 53.33%

Reverse Movement 50%

Early Start for western road team 50%

Over/under squeeze 47.06%

Line Movement 43.48%

Week 4

Wisconsin (6 units) - low ticket, low handle, lopsided wagering

Clemson (2 units) - lopsided wagering

Cincinnati-Oklahoma (No Bet) - low ticket wager balanced by sharp action

Texas A&M (1 unit) - low ticket favorite

UCLA (1 unit) - sharp action

Oregon (4 units) - sharp action and SKS

Alabama (3 units) - low ticket and low handle favorite

Washington St (1 unit) - sharp action

LSU (1 unit) - low ticket favorite

Baylor (4 units) - sharp action and over/under squeeze

Penn St (1 unit) - low ticket low handle favorite and sharp action outweighs strong over/under squeeze

Arizona St (2 units) - sharp action and lopsided wagering outweighs line movement and bye week return

@HooAlum

 Hi HooAlum - been following you and just joined the forum. Hope you don't mind if I pick your brain here regarding your most recent posts :

SKS - what does that stand for?

Ticket handle? What are you referring to there? Which site do you find most accurate for % of splits?

@HooAlum

 Here I some small action on the game tonight.

Georgia St (1 unit)- line movement

@HooAlum

 Great stuff and appreciate your efforts.   My numbers tell me Purdue should cover and most likely win it straight up .     Should be fun - either way .   Bol to ya . 

@btuohy609

 There are a lot of those out there that reveal ticket # and handle.  VI is my favorite.  I have used it for years and it results have borne fruit, but I also look at ones from DraftKings splits to Pregame and I am for the first time looking at WagerTalk.  I honestly do not know much about WagerTalk (if people do please tell me, I'd love to know) so I do not put a lot of weight on them.  I am not a fan of the action network.  It just seems to be internal betting.  Pregame might as well so do not solely rely on that.

SKS is when the raonkings in question do not mathematically line up with the actual line.  I'll use this week.  Oregon is only a few spots higher than Colorado in the rankings but is a 3 touchdown favorite.  While one would expect Oregon to be favored by the ranking difference (3-4 points) and get an advantage of home (3-4 points), 21 is out of whack with that calculus, thus an indicator that Oregon really is viewed that much better than Colorado by either the books, the sharps or both.  Sure the Travis Hunter injury plays a factor but c'mon two touchdowns? 

@HooAlum

Always nice to start a weekend 1-0 even if it was a minor play.  Here is a Friday update a numbers have moved around.  

TheBuddah, while the numbers have definitely moved closer to Purdue for tonight, I am not quite there yet though you certainly could be proves right as sharps may start tp coalesce around the Boilers.  Also, it will be interesting if the other P5 game tonight (NC St @ UVA) makes it in handle.  It might.

Wisconsin (2 units) - low ticket, low handle outweighs sharp action on Purdue

Clemson (5 units) - lopsided wagering, reverse movement, sharp action

Oklahoma (1 unit) - low ticket and low handle favorite balanced by sharp action

Texas A&M (3 units) - sharp action and line movement

UCLA (1 unit) - sharp action

Oregon (4 units) - sharp action and SKS

Alabama (3 units) - low ticket and low handle favorite

Oregon St (1 unit) - sharp action flipped

Arkansas (1 unit) -sharp action

Baylor (4 units) - sharp action and over/under squeeze

Ohio St (5 units) - low ticket and low handle favorite, sharp action

Iowa (2 units) - strong over/under squeeze outweighs sharp action

Arizona St (2 units) - sharp action and lopsided wagering outweighs line movement and bye week return

@HooAlum

 Little shout for tonight.  Wisconsin is 3 units as sharp action that was favoring Purdue has dissipated leaving only the low ticket and low handle favorite but even that is tenuous.  William Hill/Caesars is still at 5.5 but everyone else is at 6.5. 

@HooAlum

 Just as soon as I type Purdue sharp comes back and lowers the amount of the Wisconsin play down from 3

@HooAlum

Here is the Friday Update.  As usual I will do my best to update tomorrow morning at least the noon games

Clemson (2 units) - reverse movement

NEW GAME - Michigan (1 unit) - low ticket and handle favorite and sharp action outweighs strong over/under squeeze

Oklahoma (2 units) - low ticket and low handle favorite outweighs sharp action

Texas A&M (4 units) - sharp action and line movement

NEW GAME - Kansas (5 units) - low ticket and low handle favorite and sharp action

UCLA (3 units) - line movement and sharp action

Oregon (5 units) - sharp action and SKS

NEW GAME - Michigan St (1 unit) - lopsided wagering outweighs line movement

Alabama (4 units) - low ticket and low handle favorite and sharp action

Oregon St (1 unit) - sharp action

Arkansas (1 unit) -sharp action

Baylor-Texas (No Bet) - line movement, and steam outweighs sharp action and over/under squeeze

Ohio St (3 units) - low ticket and low handle favorite

Iowa (2 units) - strong over/under squeeze outweighs sharp action

Arizona St (1 unit) - sharp action and lopsided wagering outweighs line movement and bye week return

Would Oklahoma moving to 13.5 change anything in your opinion? Since it never really got to 14.5, I am expecting 13.5 to pop up in the morning

@HooAlum

 Early Morning update (not a lot of overnight change).  Hopefully will update noon games before they start but no guarantee.

Clemson (2 units) - reverse movement

]Michigan (1 unit) - low ticket and handle favorite and sharp action outweighs strong over/under squeeze

Oklahoma (2 units) - low ticket and low handle favorite outweighs sharp action

Texas A&M (4 units) - sharp action and line movement

Kansas (3 units) - low ticket favorite and sharp action

UCLA (2 units) - line movement and sharp action

Oregon (4 units) - sharp action and SKS

Michigan St (1 unit) - lopsided wagering outweighs line movement

Alabama (4 units) - low ticket and low handle favorite and sharp action

Oregon St (1 unit) - sharp action

Arkansas (1 unit) -sharp action

Baylor-Texas (No Bet) - line movement, and steam outweighs sharp action and over/under squeeze

Ohio St (3 units) - low ticket and low handle favorite

Iowa (2 units) - strong over/under squeeze outweighs sharp action

Arizona St (1 unit) - sharp action and lopsided wagering outweighs line movement and bye week return

Excuse my ignorance But what is SKS?

@AuFanatic22

 Read page one

@HooAlum

 Noon Update.  Just under the wire.  Not a lot of change from this morning

Clemson (1 unit) - sharp action as reverse movement went away

Michigan (1 unit) - low ticket and handle favorite and sharp action outweighs strong over/under squeeze

Oklahoma (1 units) - low ticket and low handle favorite outweighs sharp action and negative line movement

Texas A&M (5 units) - HEAVY sharp action and line movement

@AuFanatic22

 cut and paste on SKS 

@4headies

 yes, it reduced the Oklahoma play (1 unit) but the Sooners are still a minor play if you want to get involved in that game

@HooAlum

Midafternoon Update

Kansas (3 units) - low ticket favorite and sharp action

UCLA (4 units) - line movement and sharp action

Oregon (6 units) - sharp action and SKS

Michigan St (1 unit) - lopsided wagering outweighs line movement

Alabama (2 units) - low ticket and sharp action

@HooAlum

Afternoon is so far so good and the biggest plays of the week are looking solid (though iuCLA could make it a REALLY nice weekend if they found an offense)

Here is the evening update. Not a lot of play.

Another solid week, HooAlum!  I took your picks of Texas A&M and Oregon to the bank!  Thank you, and keep up the great work!

@HooAlum

 ASU still the call but only a mere 1 unit so no big late night fun 

Thanks for the work you put in here.

It helped this week on a few I rode and some I passed.