They may be neck-and-neck in the standings, but the Seattle Storm are a distinct favorite against the Washington Mystics at home tonight, particularly when the underdogs are traveling across the country for an extended West Coast road trip.
That road swing did not get off to an auspicious start on Tuesday, so if Washington hopes to avoid an 0-3 week, it will need to spring an upset tonight. Here are our WNBA picks and predictions for the Mystics vs. Storm on June 23, with tip-off set for 10:00 ET.
Mystics vs Storm odds
The Storm opened as a 2.5-point favorite late Wednesday night before Thursday morning action pushed this line all the way to -4.5. The total saw far less movement, opening at 153.0 and moving up to 153.5 at some books and even 154.5 at others.
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks. Compare WNBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Mystics vs Storm predictions
Predictions made on 6/23/2022 at 3:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Mystics vs Storm info
• Location: Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle, WA
• Date: Thursday, June 23, 2022
• Tip-off: 10:00 p.m. ET
• TV: MSN
Mystics vs Storm betting preview
Key injuries
Mystics: Elizabeth Williams C (Out).
Storm: Mercedes Russell C (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Mystics are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as underdogs, a stretch that comes entirely within this season. Find more WNBA betting trends for Mystics vs. Storm.
Mystics vs Storm picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The return of Elena Delle Donne on Sunday gave the Mystics a needed lift, as they beat Connecticut 71-63 behind her 15 points and six rebounds. The superstar has played in only four of Washington’s nine games this month, with the Mystics only winning one of the five contests without her.
Delle Donne should play tonight, making Washington an intriguing underdog pick, and facing the Storm at home should not be too much to overcome. Seattle is 6-3 straight-up at home this season but only 4-5 ATS.
Frankly, the fact that the Mystics are 11-8 despite having Delle Donne for only 11 games underscores just how good they are. With Delle Donne, Washington is 8-3.
Washington is one of the best teams in the league with her in the lineup. By no means is Seattle a doormat, standing at 10-6, though that is a few steps behind the Mystics when at full strength. And by full strength, all that is pertinent is Delle Donne’s presence.
Prediction: Mystics +4.5 (-110 at Caesars)
Over/Under analysis
If you sort the league by defensive rating, these are two of the top three teams. Of course, bookmakers knew that when they made this total.
In fact, they probably overcompensated for it, hence it ticking upward once the line opened. That has now created an opportunity to enjoy these two excellent defenses. The Mystics have held three of their last four opponents to 77 or fewer points, giving up an average of 72.3 points in their last four games.
The Storm, meanwhile, have given up fewer than 80 points in three of their last four games, all of which were on the road. It will take multiple outlier performances to push this game over its inflated total.
Prediction: Under 155 (-110 at WynnBet)
Best bet
If Washington is undervalued with Delle Donne in the lineup — and to be clear, she partook in morning shootaround and there is no indication she will be absent today — let’s get greedy and capitalize aggressively.
The moneyline has ballooned, and we're also leaning into Washington’s 8-3 record with its best player available. That is not a particularly small sample size.
If the Mystics do not win tonight, this is likely to be a wasted road trip. That will lend some urgency to the proceedings tonight which gives us an edge at +155.
Pick: Mystics moneyline (+155 at PointsBet)
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