The Ravens defense has been struggling, and the Chiefs, who pass at a Top-10 rate because they can't run the ball will be pasing from start to finish Sunday afternoon. Xavier Worthy could be back this week—he was at practice on Wednesday—but Tyquan Thornton's role is hard to ignore. Thornton leads the team in target share (21.4%) with Worthy out, per John Daigle, and also led all pass-catchers last week in route and snap share. He posted a nine-target game and scored from the 5-yard line. If Worthy is out, this price will drop significantly. Worthy is priced into this number, so if you wait, make sure you get to it quick if Worthy is out. I'll take +390 as the No.3 pass option in a spread-it-around offense in a high total game.
Lamar has got to be sick of watching his teammates ruin all his hard work. This will be playoff-like intensity in Arrowhead and I see Jackson springing into action with his legs. On Monday, he was sacked seven times. Baltimore’s o-line is showing some soft spots and KC’s pass rush came up big in the second half of SNF. In six matchups with Steve Spagnoulo’s defense, Lamar has run for at least 46 yards, including highs of 83, 107 and 122 yards in Week 1 last season. Projections all above the 40-yard bar, with some as high as 55 yards.
I jump on the rare chance to take the Chiefs as pups – 67.5% ATS since 2018. The Ravens defense ranks 27th in EPA allowed per play and 29th in opponent success rate. They’re not getting stops on third down and the red-zone defense ranks Bottom 5 in the league. The Chiefs have their own foibles to start 2025. The offense has sputtered with some key WRs missing and this once-feared defense was flat, but the Chiefs started to look like themselves - on both sides of the ball - in the second half of Sunday’s win over the Giants. KC is 5-1 SU versus the Ravens since 2018, including 3-0 SU as the home team.
Patrick Mahomes has gone 11-5 SU and 12-3-1 ATS as an underdog in his career. Meanwhile, Lamar Jackson is 1-4 in his career against the Chiefs, with the lone win coming by a single point. Those trends are tough to ignore, as is the fact that the Ravens are playing on the road on a short week after losing to the Lions on Monday Night. Baltimore's defense has looked vulnerable (especially with Pro Bowl DT Nnamdi Madubuike sidelined), and Kansas City's offense finally came alive on Sunday.
It’s out of the frying pan and into the fire for the Ravens, who travel to Arrowhead on a short week after a Monday nighter with Detroit. Kansas City will likely be coming off a shit-kicking of the Giants on SNF in Week 3, allowing them to rest starters and pull back the playbook before this huge AFC encounter with Baltimore. The Chiefs have won four of the last five head-to-head meetings with the Ravens, while covering the spread in three of those games.
Lamar Jackson's passing accuracy has gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 67.6% to 72.4%.. With an exceptional ratio of 2.25 per game (100th percentile), Lamar Jackson has been among the leading TD throwers in the league this year.
The projections expect the Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 65.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs offense to be the 3rd-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 26.79 seconds per play.. The projections expect Patrick Mahomes to throw 39.8 passes this week, on average: the 2nd-most out of all QBs.. Opposing teams have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season: most in football.. When talking about pass-blocking (and the positive impact it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Chiefs ranks as the 10th-best in football since the start of last season.
Lamar Jackson's passing accuracy has gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 67.6% to 72.4%.. With an impressive 9.08 adjusted yards-per-target (100th percentile) this year, Lamar Jackson ranks as one of the most effective passers in the NFL.. Since the start of last season, the anemic Chiefs defense has surrendered the 7th-most yards-after-the-catch in football to the opposing side: a colossal 4.64 YAC.
With an elite 56.4% Snap% (80th percentile) since the start of last season, Derrick Henry stands as one of the RBs with the most usage in football.. Derrick Henry has earned a whopping 0.3% of his team's air yards this year: 78th percentile among RBs.. Derrick Henry profiles as one of the most effective pass-catchers in football among RBs, averaging an outstanding 9.65 adjusted yards-per-target since the start of last season while ranking in the 92nd percentile.. Derrick Henry grades out as one of the leading running backs in the league at grinding out extra yardage in the passing game, averaging a fantastic 10.05 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 91st percentile.
The projections expect the Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 65.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs offense to be the 3rd-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 26.79 seconds per play.. Opposing teams have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season: most in football.. Isiah Pacheco's 48.2% Route Participation Rate this season marks a significant boost in his passing offense utilization over last season's 33.5% figure.. When talking about pass-blocking (and the positive impact it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Chiefs ranks as the 10th-best in football since the start of last season.
In this week's contest, Mark Andrews is predicted by the projection model to rank in the 75th percentile among TEs with 4.5 targets.. Mark Andrews has put up a colossal 42.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 93rd percentile among tight ends.. Mark Andrews ranks in the 88th percentile among TE WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive involvement) with an impressive 35.2 mark since the start of last season.. Mark Andrews comes in as one of the most effective receivers in the NFL among TEs, averaging a remarkable 9.88 adjusted yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 91st percentile.. Since the start of last season, the weak Chiefs defense has conceded a monstrous 62.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing TEs: the worst in football.
The predictive model expects Zay Flowers to accrue 8.6 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 91st percentile when it comes to wide receivers.. Zay Flowers has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of 27.4% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 94th percentile among wideouts.. Zay Flowers has put up a staggering 75.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 83rd percentile among wideouts.. Zay Flowers has been one of the top WRs in the game this year, averaging a fantastic 52.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 88th percentile.. Zay Flowers's 70.4% Adjusted Catch% this year reflects a noteworthy progression in his receiving prowess over last year's 65.7% figure.
The projections expect the Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 65.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs offense to be the 3rd-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 26.79 seconds per play.. Opposing teams have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season: most in football.. When talking about pass-blocking (and the positive impact it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Chiefs ranks as the 10th-best in football since the start of last season.. The Ravens defense has yielded the 2nd-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (162.0) versus wide receivers since the start of last season.
The projections expect the Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 65.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs offense to be the 3rd-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 26.79 seconds per play.. Opposing teams have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season: most in football.. Our trusted projections expect Marquise Brown to garner 7.4 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 83rd percentile among WRs.. When talking about pass-blocking (and the positive impact it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Chiefs ranks as the 10th-best in football since the start of last season.
At the moment, the 4th-slowest paced offense in football (in a neutral context) according to the model is the Ravens.. Derrick Henry's 62.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year indicates a material decrease in his running skills over last year's 118.0 mark.. The Kansas City Chiefs defense boasts the 5th-best efficiency against opposing running games since the start of last season, surrendering just 4.13 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).
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