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Alabama -9.5

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Posted: #51

Quote Originally Posted by TreyInventor:

Lean Bama here. MSU has been the beneficiary of winning games by inches and miracle plays. Don't see them doing much vs this Bama defense. Bama by 10 sounds about right. They will wear much St down late in the game.

  Bingo!!!

 

 
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Posted: #52
Quote Originally Posted by yomh1964:

cook  is good , but after  burbridge  ?

  rb are  ok 
bama  by  14..................  31-17

Absent some divine intervention, Michigan State has no shot of scoring 17 points in this game.  They couldn't even score 17 on Iowa for goodness sake!!!

 

 
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Posted: #53
Quote Originally Posted by melossinglet:


honestly i 100% hope youre right...cos it gets downright embarassing for you if this happens a third time,shouting from the mountaintops how a team will be lucky to even get on the scoreboard against alabama and how the spread is a "gift"(it NEVER is,books are pretty dumb,right??)...theres never any shame in being wrong about a game obviously...but to not even entertain the idea that theres a possibility they cud not cover in a do-or-die game is foolish in the xtreme....wat on earth will you say in your own defense if they lose outright??......oh thats right,theres no way in a million years that will ever happen,huh??


no-one can ever question your vast knowledge of the game and track record,you are one of the top few guys that post here without doubt...but your views on alabama games are unbalanced in the xtreme and its stung you before so not sure why you wudnt address it in your appraisal of their abilities.

I'm not embarrassed by anything that happens on any message board.  Perhaps your manhood is that fragile, but I can assure you mine is not.

I have no idea what "three" you are talking about.  I've missed a whole lot more than three Alabama bets in my days.

Nope, there's never any shame, just an ugly looking balance in my wagering account.

There is a way for Michigan State to cover, but it will probably take at least two non-offensive touchdowns for that to happen.  If you want to wager on two non-offensive touchdowns, I would like to hold you wager.  I'll even give you -13.5.

Several people have questioned me in this very thread including you, so that argument doesn't seem to hold much water.

My views are unbalanced in the extreme like when I recommended to everyone on Covers just last week NOT to bet Alabama at -17 or more, and went on recommend a bet on Florida +10 (1st half)?  Is that the "unbalanced in the extreme" you are talking about?

Please consider a more thoughtful post the next time you feel the urge to click the "Submit" button.

 

 
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Posted: #54
Quote Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:

I'm not embarrassed by anything that happens on any message board.  Perhaps your manhood is that fragile, but I can assure you mine is not.

I have no idea what "three" you are talking about.  I've missed a whole lot more than three Alabama bets in my days.

Nope, there's never any shame, just an ugly looking balance in my wagering account.

There is a way for Michigan State to cover, but it will probably take at least two non-offensive touchdowns for that to happen.  If you want to wager on two non-offensive touchdowns, I would like to hold you wager.  I'll even give you -13.5.

Several people have questioned me in this very thread including you, so that argument doesn't seem to hold much water.

My views are unbalanced in the extreme like when I recommended to everyone on Covers just last week NOT to bet Alabama at -17 or more, and went on recommend a bet on Florida +10 (1st half)?  Is that the "unbalanced in the extreme" you are talking about?

Please consider a more thoughtful post the next time you feel the urge to click the "Submit" button.

 


fair enough,good response...like i say i am not a follower of the game and definitely have not seen every post you have ever made,so didnt even know of your recommendations in the games you have mentioned...so i am ill-informed in that regard.

the 3 i am talking about is the texas a&m game you said wud be a big,big blowout and had no chance of being close,the game against oklahoma the following year...and this one here....yes of course we all miss bets on teams every single day,whether we have an in-built bias or not...but to be so cock-sure and bloody-minded about an outcome kinda sticks out is all im saying.

you are correct,shame and embarrasment are too strong a words.but surely you get the point in learning from mistakes of the past when your confidence was ridiculous through the roof to the point you were dismissive of other points of view,like alabama had a bunch of supermen on the field and the opposition were 10 year old boys or something...confidence is fine.in fact it is welcomed...but anyone with 2 eyes can see that there is a strong bias in your assessment of this game.if you truly,truly felt this way you wud probably be putting most of your bankroll on it and im certain thats not the case.???

it just baffles me that someone as good at this and as experienced and knowledgable as yourself can feel this way in a game for all the marbles(well,nearly all the marbles)...how many times has strange shiiit happened in these scenarios and far better teams been toppled by a sick combination of inspiration,desire,physicality,luck..watever the case may be??

im sorry,this is as thoughtful as i get but you may feel free to respond or take it into consideration.....or just scroll rite on past.
 
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Posted: #55
Michigan State is the same team as LSU, but with less talent.... Bama is the play here
 
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Posted: #56
This bama/msu game has the makings of the bama/ND championship game of a few years ago...hoping public starts loving some MSU and this goes down to 7 or 8.  Unlikely but I'm hoping.
 
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Posted: #57
Quote Originally Posted by Michfan15:

This bama/msu game has the makings of the bama/ND championship game of a few years ago...hoping public starts loving some MSU and this goes down to 7 or 8.  Unlikely but I'm hoping.

Mich St has done two things no other team has done: they beat the defending champs; they beat Iowa; they also beat a coach that many argue is the best--Harbaugh; they also beat Oregon with a healthy Adams, a team that beat Stanford. If any team can beat Bama it is MIch St. Bama every year tries to ram the ball between the tackles and try to stop your run game. They have the best linemen to achieve it, and in an offensively dull conference they dominate. But I admit they are likely the best at this concept. I think it is likely they win by a narrow score, or they lose handily as their rush game is abandoned. 10 is a touchdown too much. Anyone reasonable can sense this.
 
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Posted: #58
Quote Originally Posted by Boom_Boom:



mehhh... I don't know Jimmy.

Alabama is one dimensional. Coker is the worst QB of the 4 team playoff...and in today's game, you HAVE to have a QB. Alabama has a good team, but im not seeing the greatness at all...and you and I know each other for years on here so you know I gonna give it to you straight.

Now with that being said, is it crazy to think Bama can't cover the 10? Of course not....I could see that. But to think that this is a gift IMO is simply not true. Bama has issues with Coker that only Clemson could exploit IMO. If they meet in the championship game Clemson will stack the box..... and put those corners on a island cause they will NOT respect Bama's passing game and when they do drop back to pass, Lawson and the boys will play meet you at the QB.

Will Bama beat Sparty? I think they will, is it a " gift "..... NO way IMO.

 

Coker had more yards and TD's than Henry in the SECCG, had two huge play of the week plays in the Auburn game, saved our fools when Arkansas stacked the box, saved our fools when we lost Ryan Kelly in the AnM game and lowered his shoulder on several drives to win the team over and keep us in the game, and has a game winning drive in the Tennessee game, and he is the leader of our offense... Florida probably has the best secondary, or one of the best in the nation right now and Coker made them look bad... 

Clemson has the 23rd ranked rushing defense in the nation, Florida the 17th, Wisconsin the 4th... Florida was able to contain Henry for the first half, but he imposed his will in the second half, like he does to all his teams and like he would do to Clemson...
 
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Posted: #59
Quote Originally Posted by incognegro:


Same story we heard when they were 8 point favs last year to Ohio State, and the year before as 17 point favs to Oklahoma.  Bama lost both outright.  

So just because it happened last year it is guaranteed to happen this year right? Bama should just give up now, not even step out on the field, right? Don't be too upset when you discover I am right...
 
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Posted: #60
Quote Originally Posted by mbialowas:

 

Has it been 3 years since Bama won a bowl game?


Two, we won a national championship in 2012, 2011, a bowl game in 2010 and a national championship in 2009... If we are going by trends here...
 
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Posted: #61
Quote Originally Posted by dmt1020:

Honestly, the comments on this thread must be from people who do not watch a lot of SEC ball. You are highly underestimating Alabama and Saban's program. I'm an LSU fan, so trust me I really don't enjoy to say anything positive about the tide, but we are talking spreads here. This is one of Saban's most dedicated teams he's had in his career. That's a bold statement. This is not going to be like Iowa. Alabama will probably embarrass Clemson too. I hate to say it. By the way, they have played really good football after that ole miss loss. (Ole miss is highly underrated)
 
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Posted: #62
Quote Originally Posted by MedicalMaryJay:

 Yes we have, we have seen Fred Ross for Miss st, and Christian Kirk for AnM... They are both on their level.. .And again, your QB is ranked 41st in the nation... We have faced much better.. Our pass rush is going to cause MAJOR issues for that QB, and our secondary will have it easy, and btw they have not seen a safety like Eddie Jackson, and a LB like Reggie Ragland, or had to block anything like A'shawn Robinson or Jarran Reed...  And our DE's are all amazing as well... At least 4 of our lineman are going to the NFL this year. Did you really just say that Ohio States defense is not that far off from Bama's, and you aren't drunk, or on drugs and are actually being serious?

how many points did Alabama score on Ohio st defense less than a year ago??? How many tappy?
Who cares? What is your point? These are different teams a year later... You do realize that collegiate athletes, especially Nick Saban coached 5 stars and NFL draft picks, do this thing called improve don't you? Or is that a little above your head?
 
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Posted: #63
Quote Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:

Football is game about matchups.  That is concept that most gamblers don't seem to grasp.  In this game Michigan State's offense versus Alabama defense is a complete mismatch in favor of Alabama.  The Spartans offense, which struggled mightily against an Iowa defense that probably has zero future 1st round draft picks, is not on the same level as an Alabama defense that probably has 5 or 6 future 1st round draft picks.  

The last two touchdowns Alabama's defense has given up is a ricochet pass, and a Hail Mary, and it's probably going to take about the same type of play from Michigan State's offense to find the end zone in this game.  The chance of them mounting a methodical touchdown drive against this defense like they did against Iowa is pretty much zero. Took the words right out of my mouth...

If you're betting that Michigan State has faced defenses on par with Alabama's defense, you're gong to lose you're money because they haven't.  While I don't think Michigan State will get shutout in this game, it definitely has shutout potential.  Michigan State will stay as close as their defense can keep it.  Ultimately however, like LSU, Mississippi State, Auburn and Florida before them, their defense will get pulverized in the 2nd half because they simply don't have the depth to withstand the relentless pounding for 4 quarters. This is what I have been saying about all the teams we go against... It stays close for the first half, but I always know that eventually that offensive line and Henry are going to pound teams into submission... I was looking at Michigan St's defensive line, and they have some athletes that are experienced, lots of seniors starting, but they are backed up by freshmen, which will be the reason they fall apart... 

To illustrate, I was watching the Florida game with a kid who is somewhat of a football novice.  Right at the end of the 3rd quarter the announcers mentioned that Henry had 92 yards rushing.  I told the kid that Henry would have between 180 and 200 yards rushing before it was over.  I stressed that he would have AT LEAST 180 yards.  He finished with 189.  The exact same paradigm will play out in this game. 

I would actually like a Michigan State 1st half bet if I could get +10 like I could with Florida, but that's never going to happen.  I have to get over a touchdown to even consider a Sparty 1st half play, and I just don't see that coming to fruition.  Sparty's defense will keep this game close in the 1st half, but they will get brutalized in the 2nd half. Was also saying this that the first half would be a good one... 

Lay the 11 with Alabama, and hammer the crap out of Alabama (2nd half) if the game is somewhat close at the half - which is very likely.


Took the words right out of my mouth as usual... 
 
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Posted: #64
Kiffin and Coker.
Coker and Kiffin.
So these two make up the terrifying, unbeatable team? America ought to do better than these two losers / rejects.
And Henry? What kind of personality is he? Does he speak English? Is he the face of the team? Has anyone ever heard him speak? He is just another big back who gets yards after contact, or makes arm tackling defenses look silly or make him superhuman. Big deal. He's a guy who fits in a system that tries to chew up clock. YAWN
 
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Posted: #65
Quote Originally Posted by Tappy:

Quote Originally Posted by incognegro:

Same story we heard when they were 8 point favs last year to Ohio State, and the year before as 17 point favs to Oklahoma.  Bama lost both outright.  
So just because it happened last year it is guaranteed to happen this year right? Bama should just give up now, not even step out on the field, right? Don't be too upset when you discover I am right...

The only thing we will discover, is that you need to give your keyboard a rest and spare us all your same opinion said a thousand different ways ("Bama is the best. Henry is the best. Everyone else will discover this, what I know...blah blah"). Get off your computer 24/7 and get a job.
 
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Posted: #66

Quote Originally Posted by Relax_Dude:

Kiffin and Coker.
Coker and Kiffin.
So these two make up the terrifying, unbeatable team?

When you get a moment, you may want to revisit the definition of the word "team."

 

 
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Posted: #67
Quote Originally Posted by Tappy:


Coker had more yards and TD's than Henry in the SECCG, had two huge play of the week plays in the Auburn game, saved our fools when Arkansas stacked the box, saved our fools when we lost Ryan Kelly in the AnM game and lowered his shoulder on several drives to win the team over and keep us in the game, and has a game winning drive in the Tennessee game, and he is the leader of our offense... Florida probably has the best secondary, or one of the best in the nation right now and Coker made them look bad... 

Clemson has the 23rd ranked rushing defense in the nation, Florida the 17th, Wisconsin the 4th... Florida was able to contain Henry for the first half, but he imposed his will in the second half, like he does to all his teams and like he would do to Clemson...


I know you're a homer.... But this is where all conversations end... If you believe the garbage coming out of your mouth...more power to ya.


 
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Posted: #68
I did play Spartans, but I bought a half point up to 10. I still think Alabama is mostly hype (not saying they don't have a great defense cuz they obviously do) because of the over value of the SEC as a whole. I do respect Jimmy and have followed him on occasion and I am certainly ahead on his picks, so this is reason for pause. I will tread lightly because of his opinion. There are many other games to make $ on, but I am on Mich St +10 -120. If I lose, it certainly won't be the first time. Decided to dip my toes into the NCAAB pool last night and took an azz whippin!! Too early to get a read on that! Gonna sit on the sidelines for a while I guess. I hate not having any action! GL 
 
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Posted: #69
Quote Originally Posted by Boom_Boom:



I know you're a homer.... But this is where all conversations end... If you believe the garbage coming out of your mouth...more power to ya.



Did you watch the game? You need to check again... Calvin Ridley and Stewart made two catches in double and tripple coverage that no human should be able to make... Coker had over 200 yards and two touchdowns in that game which was more than Derrick Henry... He had no picks and completed 70% of his passes... I wouldn't expect you to understand that though...
 
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Posted: #70
Quote Originally Posted by Tappy:


Did you watch the game? You need to check again... Calvin Ridley and Stewart made two catches in double and tripple coverage that no human should be able to make... Coker had over 200 yards and two touchdowns in that game which was more than Derrick Henry... He had no picks and completed 70% of his passes... I wouldn't expect you to understand that though...


when Clemson and Bama play...

Watson is gonna carve you guys up.....then you will see what " making someone look bad " looks like.


 
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Posted: #71
Quote Originally Posted by Boom_Boom:



when Clemson and Bama play...

Watson is gonna carve you guys up.....then you will see what " making someone look bad " looks like.




as a matter of fact


Watson will have 400+ yards himself vs Bama.

between 275 - 350 passing and 75 - 130 running.
 
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Posted: #72
Don't be too disappointed when you discover you are wrong... Remember that it is just a game, and there is always next yeah.. Bama will prob win another NC next year too, but you can always have hope right? 
 
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Posted: #73
I seriously doubt Clemson beats Oklahoma though... 
 
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Posted: #74
the funniest thing about a gambling message board, is at least 50% of those who swear they know what they are talking about are going to lose once the whistle blows and games over, then will come here and post some lame excuses or disappear till next season GUARANTEED! the other half will talk poo on this board and then promptly lose their winnings on something else soon after, gotta love it!


 
 
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Posted: #75
Quote Originally Posted by Tappy:

Don't be too disappointed when you discover you are wrong... Remember that it is just a game, and there is always next yeah.. Bama will prob win another NC next year too, but you can always have hope right?

Hopefully you discover there's a whole world waiting to be discovered outside of your trailer park "community," and more to this world then Nick Saban's Big Ten football (and Miles also came from the Big Ten) that is consuming your life. The rest of the country is tired of their suffocating style of play, Saban's red faced temper tantrums and miserable expressions, and the sick salary the U of A pays him because alums and boosters are obsessed with winning at all costs. The championship trophy days are over and slim times ahead in the playoff era. America could not be happier to be rid of this rugby ball and the SEC scamming. The Committee has given you a helping hand by helping you avoid Clemson or Oklahoma. But it won't be enough to help their partners in business and crime (ESPN, CBS, SEC). They lose. Please don't commit suicide. It's just a football game.
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