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Alabama -9.5

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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by Tappy:


https://espn.go.com/college-football/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/sort/collegeQuarterbackRating

These are facts, deal with them.. Read those rankings, he sucks...Bad...

 

Cool story bro

 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by John_Pirate:

Michigan State is a much more balanced team then any of the SEC teams Alabama played and destroyed. It's easy to run down a defense like Floridas when their offense can't stay on the field for longer then 2 minutes. Just makes the defense tired in the long run.

It's easy to take the point with MSU.

Quite wrong... Arkansas is identical to state, just better... 

They have a better QB, and a better running back, and they use both and do a lot of play action...

Their defense is built to stop the run as well and they were able to put 9 in the box and limit Henry up until late in the third and fourth... Why? Because they do not have the depth we do on our offensive line.. The same goes for the Miss St, they have all freshmen in their second string... 

Georgia, when we played them also had perfect balance with Greyson Lambert who was top 2 in the SEC and Nick Chubb who was leading the SEC in rushing and they also had a damn good defense... 


 
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Posted: #28
Spartans should be undefeated minus a late 4th quarter meltdown @ Nebraska..
They won in Columbus..

Bama got embarrassed by an Ole Miss team at home that simply just had a good day on defense..

This is too many points in a neutral site game. You telling me Bama would be -17 at home? 

Derrick Henry made a good Gator defense look bad.. Hard to see him run all over Mich St "D".

I am staying away and taking the over.. I see a few turnovers on both sides that will give up a few easy TDs.. Public is all over the under and I think it wont happen..
 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by Tappy:


Quite wrong... Arkansas is identical to state, just better... 

They have a better QB, and a better running back, and they use both and do a lot of play action...

Their defense is built to stop the run as well and they were able to put 9 in the box and limit Henry up until late in the third and fourth... Why? Because they do not have the depth we do on our offensive line.. The same goes for the Miss St, they have all freshmen in their second string... 

Georgia, when we played them also had perfect balance with Greyson Lambert who was top 2 in the SEC and Nick Chubb who was leading the SEC in rushing and they also had a damn good defense... 



Why do you keep talking up this Arkansas team like they are something special?


Arkansas got embarrassed by a horrible Texas Tech team
 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by HabsHater88:

Spartans should be undefeated minus a late 4th quarter meltdown @ Nebraska..
They won in Columbus..

Bama got embarrassed by an Ole Miss team at home that simply just had a good day on defense..

This is too many points in a neutral site game. You telling me Bama would be -17 at home? 

Derrick Henry made a good Gator defense look bad.. Hard to see him run all over Mich St "D".

I am staying away and taking the over.. I see a few turnovers on both sides that will give up a few easy TDs.. Public is all over the under and I think it wont happen..

I would hardly say that 6 points and 5 turnovers is embarassed, but who beat who in this game is irrelevant... Don't over complicate the thinking on this, I made my points very clear on how I think this game will go, and you can bank on that... And The Michigan st D will contain him the first half pretty well, but Coker will do fine and he will wear down a front with no depth down by late third early 4th... They will literally have no success on our defense... They will be very lucky to score in this game, anything more than a FG, trust me...
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by mbialowas:


Why do you keep talking up this Arkansas team like they are something special?


Arkansas got embarrassed by a horrible Texas Tech team
Be honest, have you watched a single game they have played this season? Despite some bad losses due to lack of motivation and bad coaching, they had a great run at the end of the season. The point I was trying to make about them was they have a damn good team with balance... Their QB is ranked higher than States and so is their running back... 
 
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Posted: #32
cook  is good , but after  burbridge  ?

  rb are  ok 
bama  by  14..................  31-17
 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by Tappy:


I would hardly say that 6 points and 5 turnovers is embarassed, but who beat who in this game is irrelevant... Don't over complicate the thinking on this, I made my points very clear on how I think this game will go, and you can bank on that... And The Michigan st D will contain him the first half pretty well, but Coker will do fine and he will wear down a front with no depth down by late third early 4th... They will literally have no success on our defense... They will be very lucky to score in this game, anything more than a FG, trust me...

Same story we heard when they were 8 point favs last year to Ohio State, and the year before as 17 point favs to Oklahoma.  Bama lost both outright.  
 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by incognegro:


Same story we heard when they were 8 point favs last year to Ohio State, and the year before as 17 point favs to Oklahoma.  Bama lost both outright.  

 

Has it been 3 years since Bama won a bowl game?

 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by Tappy:

Quote Originally Posted by Relax_Dude:

Mich St is the best play of the bowl season.
Don't put too much money on this game... Bama will hurt State... I see something like a 34 to 38 to 10 game...

You care about me bro? Aw, how sweet! You seem to care about everyone who thinks about betting against Bama. Aw...what a public service. You're awesome!
 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:

Personally I could not care less who you bet on, but Alabama minus anything less than two touchdowns is the easiest bet of the entire bowl season, because it is far a away the most predictable.

I now you don't want to believe it, but this game will play out exactly like the SEC Championship Game minus the punt return and the Hail Mary.  Alabama minus anything less than 2 touchdowns is an absolute gift from the oddsmakers.  For the love of God, take the free money!

 


not to question your overall football knowledge(cos i know you are definitely one of the very best round here).....but cud this be mis-placed over-confidence and an opinion coloured heavily by bias the same way as was the case the past cupple years in big prime-time games for alabama where you backed them and they failed horribly??...sorry,my memory aint great and i am definitely no follower of college football but i remember reading heated threads where you argued with 1000% conviction that bama wud cover on the road vs texas a&m,and then again the following year(cant remember who the game was against)....you were respectful of other posters but in a diplomatic way you kind of totally dismissed any contrary point of view and even offered a personal wager for any amount with papa shango i think??

i got no problem watsoever with someone being on the wrong side of a bet,heck we all been there a million times before.....but to completely dismiss the possibility that a team as good as spartans can stay withing 10 is just a tad bit fool-hardy dontcha think??

whilst i may not follow college footy i do know about playoff/elimination sport and the funny things it can do to teams/players/coaches and how momentum can snowball and our perceptions can be completely flipped on their head.


oh,i just remember bama may have covered the very early line of -6 on that manziel game but most bettors had -6.5 or more i wud guess and you felt bama wud win by 15+......but anyhow point remains,its cool to be confident but also good to look at both sides of every game.

hope you come back in here to offer further insight and balance if you can.
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:

Personally I could not care less who you bet on, but Alabama minus anything less than two touchdowns is the easiest bet of the entire bowl season, because it is far a away the most predictable.

I now you don't want to believe it, but this game will play out exactly like the SEC Championship Game minus the punt return and the Hail Mary.  Alabama minus anything less than 2 touchdowns is an absolute gift from the oddsmakers.  For the love of God, take the free money!

 



mehhh... I don't know Jimmy.

Alabama is one dimensional. Coker is the worst QB of the 4 team playoff...and in today's game, you HAVE to have a QB. Alabama has a good team, but im not seeing the greatness at all...and you and I know each other for years on here so you know I gonna give it to you straight.

Now with that being said, is it crazy to think Bama can't cover the 10? Of course not....I could see that. But to think that this is a gift IMO is simply not true. Bama has issues with Coker that only Clemson could exploit IMO. If they meet in the championship game Clemson will stack the box..... and put those corners on a island cause they will NOT respect Bama's passing game and when they do drop back to pass, Lawson and the boys will play meet you at the QB.

Will Bama beat Sparty? I think they will, is it a " gift "..... NO way IMO.

 
 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by Tappy:

Quote Originally Posted by MedicalMaryJay:

Not this this has a ton of merit because Alabama is a different team this year, but Ohio st, who blasted Albama last year, returned 80 percent of its players, played Mich st in a very close one possession game and lost. But the team that got trounced by OSU is going to cover 10 against MSU? Yeah this years team is different. Same coaches, same QB, same RB, a couple of pieces of the line are same, etc. You can throw stats till your blue in the face, Mich St is just a solid pick when they are a big dog. Alabamas secondary is good, but they haven't seen WRs like Burbridge and Kings Jr all year. Burbridge > Treadwell. Ohio st defense is not that far from Alabama defense. They are both extremely talented. If mich st scores first, that's going to be a tough task to cover 10. You better hope Bama scores first.
 Yes we have, we have seen Fred Ross for Miss st, and Christian Kirk for AnM... They are both on their level.. .And again, your QB is ranked 41st in the nation... We have faced much better.. Our pass rush is going to cause MAJOR issues for that QB, and our secondary will have it easy, and btw they have not seen a safety like Eddie Jackson, and a LB like Reggie Ragland, or had to block anything like A'shawn Robinson or Jarran Reed...  And our DE's are all amazing as well... At least 4 of our lineman are going to the NFL this year. Did you really just say that Ohio States defense is not that far off from Bama's, and you aren't drunk, or on drugs and are actually being serious?


how many points did Alabama score on Ohio st defense less than a year ago??? How many tappy?
 
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Posted: #39
Honestly, the comments on this thread must be from people who do not watch a lot of SEC ball. You are highly underestimating Alabama and Saban's program. I'm an LSU fan, so trust me I really don't enjoy to say anything positive about the tide, but we are talking spreads here. This is one of Saban's most dedicated teams he's had in his career. That's a bold statement. This is not going to be like Iowa. Alabama will probably embarrass Clemson too. I hate to say it. By the way, they have played really good football after that ole miss loss. (Ole miss is highly underrated)
 
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Posted: #40
Jimmy Da Freak made Alabama over Ohio State a major play. And he hasn't learned his lesson yet. Humans are so stubborn and myopic according to their imprisoning geographical location and affinity towards local cultural phenomena, like university football programs.
 
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Posted: #41
Keep up the Bama propaganda!!! Absolutely love it !!!! $$$$$$$$$$
 
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Posted: #42

Quote Originally Posted by MedicalMaryJay:

Not this this has a ton of merit because Alabama is a different team this year, but Ohio st, who blasted Albama last year, returned 80 percent of its players, played Mich st in a very close one possession game and lost. But the team that got trounced by OSU is going to cover 10 against MSU? Yeah this years team is different. Same coaches, same QB, same RB, a couple of pieces of the line are same, etc. You can throw stats till your blue in the face, Mich St is just a solid pick when they are a big dog. Alabamas secondary is good, but they haven't seen WRs like Burbridge and Kings Jr all year. Burbridge > Treadwell. Ohio st defense is not that far from Alabama defense. They are both extremely talented. If mich st scores first, that's going to be a tough task to cover 10. You better hope Bama scores first.

Football is game about matchups.  That is concept that most gamblers don't seem to grasp.  In this game Michigan State's offense versus Alabama defense is a complete mismatch in favor of Alabama.  The Spartans offense, which struggled mightily against an Iowa defense that probably has zero future 1st round draft picks, is not on the same level as an Alabama defense that probably has 5 or 6 future 1st round draft picks.

The last two touchdowns Alabama's defense has given up is a ricochet pass, and a Hail Mary, and it's probably going to take about the same type of play from Michigan State's offense to find the end zone in this game.  The chance of them mounting a methodical touchdown drive against this defense like they did against Iowa is pretty much zero.

If you're betting that Michigan State has faced defenses on par with Alabama's defense, you're gong to lose you're money because they haven't.  While I don't think Michigan State will get shutout in this game, it definitely has shutout potential.  Michigan State will stay as close as their defense can keep it.  Ultimately however, like LSU, Mississippi State, Auburn and Florida before them, their defense will get pulverized in the 2nd half because they simply don't have the depth to withstand the relentless pounding for 4 quarters.

To illustrate, I was watching the Florida game with a kid who is somewhat of a football novice.  Right at the end of the 3rd quarter the announcers mentioned that Henry had 92 yards rushing.  I told the kid that Henry would have between 180 and 200 yards rushing before it was over.  I stressed that he would have AT LEAST 180 yards.  He finished with 189.  The exact same paradigm will play out in this game.

I would actually like a Michigan State 1st half bet if I could get +10 like I could with Florida, but that's never going to happen.  I have to get over a touchdown to even consider a Sparty 1st half play, and I just don't see that coming to fruition.  Sparty's defense will keep this game close in the 1st half, but they will get brutalized in the 2nd half.

Lay the 11 with Alabama, and hammer the crap out of Alabama (2nd half) if the game is somewhat close at the half - which is very likely.

 
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Posted: #43

Quote Originally Posted by Relax_Dude:

Jimmy Da Freak made Alabama over Ohio State a major play.

You are absolutely correct . . . I had the OVER, and it covered with 3:21 remaining in the 3rd quarter.  So if I bet OVER 58 last season knowing that Ohio State would likely get into the 30s by themselves, that should clue you in that there is no comparison on any level with what happened in the Ohio State game last year, and the match-up with Michigan State this year.  Yet you will be one of the sheep that will be lead to the slaughtered because you will foolishly bet Michigan State this season based on last season's Ohio State game results.

The only Michigan State bet that makes any sense at all is +6 (1st half).  That is a reasonable bet, even though it is not one that I would make.  I would need at least +7.5 to even consider the play.

So if you're really feeling really froggy on Michigan State, do yourself a favor and bet them 1st half.  That bet at least has a fighting chance.

 

 
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Posted: #44

Quote Originally Posted by Relax_Dude:

Jimmy Da Freak made Alabama over Ohio State a major play. And he hasn't learned his lesson yet. Humans are so stubborn and myopic according to their imprisoning geographical location and affinity towards local cultural phenomena, like university football programs.

Actually I have an affinity for winning money wagering on college football, and on this game I will win and you will lose.  It's really that simple.

 

 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by melossinglet:


sorry,my memory aint great and i am definitely no follower of college football but i remember reading heated threads where you argued with 1000% conviction that bama wud cover on the road vs texas a&m,and then again the following year(cant remember who the game was against
 
 
You mean bias like my Florida +10 (1st half) and my Alabama -7.5 (2nd half) winners last week?
 
I can't speak for others, but I had Alabama -6.5 in College Station and won huge on three bets.
 
If you like Michigan State, bet'em.  It's all the same to me.  I suppose my winnings have to come from somewhere.
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by mbialowas:

 

Has it been 3 years since Bama won a bowl game?

I strongly advise you to all in on Michigan State based on this completely worthless stat.

 

 
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Posted: #47

Quote Originally Posted by Relax_Dude:

Keep up the Bama propaganda!!! Absolutely love it !!!! $$$$$$$$$$

I have a strange suspicion that your "love" will wane quickly when you're left holding a worthless Michigan State ticket.

 

 
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Posted: #48
Lean Bama here. MSU has been the beneficiary of winning games by inches and miracle plays. Don't see them doing much vs this Bama defense. Bama by 10 sounds about right. They will wear much St down late in the game.
 
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Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:

Actually I have an affinity for winning money wagering on college football, and on this game I will win and you will lose.  It's really that simple.

 


honestly i 100% hope youre right...cos it gets downright embarassing for you if this happens a third time,shouting from the mountaintops how a team will be lucky to even get on the scoreboard against alabama and how the spread is a "gift"(it NEVER is,books are pretty dumb,right??)...theres never any shame in being wrong about a game obviously...but to not even entertain the idea that theres a possibility they cud not cover in a do-or-die game is foolish in the xtreme....wat on earth will you say in your own defense if they lose outright??......oh thats right,theres no way in a million years that will ever happen,huh??


no-one can ever question your vast knowledge of the game and track record,you are one of the top few guys that post here without doubt...but your views on alabama games are unbalanced in the xtreme and its stung you before so not sure why you wudnt address it in your appraisal of their abilities.
 
 
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Posted: #50

Quote Originally Posted by Boom_Boom:



mehhh... I don't know Jimmy.

Alabama is one dimensional. Coker is the worst QB of the 4 team playoff...and in today's game, you HAVE to have a QB. Alabama has a good team, but im not seeing the greatness at all...and you and I know each other for years on here so you know I gonna give it to you straight.

Now with that being said, is it crazy to think Bama can't cover the 10? Of course not....I could see that. But to think that this is a gift IMO is simply not true. Bama has issues with Coker that only Clemson could exploit IMO. If they meet in the championship game Clemson will stack the box..... and put those corners on a island cause they will NOT respect Bama's passing game and when they do drop back to pass, Lawson and the boys will play meet you at the QB.

Will Bama beat Sparty? I think they will, is it a " gift "..... NO way IMO.

 

**  Alabama's is not one dimensional, but they are definitely more proficient in the running game.

**  Yes, Alabama has the worst QB in the playoffs, but it will only matter if a team can force Alabama to play from behind.

**  Alabama has never had a great QB under Saban in the past.  Nothing has really changed there.  Again, this really won't be much of a factor unless a team can force Alabama to play from behind.

**  Alabama minus anything less than 2 TDs is a gift because of the match-up.  Alabama could not have handpicked a better matchup for themselves than Michigan State (or even Iowa for that matter).  So for people who actually understand football match-ups, Alabama is a very easy play.  This game will play out exactly like the Florida game.

I have not broken down potential future games with Oklahoma or Clemson, but either of those teams is a completely different animal.  Both teams have athletic, play-making QBs that can threaten a defense with the run and pass (much more similar to what Alabama saw versus Ohio State).

As far as stacking the box, pretty much everyone has tried it and have failed, and it really won't be any different with Clemson or Oklahoma.  Absent one of these teams having a double digit lead going into the 4th quarter, the same 4th quarter fate awaits them: Henry will rush for about 100 yards and two touchdowns while Alabama dominates time-of-possession.  No team in the playoff has a defense that can withstand the onslaught of Alabama's running game for 4 quarters.  The only way either Clemson or Oklahoma beat Alabama is to do what Ole Miss did:  get out to a sizeable lead and force Alabama to play catch-up.  If they can't do that, they will lose, particularly the 4th quarter.

**  Alabama's passing blocking is suspect at times, and certainly can be exploited if the opposition can get a lead and force Alabama to air it out, which is clearly not their game.

**  Absent some very freakish circumstances, Michigan State has no chance of getting any type of significant lead to force Alabama to deviate from their game plan.  In fact, Sparty will be fortunate to score at all.

 

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