The Azteca will be bouncing with Mexico facing England in the World Cup Round of 16 tonight. England are slight favorites to advance over Mexico, but this is essentially a coin toss.
England have the quality and tournament experience, but a match at the altitude of the Azteca isn’t always about that, and my Mexico vs. England predictions have this match eclipsing 2.5 goals.
Read on for my World Cup picks for tonight's clash, July 5, with kickoff at 8 p.m. ET on FOX.
Mexico vs England predictions
| Pick | Price |
|---|---|
| Who will win pick: Mexico | +110 |
| Over/Under pick: Over 2.5 goals | +140 |
| Goal scorer pick: Harry Kane | +119 |
Who will win Mexico vs England: Mexico (+110)
Writing this as an Englishman, I’m having to separate my head from my heart. England have the superior players, but there are so many factors in this game that will play into Mexico's hands, who are a strong, quick team themselves and filled with confidence.
In Julian Quinones, they have a player who is dynamic and pacey and can thrive if there are any communication errors between the English defense and the right wing, as there were against DR Congo.
The emergence of 17-year-old Gilberto Mora has added a playmaker to the Mexican midfield, and he’s not afraid of shooting too.
However, it’s the altitude that acts as Mexico’s 12th man here. The iconic stadium sits 2,200 meters above sea level. It’s been reported that VO2max can drop 10-13% at this altitude, and data suggests both total speed and distance covered by players drop hugely too.
The combination of altitude, of which Mexico is familiar, and the hostile atmosphere created by the supporters is an intangible element that has a significant real impact, as shown by El Tri losing just twice in 89 competitive games at the Azteca.
If the game were to finish level in regulation, then the added 30 minutes and time for penalties at altitude would be a real issue for Thomas Tuchel’s men.
On paper, England win this game, but with everything surrounding the players, it’s Mexico advancing that offers the best value.
COVERS INTEL: England have had an average xG (expected goals) of 2.13 per game, which puts them in the top five teams remaining per game, while Mexico’s xG is 1.26 per game. TOp pick
Mexico vs England Over/Under pick: Over 2.5 (+140)
Despite serious concerns over how the environment will impact England, I am expecting goals at the Azteca. This is an England team that, despite some scares, are still averaging two goals scored per game.
However, it’s the defense that could open this game up, with England keeping just two clean sheets in four games, which, when considering the opposition they’ve faced, is poor. England have had a different back four in every game, with injuries and performance level all playing a part in those changes.
What makes me confident in seeing goals and gives me personal hope for an England victory is how Mexico will play. They’re so full of confidence right now, and Javier Aguirre is sending them out to play in an attacking manner every game.
Don’t expect them to sit back in a low-block, which is something England have struggled with at this World Cup; the Mexicans will go out and try to attack.
That should mean an open game, with Tuchel’s team primarily built to play more open and expansive teams, and England’s speed in wide positions should translate to a lot of attacking chances on the counter.
I’d bet Over 2.5 goals at anything plus money.
TOp pick
Mexico vs England goal scorer pick: Harry Kane to score (+119)
I had to double-check when I saw these odds, and I was fully expecting to see Harry Kane at a much shorter price to score. He’s scored five in four during this World Cup, but what makes this such a great wager is how he plays.
His reading of space is excellent, allowing him to get into dangerous positions, knowing the ball will drop there. Then there’s his technical ability, with his second goal against Panama displaying truly world-class technique.
Kane for England is a cheat code, and at plus money he’s a must-play.
See who will have the best opportunities to score goals in our World Cup set-piece takers guide.
Mexico vs England projected lineup
México (4-3-3): Rangel; Sánchez, Vásquez, Montes, Gallardo; Mora, Romo, Lira; Alvarado, Jiménez, Quiñones
England (4-2-3-1): Pickford; Spence, Konsa, Guehi, O’Reilly; Rice, Anderson; Saka, Bellingham, Gordon; Kane
Mexico vs England injuries
Mexico: None.
England: Declan Rice CM (Questionable), Reece James RB (Questionable), Jarrell Quansah DEF (Questionable).
Mexico vs England weather
Temperatures will only be around 70, but there’s a chance of thunderstorms in the build-up to kickoff and the potential for rain during the game.
Mexico vs England odds
| Mexico | England | |
|---|---|---|
| +110 | Moneyline | -108 |
| +233 | Draw | +233 |
| Over 2.5 (+140) | Total | Under 2.5 (-156) |
Odds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch Mexico vs England
Check out FIFA's official 2026 World Cup website for more information.
| Location | Estadio Banorte, Mexico City, Mexico |
| Date | Sunday, July 5, 2026 |
| Time | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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