Two clubs that may see this competition as their best opportunity to lift a trophy this season go head-to-head in the EFL Cup on Thursday night.
My Everton vs. Newcastle predictions point towards a win for the visitors in a game where defenses are likely to be on top.
Read on for my free picks for Thursday, Oct. 30, with kickoff scheduled for 3:45 p.m. ET on Paramount+.
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps. For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Everton vs Newcastle predictions
My Everton vs Newcastle top pick: Newcastle advances (45% probability)
Can you make a good case for Everton given how difficult they find it to win games vs. EPL opposition?
The hosts have won just two of their last 15 EPL games (2W-7D-6L). Sure, both victories came this season – the Toffees are 2W-4D-2L in 2026-27 – but their unimpressive longer-term form cannot be ignored.
Newcastle United can be unpredictable on the road. They won 2-0 at Crystal Palace last weekend, but suffered consecutive 4-1 losses vs. Coventry and Leeds in their previous two away fixtures.
As the outsider of two to advance, Newcastle have marginally more appeal. I would play this up to 52%.
My Everton vs Newcastle Over/Under pick: Under 2.5 (46% probability)
Everton’s best chance of success would be to turn this into a dour, low-scoring contest.
At home, they frequently do. Three of Everton’s four EPL fixtures at their Hill Dickinson Stadium have had two goals or fewer this season (average of 2.3 goals per game).
Instinctively, Newcastle is a more attacking team. At Crystal Palace last weekend, however, they took a more conservative approach as a reaction to conceding four goals in each of their previous two away fixtures.
Given Everton’s natural defensive tendencies and the visitors’ potential caution, the Under is my pick. Play this to 50%.
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Everton vs Newcastle combo
Newcastle advances
BTTS No
By backing the dog in two categories you will get a notable payout on this low-probability outcome.
Newcastle’s chances of advancing to the next round of England’s second cup competition are underrated given they sit one point above Everton in the EPL table.
"No" is the dog in the Both Teams to Score (BTTS) market (42% probability) even though this has cashed in four of Everton’s five home fixtures across all competitions this season.
Everton vs Newcastle odds
Odds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch Everton vs Newcastle
| Location | Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool, England |
| Date | Thursday, Oct. 29, 2026 |
| Time | 3:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | Paramount+ (US) |
| Weather | 58F, calm and clear. |
Everton vs Newcastle key injuries
Everton: Jarrad Branthwaite CB (Questionable), Vitaliy Mykolenko LB (Questionable), Jack Grealish AM (Questionable)
Newcastle: Ewen Jaouen GK (Out), Tino Livramento RB (Out), Lewis Miley CM (Questionable), Matias Fernandez-Pardo ST (Questionable).
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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