The New York Liberty begin a west coast road trip Sunday, July 3 with a matchup against the Los Angeles Sparks. Both New York and L.A. have been trending in the right direction lately, but that’s just about the only similarity between these two squads.
Our free WNBA betting picks and predictions for Liberty vs. Sparks details why the contrasting styles for these two teams should produce an exciting, high-scoring game.
Liberty vs Sparks odds
The Los Angeles Sparks are -3.5 point home favorites, while the total has seen a slight rise from 16.1.5 to 162.5.
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks. Compare WNBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
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Liberty vs Sparks predictions
Predictions made on 7/3/2022 at 3:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Liberty vs Sparks info
• Location: Crytpo.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA
• Date: Sunday, July 3, 2022
• Tip-off: 6:00 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS Sports, Spectrum Sportsnet
Liberty vs Sparks betting preview
Key injuries
Liberty: Betnijah Laney G (Out) Rebecca Allen G (Out).
Sparks: No injuries to report.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings between these teams. Find more WNBA betting trends for Liberty vs. Sparks.
Liberty vs Sparks picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The New York Liberty and Los Angeles Sparks come into Sunday’s matchup owning identical 8-11 records. But that’s where the similarities stop. This is a matchup of multiple, interlocking contrasts. It’s the youth of New York vs. Los Angeles’ veteran experience. It’s the Sparks bigs vs. the Liberty’s guards. It’s Nneka Ogwumike’s interior scoring vs. Sabrina Ionescu’s perimeter playmaking.
It’s also a stylistic fight representative of two different eras of basketball. The Liberty represent the current trends of spacing and 3-point shooting brought on by the Seven Seconds or Less Phoenix Suns. The Sparks meanwhile pound the rock inside with Nneka Ogwumike and Liz Cambage leading the attack from the post with play not unfamiliar to fans of 90s basketball.
L.A. weathered a series of controversies earlier in the year (including replacing its head coach) and have somewhat righted the ship recently, coming off arguably its best win of the season against the Seattle Storm. The Sparks have a serious size and skill advantage on the inside against the Liberty but will be fighting a math problem against New York’s superior 3-point volume and efficiency.
There is no one on this Liberty team that sees serious minutes that does not take 3-pointers. Even their centers, Stefanie Dolson and Han Xu have been stroking them from deep all season.
They got off to a slow start as well, and as they’ve been missing 2021 WNBA All-Star Betnijah Laney, all year expectations for them were modest. But they’ve been pushing the right buttons lately, winning three of their last five — including a signature win against the league-leading Connecticut Sun.
They’ve been led by first-time All-Star Sabrina Ionescu in both points (16.6) and assists (6.2) but have seen contributions from up and down the roster as they’ve begun to gel.
Ionescu will have her hands full against the Sparks' front court, but their offensive process gives them a shot to steal this one on the road.
Prediction: Liberty +3.5 (-110 at bet365)
Over/Under analysis
The Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings between New York and Los Angeles. While much of these rosters have changed over in that time, their team philosophies and the star talent have been relatively stable. The Sparks still can’t stop the Liberty from bombing away, and meanwhile, L.A. racks up the points in the paint against New York with impunity.
The Liberty emphasize ball and player movement, which are both objectively good things for an offense. But with a team this young, it comes with pitfalls. At 19.9%, their turnover rate is second highest in the WNBA, gifting transition opportunities to opposing offenses. These teams are both also extremely foul prone, which also favors the Over.
The total has already seen a small bump since it was set on Saturday, but with both teams likely to have success with their primary offensive actions, it’s still too low at this number
Prediction: Over 162.5 (-110 at bet365)
Best bet
While both these teams have been better of late, the Sparks have been maddeningly inconsistent, especially on the defensive end. They also seem to play down to their competition, with the Over going 5-0 in their last five games vs. a team with a losing record. In other words, they get caught slipping when an opponent they perceive to have inferior talent comes out swinging.
That seems a likely recipe with this Liberty squad that is filled with shooters up and down the roster. Particularly impressive recently has been the play of Marine Johannes.
Because of commitments to the French National team, she had not played for New York since her rookie season in 2019 but is making up for lost time. She’s yet another high-volume 3-point shooting guard, comfortable shooting both off the dribble and coming off screens.
Defending movement shooting like that takes a collective team effort, and It’s hard to see Los Angeles being tenacious and consistent enough to keep the Liberty’s offense on ice.
Pick: Over 162.5 (-110 at bet365)
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