We are closing in on MLS Decision Day, and Matchday 33 sees six clubs entering the day with a chance to secure their spot in the Audi 2026 MLS Cup bracket.
Tonight's slate features 14 fixtures, headlined by a clash between Supporters' Shield winners Nashville and a rallying Philadelphia Union squad.
Here are our MLS moneyline picks for the third-to-last regular-season matchday.
MLS moneyline picks for Wednesday, October 28
| Game | Pick |
|---|---|
 Charlotte FC vs  CF Montreal |
Charlotte FC 64% |
 Inter Miami CF vs  FC Cincinnati |
Draw 23% |
 New England Revolution vs  New York Red Bulls |
New England Revolution 50% |
 New York City FC vs  Atlanta United FC |
Draw 23% |
 Toronto FC vs  D.C. United |
Toronto FC 51% |
 Austin FC vs  Real Salt Lake |
Draw 25% |
 Chicago Fire vs  Orlando City SC |
Draw 19% |
 FC Dallas vs  Columbus Crew |
FC Dallas 46% |
 Minnesota United FC vs  Sporting Kansas City |
Minnesota United FC 69% |
 Nashville SC vs  Philadelphia Union |
Draw 24% |
 St. Louis CITY SC vs  Portland Timbers |
St. Louis CITY SC 51% |
 San Jose Earthquakes vs  Colorado Rapids |
San Jose Earthquakes 43% |
 Seattle Sounders vs  Houston Dynamo |
Seattle Sounders 55% |
 Vancouver Whitecaps vs  San Diego FC |
Draw 18% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Expert MLS moneyline picks: October 28
Charlotte FC vs CF Montreal pick: Charlotte
Neither team enters in great form, but Charlotte still have something to play for as they enter the night in fifth place, just five points clear of the play-in spots. Montreal have just two wins and two draws in 15 away matches, while Charlotte have claimed victory in more than 50% of their home fixtures. Look for the visitors to lose for the ninth time in 11 league fixtures as they limp to the end of the season.
Inter Miami CF vs FC Cincinnati pick: Draw
There's no way you could convince me to back Inter Miami at home at a 65% probability, as the Herons have taken just 25 of a possible 45 points in front of their home fans this season. And while they've gone six unbeaten at home, they've drawn three of those outings. FC Cincinnati have won two straight, albeit both against DC United, and have won their last two on the road. Miami are likely to win, but the value here rests solely on the desperate visitors, who are clinging to a playoff spot for dear life, finding a way to secure a point.
New England Revolution vs New York Red Bulls pick: New England
I expected New England to be trading closer to 55%, so this is a strong value. The Revolution sit second in the East, ahead of Inter Miami on tiebreakers, and are riding a three-match winning streak. New York picked up an important 2-0 win over Inter Miami at home but will be without key CB Julian Bazan due to yellow-card accumulation. The home team has won six straight in this rivalry, and I'm backing that trend to continue.
New York City FC vs Atlanta United FC pick: Draw
These teams meet just a month after playing to a 2-2 draw in Atlanta, and both have been highly inconsistent. New York City FC stole a point 10 minutes into stoppage time against Orlando, earning their sixth draw in 11 matches, but have managed just one victory in that span. Atlanta must win out and get some serious help. Both teams will be desperate, and that should lead to another share of the spoils.
Toronto FC vs D.C. United pick: Toronto
D.C. United have lost four of their last five outings and have been outscored 13-4 in the process. They have also picked up just one point from their last five road trips. Toronto sit just three points back of the play-in spots, are unbeaten in their last eight at home, and have more reason to push to the final whistle. I'll back the home team at just over a 50% probability.
Austin FC vs Real Salt Lake pick: Draw
For Austin, it's win or go home. Anything less than three points will mathematically eliminate them from playoff contention. The problem is I don't trust them to get the job done against an improving Real Salt Lake side that's taken 10 of 15 points and is just one point out of a playoff spot with a match in hand. A draw would be more than satisfactory for the visitors against an Austin side with just one win in their last six matches — this weekend's late comeback over lowly Sporting KC.
Chicago Fire FC vs Orlando City SC pick: Draw
This is another spot where the home team is getting far too high a probability. Chicago were less than convincing in their win over Atlanta, and they'll be without two starters due to suspension. Orlando come in with a four-match unbeaten streak and are scoring goals for fun. A point on the road will be vital for their playoff chances.
FC Dallas vs Columbus Crew pick: Dallas
This is where fatigue and suspensions finally catch up with Columbus. They've won five of their last six in the league, but this will be their sixth fixture in 18 days, and they played a man down for more than 20 minutes against Toronto. Dallas are unbeaten in six at home, with three straight wins, and they'll pick up another victory as they look to hold on to second place in the West.
Minnesota United FC vs Sporting Kansas City pick: Minnesota
This is a no-play at anything north of 60%. That said, the Loons still have an outside shot at the playoffs, having picked up six points from their last four matches. They have to win now, though, and there's no better side against which to pick up three points than a Sporting KC squad that has conceded 43 goals in 15 away fixtures. Sporting lose for the fifth time in six matches as they continue to falter.
Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union pick: Draw
Nashville's win at the weekend clinched the Supporters' Shield, and B.J. Callaghan is likely to rotate the squad as he looks to keep everyone healthy for the postseason. Philadelphia sit sixth in the East and need a result here, but will be without Cavan Sullivan as he recovers from the knock he picked up against Charlotte. The draw offers strong value.
St. Louis City SC vs Portland Timbers pick: St. Louis City SC
Party time is over for St. Louis, and picking up three points is vital as a top finish in the West is still possible. Portland have been abysmal on the road this season, while St. Louis are unbeaten in their last 12 in all competitions. They've won three of their last four at home, with the lone draw coming against Vancouver, and at 51%, they're strong value to pick up the victory.
San Jose Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids pick: San Jose
Colorado are a bad road team, and San Jose must take advantage. Their loss to Dallas ended a nine-match unbeaten run and now leaves them barely ahead of Houston for fourth place, which brings a home playoff match. Both teams are dealing with a lot of injuries, but San Jose's depth will be key, especially with Colorado traveling on short rest. I'm backing the home side to find a way to win late.
Seattle Sounders vs Houston Dynamo pick: Seattle
Houston come in on the back of four consecutive draws and are hoping to secure their first win over Seattle in 11 matches across all competitions. Seattle have lost just once in their last 12 matches, and the home-pitch advantage will be massive as they need a victory to solidify their playoff spot. I'm backing the Sounders to get the late win over a Houston side sliding down the table.
Vancouver Whitecaps vs San Diego FC pick: Draw
Our final pick fades a far-too-favored side that hasn't been consistent. There's no way Vancouver should be trading at 70%. San Diego have drawn five of their last six, continuing to find ways not to win while also refusing to lose. Vancouver have just one victory in six matches and have an ever-growing injury list. I don't think San Diego have a win in them, but I also don't believe Vancouver should be north of 55%. The draw is the smart play at this number.
- Moneyline picks: 155-227, -4.84 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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