Today's game will be an interesting third match between two teams with WNBA championship aspirations. This afternoon, the Washington Mystics will host the Connecticut Sun in a critical matchup that will give fans a better understanding of where these two squads stand as we head into All-Star weekend.
Will Washington's defensive prowess that has given many teams fits this season be able to handle a recently struggling Connecticut offense? Find out in our WNBA betting picks and predictions for Mystics vs. Sun.
Mystics vs Sun odds
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Mystics vs Sun predictions
Predictions made on 7/3/2022 at 1:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Mystics vs Sun info
• Location: Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CT
• Date: Sunday, July 3, 2022
• Tip-off: 1:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Mystics vs Sun betting preview
Key injuries
Mystics: Elena Delle Donne F (Out).
Sun: Jasmine Thomas G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 9-3 in the Mystics' last 12 games against Eastern Conference opponents. Find more WNBA betting trends for Mystics vs. Sun.
Mystics vs Sun picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
This matchup features two of the better teams in the WNBA. Connecticut has a bigger reputation on the offensive side of the ball, while the Mystics have a reputation as one of the best defensive teams in the league. The Sun are coming off a wake-up call as the Chicago Sky blitzed them in a 91-83 loss. Connecticut trailed by 16 points after the first quarter and never gained enough steam to mount a serious comeback. How will the league's No. 2 offense (106.9 rating) fair in this one?
The two teams have split victories this season, with the Sun winning by eight points in May and the Mystics returning the favor with an eight-point victory in June. Connecticut is in its first real season dilemma, entering today with a 1-3 record in its last four games. The one victory wasn't an impressive one, as it defeated the recently struggling Atlanta Dream (72-61) while losing to the Mystics (71-63), New York Liberty (81-77), and Sky (91-83).
Since June 19, the Sun's offense has taken a significant step backward, posting the 11th best offensive rating in the league at 93.4. In that same timespan, their shooting percentage (48.0) and effective field goal percentage (43.5) ranked 12th best in the league. These numbers are far from ideal as they prepare to face a team that prides itself on defense.
Take the points! At 96.5, Washington has the No. 1 defensive rating in the WNBA. Elizabeth Williams (90.3), Shakira Austin, and Shatori Walker-Kimbrough (92.2) all rank within the Top 25 in the WNBA in defensive rating. The Mystics will keep this one tight.
Prediction: Mystics +4.5 (-108 at FanDuel)
Over/Under analysis
Washington is a team that lacks high-powered scoring options that can take over a game and drive the offense. The team is also shooting a troubling 43.7% from the field. In its most recent meeting this season, both teams shot less than 43% from the field.
The Mystics only have three starters scoring double-digit points per game this year. On the season, Ariel Atkins is the only player in Washington posting a Top 25 offensive rating at 105.2. To make matters worse, Elena Delle Donne hasn't played three consecutive games since mid May. It is expected she will rest for today's match as well. Where will the points be generated from, with the leading scorer (15.3 ppg) resting?
On the flip side, the Sun have struggled on offense, partly due to their lack of aggression. They are settling for jump shots and not getting to the rim. This is evident as they averaged 21.6 free throws per game before June 19, the second-best in the league.
Since then, those numbers have plummeted to an average of 16.3 attempts per game. Connecticut is leaving points on the board when it settles. The Sun's fastbreak points have also taken a hit, dropping from 12.2 to 9.8 per game.
Earlier in the season, Jonquel Jones, DeWanna Bonner, and Natisha Hiedeman were all excellent, knocking down 3-pointers at impressive clips. Of late, their percentages from behind the arc have caved tremendously, down to the high teens and low 20s. I'm not confident they will suddenly find their groove against this aggressive and intelligent Washington defense.
Prediction: Under 164.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Best bet
One thing has become evident when closely assessing these two teams of late. The Sun have found themselves in challenging deficits they've had to persevere through.
Connecticut is 1-4 in its last five games' first quarter money line. This even includes two games in which it found itself down double-digit points. Most recently, Chicago jumped to a 32-16 lead against the Sun. This team hasn't been able to figure it out in the first quarter of late.
Washington will come out with a great deal of defensive pressure early and will set the tone in the first frame. On the other hand, the Mystics aren't perfect, but they are 4-3 in their last seven first quarters. This includes the most recent matchup between the Sun and Mystics, where they jumped out to a 29-17 commanding lead.
Pick: Mystics first-quarter moneyline (+120 at FanDuel)
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