Midday Games - a little higher action so hopefully a little better results
Ohio State (7 units): lopsided wagering, low ticket favorite, low ticket favorite outweighs modest sharp action. Get it at 29.5 on FanDuel
Boise State (5 units): line movement, lopsided wagering, reverse movement outweighs new sharp action - very important to get at 14.5 not 14 (FD, DK and MGM)
Buffalo (2 units): lopsided wagering. Get above the 28 at Caesars as it is 28.5 most places and if you are lucky enough to have UniBet 29.
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@HooAlum
Midday Games - a little higher action so hopefully a little better results
Ohio State (7 units): lopsided wagering, low ticket favorite, low ticket favorite outweighs modest sharp action. Get it at 29.5 on FanDuel
Boise State (5 units): line movement, lopsided wagering, reverse movement outweighs new sharp action - very important to get at 14.5 not 14 (FD, DK and MGM)
Buffalo (2 units): lopsided wagering. Get above the 28 at Caesars as it is 28.5 most places and if you are lucky enough to have UniBet 29.
Ohio State needs to get it together at half! The other 2 are looking good but that is just a push in units.
The only change for early evening at this time is that UNC-South Carolina has moved to no bet due to sharp action evening out. Wyoming is still the big play at 9 units and the week likely will rise and fall with them unless the Buckeyes start turning it up. 29.5 is a LONG way away.
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@HooAlum
Ohio State needs to get it together at half! The other 2 are looking good but that is just a push in units.
The only change for early evening at this time is that UNC-South Carolina has moved to no bet due to sharp action evening out. Wyoming is still the big play at 9 units and the week likely will rise and fall with them unless the Buckeyes start turning it up. 29.5 is a LONG way away.
NO late night heroics after one of the poorer days ever. Feel free to fade going forward until later numbers get right. The good news is that the sharp indicator analysis is 7-1 today. Too bad the betting pattern tells have been nothing short of a disaster.
UCLA (1 unit): Steam
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@HooAlum
NO late night heroics after one of the poorer days ever. Feel free to fade going forward until later numbers get right. The good news is that the sharp indicator analysis is 7-1 today. Too bad the betting pattern tells have been nothing short of a disaster.
anyone want a good fade? Got one. The numbers still say 1 unit on Florida St. They have been awful this weekend.
On sources for ticket count VI has been my consistent standard for years (as I trust the the books from who they pull - tall the majors) but they failed this weekend. I worry they are not pulling from the same sources.
Do not use sports insights. Their numbers are form their own site. Pregame is also its own site but I like the transparency on handle from that site.
I do like VSIN but uses SouthPoint, not an average so one book could have too much impact.
I do not know wager talk. Could be worth checking out . I pulled it up and it is definitely interesting. Something to look at over the next week for me. If folks know I would love to hear. There one issue I see is that it only tells today;'s action, not days in advance. I like to adjust over time (e.g. give me Duke-Clemson now not tomorrow morning)
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@4headies
anyone want a good fade? Got one. The numbers still say 1 unit on Florida St. They have been awful this weekend.
On sources for ticket count VI has been my consistent standard for years (as I trust the the books from who they pull - tall the majors) but they failed this weekend. I worry they are not pulling from the same sources.
Do not use sports insights. Their numbers are form their own site. Pregame is also its own site but I like the transparency on handle from that site.
I do like VSIN but uses SouthPoint, not an average so one book could have too much impact.
I do not know wager talk. Could be worth checking out . I pulled it up and it is definitely interesting. Something to look at over the next week for me. If folks know I would love to hear. There one issue I see is that it only tells today;'s action, not days in advance. I like to adjust over time (e.g. give me Duke-Clemson now not tomorrow morning)
For what its worth, Pre Game is always identical to Bet Online. Bet Online is a major book and I suspect is fairly representative of the market at large which is what you want.
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For what its worth, Pre Game is always identical to Bet Online. Bet Online is a major book and I suspect is fairly representative of the market at large which is what you want.
Its been my experience over the last couple of years that the public tends to do well on opening weeks. As the season matures, the 'indicators' will start hitting harder and even things out.
I too had a disastrous start but much of it was poor discipline from waiting months for the season to start and being unable to refrain from doubling down on bad bets.
Also, I really like Everson's 'skittles charts' and he had Coach Prime's appendage so far down his throat on Saturday that you couldnt tell Dion's pube's from Pat's whiskers and he didnt put anything up. I really depend on the 'skittle charts' to give me a late compass on how things are heading.
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Dont get down Hoo,
Its been my experience over the last couple of years that the public tends to do well on opening weeks. As the season matures, the 'indicators' will start hitting harder and even things out.
I too had a disastrous start but much of it was poor discipline from waiting months for the season to start and being unable to refrain from doubling down on bad bets.
Also, I really like Everson's 'skittles charts' and he had Coach Prime's appendage so far down his throat on Saturday that you couldnt tell Dion's pube's from Pat's whiskers and he didnt put anything up. I really depend on the 'skittle charts' to give me a late compass on how things are heading.
The worst opening weekend has one last gasp to make up some (or lose even more given how things have gone). At least I have solace that the Vegas books evidently also took a bath - though the Florida St outright win last night helped - so it seems that misery loves company.
This afternoon, we have seen a number of tells go to Duke. It is now a 4 unit play with reverse movement and solid shape action on the Devils. The line as mentioned by the reverse movement is going back down to 12.5. Right now it is 13 at every major outlet, but I bet it goes down so if you like Duke now might as well go or at least monitor to see if a few more books follow suit and jump on one of the slower movers (Fan Duel often is that slower mover)
The record this week has been 6-10. The bigger item is the loss of units 333 won on 430 wagered. (29% loss). The interesting thing is the sharp analysis was really good at the end of the day (10-6) too bad line movement and the west coast component in Purdue-Fresno field and lopsided wagering only hit as .500 and reverse movement was 1-2. Those are 3 big weighted tells that fell short. Steam was 0-3 but I have greatly reduced the weights on that.
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@powchappy4080
The worst opening weekend has one last gasp to make up some (or lose even more given how things have gone). At least I have solace that the Vegas books evidently also took a bath - though the Florida St outright win last night helped - so it seems that misery loves company.
This afternoon, we have seen a number of tells go to Duke. It is now a 4 unit play with reverse movement and solid shape action on the Devils. The line as mentioned by the reverse movement is going back down to 12.5. Right now it is 13 at every major outlet, but I bet it goes down so if you like Duke now might as well go or at least monitor to see if a few more books follow suit and jump on one of the slower movers (Fan Duel often is that slower mover)
The record this week has been 6-10. The bigger item is the loss of units 333 won on 430 wagered. (29% loss). The interesting thing is the sharp analysis was really good at the end of the day (10-6) too bad line movement and the west coast component in Purdue-Fresno field and lopsided wagering only hit as .500 and reverse movement was 1-2. Those are 3 big weighted tells that fell short. Steam was 0-3 but I have greatly reduced the weights on that.
VI Vegas Insider? I always thought they posted from SportsBook.com???
VSIN says they partnered with DraftKings. Worth the 20 buck a month if true. DraftKings does top 3 handle in football.
When SportsInsights first started they would publish the first half and second half percentages. I was paying $250 a month for it but it paid for itself. Stopped using it when they discontinued the service.
Scores and Odds is another good free site. They are affiliated with Sports Data.
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VI Vegas Insider? I always thought they posted from SportsBook.com???
VSIN says they partnered with DraftKings. Worth the 20 buck a month if true. DraftKings does top 3 handle in football.
When SportsInsights first started they would publish the first half and second half percentages. I was paying $250 a month for it but it paid for itself. Stopped using it when they discontinued the service.
Scores and Odds is another good free site. They are affiliated with Sports Data.
correct on VSIN for splits. They openly take DK's. And I like DK splits as a general rule. Their "analysis" of movement when clicking into game by game is from SouthPoint. I do look at Scores and Odds. Right now they seem like the best aggregator across books but the jury is still out generally.
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@4headies
correct on VSIN for splits. They openly take DK's. And I like DK splits as a general rule. Their "analysis" of movement when clicking into game by game is from SouthPoint. I do look at Scores and Odds. Right now they seem like the best aggregator across books but the jury is still out generally.
Your metrics are solid, HooAlum. I remember when your picks heated up last season and you were practically walking on water. I know you’ll get there again.
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@HooAlum
Your metrics are solid, HooAlum. I remember when your picks heated up last season and you were practically walking on water. I know you’ll get there again.
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