Public Indicator Calculations 2023

It is time to renew what for the last two years has been a successful exercise on Covers.com.  

These calculations utilize 5 years worth of data to find small edges.  Big games (high handle & major televised) are used.  I encourage one to draw your own conclusion game by game.  Last year the overall numbers were: 158-129 with units won 1333 on 8650 wagered.

Here is the thread from last season. 

https://www.covers.com/forum/college-football/public-indicators-calculations-103659089

Indicator Glossary

Line Movement - consensus Vegas line movement betting into movement has a weighted average of 53.13%

Steam - Consensus line jumps >1.5.  Following steam has a weighted average of 57.88%

Low Bet Ticket favorite - Favorite is not getting love from the public and sits at a low percentage.  Betting on the low ticket favorite has weighted average of 53.08% (movement toward the favorite is 55.7%)

Low Handle Favorite - The favorite does not have as much money on it as the underdog.  Betting on the low handle favorite has a weighted average of 53.55%

Low Ticket & Handle Favorite - When the two combine there is a weighted average of 57.26%.

Lopsided Wagering - When the public ticket count is wildly in one direction.  Betting against the public has a 55.31% weighted average.  Betting on a low ticket lopsided favorite has a 61.06% success rate.  Line movement = to lopsided wagering has an outstanding 67.77% weighted average (it only happens between 4 and 6 times a season).  Lopsided wagering in favor of a large underdog = 63.22% weighted average (it happened a grand total of two times last season.)

Reverse Movement - When the line moves opposite the number of bets placed.  The weighted average is 56.55%. Reverse movement toward the favorite is 59.63% (underdog is still a respectable 54.92%)

Sharp Plays - Composed of Evaluating ticket and handle numbers combined with information gathered from key respected individuals.  My favorite is Patrick Everson formerly of Covers.com and now with VegasInsider.  It is the most subjective item listed here.  The weighted average for this analysis is 54.48%

SKS - The original tell that I used when I first started this.  Basically if a line looks too good to be true, it probably is.  Mathematically you take into account AP and CFP rankings (along with home field) to show disparities.It has a weighed average of 55.04%

Early start for west coast team - This is the best indicator out there.  The theory is that body clocks are not ready for early east coast starts.  It really is remarkable and works.  Too bad it only happens a couple of times a year. It has a weighted average of 65.8%.  As a note it was 4-0 last year.

Over/Under Squeeze - When the total is low but the spread is large.  Mathematically something has to give.  Either the total goes over or the favorite fails to cover.  The weighted average is 55.51% (and an impressive 61% last year but I worry that means last year was a unicorn)

Style Points - Teams highly favored looking for a CFP bid now have incentive to run up the score so a backdoor cover becomes less likely.  The weighted average is 53.03%

Bye Week  - Teams coming off a bye week perform above expectations as they use the 2 weeks to better prepare for the opponent.  Weighted average is 53.76%

Blowout response - A lot of research shows that teams coming off  blowouts are undervalued.  The weighted average is 47.56% making this almost a "fade." 

@HooAlum

Here are the initial public indicators for Week 0.  They will be updated over the next two days

Notre Dame (2 units): line movement, low ticket count & low handle favorite outweighs small sharp play & over/under squeeze

OhioU (4 units): sharp play & over/under squeeze

Hawaii (1 unit): small sharp play

@HooAlum

 Welcome back boss! Excited for this year’

Best thread on here and honestly one of the only reasons I still check Covers 

@HooAlum

 Happy to you sand this thread! Always look forward to delving into your insights every week! Thanks for all the info you provide!

Solid work Thank you for the intel much appreciated! 

I usually update on Friday night not mid afternoon but wanted to at least give a mid afternoon update, primarily due to Ohio-San Diego St.  Vegas books have moved the line to 2/2.5 but online books (Fan Duel, Draft Kings, etc . . .) have kept it at 3.  Sharp play is pretty much the sole reason for the Vegas books drop and I wanted to alert people that if you like Ohio, you should grab it now as the online guys will likely be 2.5 in a few hours.

In addition, the other games have flipped since yesterday (though are more modest plays)

Navy (1 unit) - sharp action and over/under squeeze outweighs low ticket and handle favorite (line movement to Notre Dame went away and the sharp action increased for Navy)

Ohio (3 units) - reasonably strong sharp action (over/under squeeze went away due to shrinking line differential)

Vanderbilt (2 units) low ticket and handle on the favorite exists now outweighs minor sharp action

San Jose St (2 units) - welcome to the party.  Lopsided wagering and the slimmest of sharp action (that I predict will be countered by game time) outweighs line movement - which is a good thing if you like the Spartans as you get to ride a bigger spread that I bet will only grow).  Just as there may be a sense of urgency on the Ohio game if you like the Bobcats, I think one can wait on making a decision on this one close to gametime until all data is in.

Great work and thank you for the efforts.

@HooAlum

 Good morning from the east coast.  We did see some interesting sharp action overnight come in over the last 18 hours.  Nothing earth shattering but it affected the numbers nonetheless.  I will try to update the games before each goes live

Navy (2 units) - increasing sharp action and over/under squeeze outweighs low ticket and handle favorite 

Ohio (2 units) - sharp action still favors Ohio but pulled back a little = probably based on the line moving from 3 to 2.5 in Vegas.  You can still catch 3 in a few places  - specifically PointsBet and DraftKings - but it is now 2.5 or 2 everywhere else).  I personally like Ohio as my biggest play but this is not about me, but the numbers which are reduced slightly from yesterday and they say it is around the same as the other 3 games.

Vanderbilt (3 units) low ticket and handle on the favorite exists (no sharp action)

San Jose St (2 units) - Lopsided wagering and small sharp action outweigh line movement

Interesting 

@HooAlum

Navy (1 unit)  - reduced sharp action and over/under squeeze outweighs low ticket and low handle favorite.  It is now 21 at some books so that is a nice number to hook Navy on for a small play.

Other change is that the sharp action is back up slightly in Ohio-SDSU (now 3 units) as the spread is bouncing,  Catch it at 3 as I have said over the last 24 hours.  Reduce your wager if all you have is 2.5 in your area.  

Love your insights

@HooAlum

Well, a wasted first week.  I could bitch about Ohio losing their QB in the first quarter, I could complain that Vandy left the backdoor not only open but with an engraved invitation to Hawaii that turned the week from a winner to a loser but the bottom line is that the numbers were 1-3 with a 5.2 unit loss on 9 wagered.  Not good.  Period.  let's see if we can do a little better this week.

Nebraska (3 units): lopsided wagering and early sharp play

Utah (4 units): low ticket & handle favorite and early sharp play

Georgia Tech (1 unit): negative line movement

Virginia-Tennessee (no bet): lopsided wagering and sharp lay balance each other out

Colorado (1 unit): early sharp play

Purdue (4 units): One of my favorites, early start for west coast traveling team BUT a lot of the betting elements are giving a mixed message in that the public is betting on the Boilers but yet the spread is going down.  Not quite reverse movement yet but could this be setting up trap or am I just paranoid after a poor week 0?

Ohio St (2 units): low ticket favorite and early sharp action

Boise St (3 units): negative line movement and sharp action

North Carolina-South Carolina (no bet): no indicators yet

Wyoming (1 unit): Over/Under squeeze outweighs low ticket favorite

West Virginia (1 unit): Over/Under squeeze outweighs low ticket favorite

UCLA (3 units): low ticket & handle favorite (and by low handle I am talking REAL low)

LSU (5 units): low ticket favorite with lopsided wagering and sharp action

Duke-Clemson (No Bet): No indicators yet

@HooAlum

 I'll be looking out for your posts.

@HooAlum

Here is an update for today.  I might update the Thursday games as they get closer to kickoff.  Both are very fluid given betting pattern in the Minnesota game and the injury situation in Utah.

Minnesota (3 units): lopsided wagering and low ticket favorite outweighs and small sharp play.  Lopsided wager is close to going away which would drop this to 1 unit.  Monitor over the next few hours.

Florida-Utah (No Bet): Florida steam (after Utah's QB Cameron Rising was about to be declared out - thus would have been good to grab at 6.5/7) matched by Utah sharp play (low ticket count went away)

Miami-Ohio (1 unit): NEW GAME - small sharp play

Georgia Tech (2 unit): negative line movement and small sharp play

Virginia-Tennessee (no bet): lopsided wagering outweighs small sharp play

Colorado (1 unit): early sharp play

Purdue (2 units): Early start for west coast traveling team outweighs negative line movement and sharp play 

Ohio St (3 units): line movement and low ticket favorite 

Boise St (3 units): negative line movement and sharp action

North Carolina (1 unit): small sharp play

Wyoming (4 units): Over/Under squeeze outweighs low ticket favorite

West Virginia (1 unit): Over/Under squeeze outweighs low ticket favorite outweighs low ticket favorite

Coastal Carolina-UCLA (No Bet): No indicators

LSU (2 units): low ticket favorite and sharp action

Duke-Clemson (No Bet): No indicators yet

@HooAlum

 lopsided wagering went away and so did the bet.  No bet on either game. :-(

@HooAlum

 Do you think this approach has validity in college hoops?

@HooAlum

 Reviewing your info for a few games

Purdue - this definitely looks like RLM to me. Purdue clearly has 54 to 58% edge in tickets and cash.  But the line movement from open to present has moved from -6.5 to -4 which would indicate RLM money on Fresno (Dog).  We would seem to be in agreement here except I am leaning strongly to Fresno.  Rare to see a road dog get this much action early.

LSU - Using Sports Action Network as a source, it shows LSU leading in both tickets and cash (66% and 57%).  But line movement from open to current has gone from LSU +1 to LSU -2.5 or -2.   To me, this looks like a pure public play on FSU.  Whenever I see tickets and cash >50% and line is moving with the ticket/cash on a high profile game like this one, then that points to the dog in my approach.   Curious what you think about this.

@HooAlum

 Midday Friday update.  I may update the two Friday games tonight

Miami-Ohio (2 units): sharp play

Georgia Tech (2 unit): negative line movement and small sharp play

Virginia (1 unit): lopsided wagering outweighs small sharp play

Colorado-TCU (No Bet): no indiactors

Purdue (2 units): Early start for west coast traveling team outweighs negative line movement and sharp play 

Ohio St (7 units): lopsided wagering combined with line movement and low ticket favorite  - as always lopsided wagering can disappear closer to kickoff.  If it does it is still Ohio state but only 3 units

Boise St (4 units): negative line movement and lopsided wagering

UTSA (4 units): NEW GAME line movement, low ticket favorite and sharp play

South Carolina (1 unit): small sharp play

Wyoming (4 units): Lopsided wagering and Over/Under squeeze outweighs low ticket favorite

Penn State (2 unit): Lopsided wagering and low ticket favorite outweighs Over/Under squeeze

Coastal Carolina-UCLA (No Bet): No indicators

LSU (2 units): low ticket favorite and sharp action

Duke (2 units): sharp action

@HooAlum

 The values did not change so that is why I did not update (reasoning did in Miami-Miami game as movement went to the Redhawks but some of their sharp action dissipated)

@HooAlum

 Justice served as Georgia tech deserved to cover (I had them at 8.5 via PointsBet but in the end that number versus 7.5 which was ay most places did not matter).  They blew the FG via the QB sack and not only gave up a score but a quick one allowing Louisville time top kick a FG after failing on 4th down.  Tehn, GT pulls the cover out of their rear end with a TD with a minute to go.  Crazy game from the points spread POV.  All that means a split for the night which means a modest loss but it seemed to steady the ship for tomorrow and the late night update.

Virginia (1 unit): lopsided wagering outweighs small sharp play

Colorado-TCU (No Bet): no indiactors

Purdue (1 unit): Early start for west coast traveling team outweighs negative line movement and sharp play 

Ohio St (7 units): lopsided wagering combined with line movement and low ticket favorite outweighs small sharp action

Boise St (3 units): negative line movement and lopsided wagering outweighs small sharp action

UTSA (5 units): line movement, low ticket favorite and sharp play

South Carolina (1 unit): sharp play outweighs low ticket favorite

Wyoming (4 units): Lopsided wagering and Over/Under squeeze outweighs low ticket favorite

Penn State (1 unit): Lopsided wagering and low ticket favorite outweighs Over/Under squeeze and sharp play

UCLA (1 unit): Steam

FSU-LSU (No Bet): low ticket favorite even with sharp action

Duke (1 unit): sharp action

I'll try to so and AM update before noon games to catch them

@HooAlum

 Love your stuff -I use it to check my own work.  Right now, the only diff we have is I like Fresno over Purdue and I prefer a small play on Florida St.