SPREAD
ATL
-4.5 spread
-5.1
PROJECTION
-0.6
DIFFERENCE
2.03%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
ATL
-4.5 spread
Close Modal
-5.1
PROJECTION
-0.6
DIFFERENCE
2.03%
EV
This matchup features the New England Patriots battling the Buffalo Bills. Scheduled for kickoff at 7:00 PM ET, this game promises to be an intriguing clash between two teams with distinct strengths and weaknesses.. The New England Patriots enter this contest looking to improve their offensive output, which has been inconsistent this season. With a passing game that ranks 25th in the league, the Patriots will need to find a rhythm against a Buffalo defense that has shown flashes of brilliance. The Buffalo Bills, on the other hand, boast one of the top offenses in the league, currently ranked 3rd in scoring. Led by their dynamic quarterback, the Bills have the capability to put points on the board quickly, making them a challenging opponent for any defense.. From a betting perspective, the spread is expected to reflect the Bills' offensive prowess. Bettors should keep an eye on the total points line, as both teams have shown tendencies to either score heavily or struggle to find the end zone. The Patriots' defense has been solid, ranking 8th overall, but they will be tested against a Bills team that can exploit mismatches in the secondary.. In terms of trends, the Bills have been strong against the spread in recent matchups, particularly when playing at home. The Patriots will need to pull off an upset to keep their playoff hopes alive, making this a must-watch game for fans and bettors alike. As the kickoff approaches, all eyes will be on how these two teams adapt their strategies to secure a crucial victory in the tightly contested AFC.
-4.5
-110
TOTAL
44.8 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.3
DIFFERENCE
7.52%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds Caesars
Best Odds
44.8 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.3
DIFFERENCE
7.52%
EV
This matchup features the New England Patriots battling the Buffalo Bills. Scheduled for kickoff at 7:00 PM ET, this game promises to be an intriguing clash between two teams with distinct strengths and weaknesses.. The New England Patriots enter this contest looking to improve their offensive output, which has been inconsistent this season. With a passing game that ranks 25th in the league, the Patriots will need to find a rhythm against a Buffalo defense that has shown flashes of brilliance. The Buffalo Bills, on the other hand, boast one of the top offenses in the league, currently ranked 3rd in scoring. Led by their dynamic quarterback, the Bills have the capability to put points on the board quickly, making them a challenging opponent for any defense.. From a betting perspective, the spread is expected to reflect the Bills' offensive prowess. Bettors should keep an eye on the total points line, as both teams have shown tendencies to either score heavily or struggle to find the end zone. The Patriots' defense has been solid, ranking 8th overall, but they will be tested against a Bills team that can exploit mismatches in the secondary.. In terms of trends, the Bills have been strong against the spread in recent matchups, particularly when playing at home. The Patriots will need to pull off an upset to keep their playoff hopes alive, making this a must-watch game for fans and bettors alike. As the kickoff approaches, all eyes will be on how these two teams adapt their strategies to secure a crucial victory in the tightly contested AFC.
o43.5
-110
MONEYLINE
ATL
-225 moneyline
ATL
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
11.05%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
ATL
-225 moneyline
Close Modal
ATL
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
11.05%
EV
This matchup features the New England Patriots battling the Buffalo Bills. Scheduled for kickoff at 7:00 PM ET, this game promises to be an intriguing clash between two teams with distinct strengths and weaknesses.. The New England Patriots enter this contest looking to improve their offensive output, which has been inconsistent this season. With a passing game that ranks 25th in the league, the Patriots will need to find a rhythm against a Buffalo defense that has shown flashes of brilliance. The Buffalo Bills, on the other hand, boast one of the top offenses in the league, currently ranked 3rd in scoring. Led by their dynamic quarterback, the Bills have the capability to put points on the board quickly, making them a challenging opponent for any defense.. From a betting perspective, the spread is expected to reflect the Bills' offensive prowess. Bettors should keep an eye on the total points line, as both teams have shown tendencies to either score heavily or struggle to find the end zone. The Patriots' defense has been solid, ranking 8th overall, but they will be tested against a Bills team that can exploit mismatches in the secondary.. In terms of trends, the Bills have been strong against the spread in recent matchups, particularly when playing at home. The Patriots will need to pull off an upset to keep their playoff hopes alive, making this a must-watch game for fans and bettors alike. As the kickoff approaches, all eyes will be on how these two teams adapt their strategies to secure a crucial victory in the tightly contested AFC.
-225
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
0.25 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
17.94%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
0.25 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
17.94%
EV
This week's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Panthers, who are -4.5-point underdogs.. At the moment, the 3rd-most pass-centric offense in the NFL near the end zone (61.0% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Panthers.. Since the start of last season, the stout Falcons run defense has given up a puny 0.58 rushing TDs per game to opposing teams: the 3rd-lowest rate in football.. When it comes to the safeties' role in defending against the run, Atlanta's safety corps has been great since the start of last season, ranking as the best in the NFL.
+425
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
0.51 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
16.8%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
0.51 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
16.8%
EV
The 4th-most plays in football have been called by the Falcons since the start of last season (a whopping 59.7 per game on average).. Drake London has been a big part of his team's passing attack near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 38.8% since the start of last season, which places him in the 100th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.. When it comes to air yards, Drake London grades out in the lofty 96th percentile among WRs since the start of last season, accumulating a whopping 97.0 per game.. Drake London's 73.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive volume) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 99th percentile for wide receivers.. With an excellent rate of 0.47 per game through the air (86th percentile), Drake London rates as one of the best receiving touchdown-scorers in the NFL among wide receivers since the start of last season.
+155
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
0.17 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
16.8%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
0.17 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
16.8%
EV
The 4th-most plays in football have been called by the Falcons since the start of last season (a whopping 59.7 per game on average).. The Panthers defense has yielded the most passing TDs in the NFL: 1.95 per game since the start of last season.. When it comes to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Carolina's LB corps has been very bad since the start of last season, grading out as the worst in the NFL.
+650
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
0.84 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
16.66%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
0.84 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
16.66%
EV
The 4th-most plays in football have been called by the Falcons since the start of last season (a whopping 59.7 per game on average).. Bijan Robinson has been heavily involved in his team's offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 14.3% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 95th percentile when it comes to RBs.. Bijan Robinson has been in the 98th percentile for running back WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) with an astounding 22.7 mark since the start of last season.. With a stellar ratio of 0.11 per game through the air (80th percentile), Bijan Robinson places as one of the best receiving TD-scorers in football when it comes to RBs since the start of last season.. Since the start of last season, the porous Panthers defense has been gouged for a whopping 73.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 4th-biggest rate in football.
-195
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
0.15 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
13.98%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
0.15 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
13.98%
EV
This week's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Panthers, who are -4.5-point underdogs.. At the moment, the 3rd-most pass-centric offense in the NFL near the end zone (61.0% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Panthers.. The Atlanta Falcons defense has given up the most passing touchdowns in football: 1.95 per game since the start of last season.. Since the start of last season, the stout Falcons run defense has given up a puny 0.58 rushing TDs per game to opposing teams: the 3rd-lowest rate in football.. When it comes to the safeties' role in defending against the run, Atlanta's safety corps has been great since the start of last season, ranking as the best in the NFL.
+700
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
0.61 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
13.58%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
0.61 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
13.58%
EV
This week's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Panthers, who are -4.5-point underdogs.. At the moment, the 3rd-most pass-centric offense in the NFL near the end zone (61.0% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Panthers.. Chuba Hubbard places in the 86th percentile when it comes to running back WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive involvement) with an astounding 16.7 mark since the start of last season.. Chuba Hubbard grades out in the 95th percentile among running backs when it comes to catching TDs since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 0.18 per game.. The Falcons defense has been gouged for the most receiving touchdowns in football to RBs: 0.37 per game since the start of last season.
-105
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
0.3 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
12.59%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
0.3 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
12.59%
EV
The 4th-most plays in football have been called by the Falcons since the start of last season (a whopping 59.7 per game on average).. Kyle Pitts has been a key part of his team's passing attack near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 18.1% since the start of last season, which places him in the 85th percentile when it comes to TEs.. In regards to air yards, Kyle Pitts grades out in the towering 88th percentile among TEs since the start of last season, totaling an astounding 36.0 per game.. Kyle Pitts has been in the 82nd percentile for tight end WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive involvement) with a remarkable 31.9 mark since the start of last season.. Kyle Pitts's receiving reliability have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate rising from 65.2% to 82.3%.
+310
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
0.33 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-4.15%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
0.33 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-4.15%
EV
This week's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Panthers, who are -4.5-point underdogs.. At the moment, the 3rd-most pass-centric offense in the NFL near the end zone (61.0% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Panthers.. Since the start of last season, the shaky Falcons defense has been gouged for a colossal 1.26 receiving touchdowns per game to opposing wide receivers: the largest rate in the NFL.. Since the start of last season, the stout Falcons run defense has given up a puny 0.58 rushing TDs per game to opposing teams: the 3rd-lowest rate in football.. When it comes to the safeties' role in defending against the run, Atlanta's safety corps has been great since the start of last season, ranking as the best in the NFL.
+195
RECEPTIONS MADE
3.4 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
8.96%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
3.4 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
8.96%
EV
The Falcons are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.. The model projects the Falcons to be the 4th-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 51.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 121.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Atlanta's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially inflated (and running stats decreased) on account of playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league. We should be able to count on some correction with windier weather this week.. Opposing teams have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game against the Carolina Panthers defense since the start of last season: 7th-fewest in the NFL.
u3.5
-106
RECEPTIONS MADE
5.2 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
6.05%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
5.2 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
6.05%
EV
The Falcons are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.. The model projects the Falcons to be the 4th-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 51.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 121.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Atlanta's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially inflated (and running stats decreased) on account of playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league. We should be able to count on some correction with windier weather this week.. Opposing teams have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game against the Carolina Panthers defense since the start of last season: 7th-fewest in the NFL.
u5.5
-118
RECEPTIONS MADE
2.9 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.6
DIFFERENCE
5.02%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
2.9 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.6
DIFFERENCE
5.02%
EV
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the model to see only 121.5 offensive plays run: the fewest on the slate this week.. The fewest plays in football have been called by the Panthers since the start of last season (a measly 55.2 per game on average).. Chuba Hubbard's 80.0% Adjusted Completion Rate this season reflects an impressive decline in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 83.0% rate.. As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Atlanta's collection of LBs has been very good since the start of last season, projecting as the 7th-best in the NFL.
u3.5
-150
RECEPTIONS MADE
3.3 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
3.7%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
3.3 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
3.7%
EV
The Falcons are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.. The model projects the Falcons to be the 4th-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 51.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 121.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Atlanta's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially inflated (and running stats decreased) on account of playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league. We should be able to count on some correction with windier weather this week.. Opposing teams have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game against the Carolina Panthers defense since the start of last season: 7th-fewest in the NFL.
u3.5
-115
RECEPTIONS MADE
3.2 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.7
DIFFERENCE
3.21%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
3.2 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.7
DIFFERENCE
3.21%
EV
This week's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Panthers, who are -4.5-point underdogs.. The Panthers rank as the 10th-most pass-heavy offense in football (in a neutral context) this year with a 64.9% pass rate.
o2.5
-148
RECEPTIONS MADE
4.7 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-15.61%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
4.7 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-15.61%
EV
This week's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Panthers, who are -4.5-point underdogs.. The Panthers rank as the 10th-most pass-heavy offense in football (in a neutral context) this year with a 64.9% pass rate.. The Falcons pass defense has been torched for the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (68.1%) to WRs since the start of last season (68.1%).
o4.5
-168
PASSING TOUCHDOWNS
1.3 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
7.57%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
1.3 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
7.57%
EV
The Falcons are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.. The model projects the Falcons to be the 4th-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 51.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. At the present time, the 5th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL in the red zone (51.7% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Atlanta Falcons.. Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Atlanta Falcons are forecasted by the projections to call just 60.9 total plays in this contest: the lowest number on the slate this week.. Opposing teams have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game against the Carolina Panthers defense since the start of last season: 7th-fewest in the NFL.
u1.5
-142
PASSING TOUCHDOWNS
1.2 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
-2.1%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
1.2 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
-2.1%
EV
Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Carolina Panthers are projected by the predictive model to call only 61.0 plays on offense in this contest: the 3rd-lowest number on the slate this week.. The fewest plays in football have been called by the Panthers since the start of last season (a measly 55.2 per game on average).. Bryce Young's 58.4% Adjusted Completion% this season signifies a meaningful decrease in his passing accuracy over last season's 61.9% rate.. As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Atlanta's collection of LBs has been very good since the start of last season, projecting as the 7th-best in the NFL.
u1.5
-211
PASSING COMPLETIONS
18.6 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.9
DIFFERENCE
10.92%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
18.6 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.9
DIFFERENCE
10.92%
EV
The Falcons are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.. The model projects the Falcons to be the 4th-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 51.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 121.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Atlanta's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially inflated (and running stats decreased) on account of playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league. We should be able to count on some correction with windier weather this week.. Opposing teams have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game against the Carolina Panthers defense since the start of last season: 7th-fewest in the NFL.
u19.5
-111
PASSING COMPLETIONS
20.4 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
-6.21%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
20.4 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
-6.21%
EV
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the model to see only 121.5 offensive plays run: the fewest on the slate this week.. The fewest plays in football have been called by the Panthers since the start of last season (a measly 55.2 per game on average).. Bryce Young's 58.4% Adjusted Completion% this season signifies a meaningful decrease in his passing accuracy over last season's 61.9% rate.. As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Atlanta's collection of LBs has been very good since the start of last season, projecting as the 7th-best in the NFL.
u20.5
-105
PASSING ATTEMPTS
27.9 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.6
DIFFERENCE
16.07%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Caesars
Best Odds
27.9 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.6
DIFFERENCE
16.07%
EV
The Falcons are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.. The model projects the Falcons to be the 4th-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 51.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 121.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Atlanta's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially inflated (and running stats decreased) on account of playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league. We should be able to count on some correction with windier weather this week.. Opposing teams have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game against the Carolina Panthers defense since the start of last season: 7th-fewest in the NFL.
u30.5
-139
PASSING ATTEMPTS
31.5 UNDER
PROJECTION
-2.0
DIFFERENCE
13.48%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
31.5 UNDER
PROJECTION
-2.0
DIFFERENCE
13.48%
EV
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the model to see only 121.5 offensive plays run: the fewest on the slate this week.. The fewest plays in football have been called by the Panthers since the start of last season (a measly 55.2 per game on average).
u34.5
-150
PASSING YARDS
206.8 UNDER
PROJECTION
-10.7
DIFFERENCE
21.02%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
206.8 UNDER
PROJECTION
-10.7
DIFFERENCE
21.02%
EV
The Falcons are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.. The model projects the Falcons to be the 4th-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 51.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 121.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Atlanta's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially inflated (and running stats decreased) on account of playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league. We should be able to count on some correction with windier weather this week.. Opposing teams have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game against the Carolina Panthers defense since the start of last season: 7th-fewest in the NFL.
u217.5
-115
PASSING YARDS
206.4 UNDER
PROJECTION
-6.1
DIFFERENCE
15.96%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
206.4 UNDER
PROJECTION
-6.1
DIFFERENCE
15.96%
EV
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the model to see only 121.5 offensive plays run: the fewest on the slate this week.. The fewest plays in football have been called by the Panthers since the start of last season (a measly 55.2 per game on average).. Bryce Young's 58.4% Adjusted Completion% this season signifies a meaningful decrease in his passing accuracy over last season's 61.9% rate.. With a feeble 5.69 adjusted yards-per-target (15th percentile) this year, Bryce Young has been as one of the least effective QBs in the league.. Since the start of last season, the stout Atlanta Falcons defense has given up the 6th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing offenses: a puny 7.4 yards.
u212.5
-115
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
0.4 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
19.04%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
0.4 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
19.04%
EV
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the model to see only 121.5 offensive plays run: the fewest on the slate this week.. The fewest plays in football have been called by the Panthers since the start of last season (a measly 55.2 per game on average).. As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Atlanta's collection of LBs has been very good since the start of last season, projecting as the 7th-best in the NFL.
u0.5
+106
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
0.4 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
13.89%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
0.4 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
13.89%
EV
The Falcons are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.. The model projects the Falcons to be the 2nd-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 50.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Atlanta Falcons are forecasted by the projections to call just 61.2 total plays in this contest: the 3rd-lowest number on the slate this week.. Atlanta's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially inflated (and running stats decreased) on account of playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league. We should be able to count on some correction with windier weather this week.. Opposing teams have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game against the Carolina Panthers defense since the start of last season: 7th-fewest in the NFL.
u0.5
-129
RECEIVING YARDS
33.1 OVER
PROJECTION
+7.6
DIFFERENCE
24.95%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
33.1 OVER
PROJECTION
+7.6
DIFFERENCE
24.95%
EV
This week's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Panthers, who are -4.5-point underdogs.. The Panthers rank as the 10th-most pass-heavy offense in football (in a neutral context) this year with a 64.9% pass rate.. The Falcons pass defense has struggled when opposing TEs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 5.93 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the most in football.
o25.5
-112
RECEIVING YARDS
60.1 UNDER
PROJECTION
-5.4
DIFFERENCE
20.96%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
60.1 UNDER
PROJECTION
-5.4
DIFFERENCE
20.96%
EV
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the model to see only 121.5 offensive plays run: the fewest on the slate this week.. The fewest plays in football have been called by the Panthers since the start of last season (a measly 55.2 per game on average).. Since the start of last season, the fierce Atlanta Falcons pass defense has allowed the 5th-least yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing wide receivers: a mere 3.5 YAC.. As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Atlanta's collection of LBs has been very good since the start of last season, projecting as the 7th-best in the NFL.
u67.5
-115
RECEIVING YARDS
37.6 UNDER
PROJECTION
-3.9
DIFFERENCE
20.23%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
37.6 UNDER
PROJECTION
-3.9
DIFFERENCE
20.23%
EV
The Falcons are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.. The model projects the Falcons to be the 4th-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 51.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 121.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Atlanta's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially inflated (and running stats decreased) on account of playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league. We should be able to count on some correction with windier weather this week.. Opposing teams have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game against the Carolina Panthers defense since the start of last season: 7th-fewest in the NFL.
u41.5
-112
RECEIVING YARDS
68.8 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.3
DIFFERENCE
17.88%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
68.8 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.3
DIFFERENCE
17.88%
EV
The 4th-most plays in football have been called by the Falcons since the start of last season (a whopping 59.7 per game on average).. In this game, Drake London is anticipated by the projection model to secure a spot in the 92nd percentile among WRs with 8.5 targets.. Drake London has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 30.8% since the start of last season, which places him in the 99th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.. When it comes to air yards, Drake London grades out in the lofty 96th percentile among WRs since the start of last season, accumulating a whopping 97.0 per game.. Drake London comes in as one of the leading WRs in the league since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 77.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 95th percentile.
o64.5
-110
RECEIVING YARDS
17.9 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.4
DIFFERENCE
12.48%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
17.9 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.4
DIFFERENCE
12.48%
EV
This week's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Panthers, who are -4.5-point underdogs.. The Panthers rank as the 10th-most pass-heavy offense in football (in a neutral context) this year with a 64.9% pass rate.. With an elite 61.0% Route Participation Rate (95th percentile) since the start of last season, Chuba Hubbard rates as one of the pass-game running backs with the biggest workloads in football.. In this week's game, Chuba Hubbard is projected by our trusted projection set to place in the 93rd percentile when it comes to RBs with 4.0 targets.. Chuba Hubbard's 7.8 adjusted yards per target this year represents a noteable growth in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 3.5 rate.
o16.5
-112
RECEIVING YARDS
26.9 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.4
DIFFERENCE
10.35%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
26.9 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.4
DIFFERENCE
10.35%
EV
The 4th-most plays in football have been called by the Falcons since the start of last season (a whopping 59.7 per game on average).. With an elite 67.5% Route Participation Rate (100th percentile) since the start of last season, Bijan Robinson rates as one of the RB receiving threats with the biggest workloads in the NFL.. The model projects Bijan Robinson to total 4.7 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 96th percentile when it comes to running backs.. Bijan Robinson checks in as one of the top RBs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging an exceptional 29.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 97th percentile.. Bijan Robinson's 9.3 adjusted yards per target this year represents an impressive gain in his receiving talent over last year's 6.3 mark.
o24.5
-118
RUSHING YARDS
64.8 OVER
PROJECTION
+10.3
DIFFERENCE
24.75%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
64.8 OVER
PROJECTION
+10.3
DIFFERENCE
24.75%
EV
In this contest, Chuba Hubbard is forecasted by our trusted projection set to slot into the 83rd percentile when it comes to RBs with 15.8 rush attempts.. Among all RBs, Chuba Hubbard ranks in the 93rd percentile for rush attempts this year, taking on 63.4% of the workload in his offense's run game.. Chuba Hubbard has grinded out 76.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the largest figures in football among RBs (94th percentile).. The Falcons defense owns the 7th-worst efficiency against opposing run games since the start of last season, giving up 4.73 adjusted yards-per-carry.
o54.5
-112
RUSHING YARDS
72.5 UNDER
PROJECTION
-10.0
DIFFERENCE
24.3%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
72.5 UNDER
PROJECTION
-10.0
DIFFERENCE
24.3%
EV
The leading projections forecast this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 121.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. After accounting for 65.3% of his offense's rush attempts last year, Bijan Robinson has played a smaller part in the rushing attack this year, currently taking on only 54.8%.. As it relates to the defensive ends' role in stopping the run, Carolina's unit has been very good since the start of last season, ranking as the 4th-best in the NFL.
u83.5
-113
RUSHING YARDS
7.8 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.3
DIFFERENCE
21.94%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
7.8 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.3
DIFFERENCE
21.94%
EV
The Falcons are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.. The leading projections forecast the Atlanta Falcons to be the 4th-most run-focused offense among all teams this week with a 48.8% run rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The 4th-most plays in football have been called by the Falcons since the start of last season (a whopping 59.7 per game on average).. Atlanta's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially inflated (and running stats decreased) on account of playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league. We should be able to count on some correction with windier weather this week.. Since the start of last season, the porous Panthers run defense has conceded a colossal 186.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to the opposing side: the most in the NFL.
o5.5
-110
RUSHING YARDS
17.5 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.0
DIFFERENCE
20.79%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
17.5 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.0
DIFFERENCE
20.79%
EV
With a stellar record of 6.8 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) (75th percentile), Bryce Young has been as one of the top running QBs in football since the start of last season.. With a terrific rate of 1.92 yards-after-contact (75th percentile), Bryce Young stands among the leading rushing QBs in football this year.. The Falcons defense owns the 7th-worst efficiency against opposing run games since the start of last season, giving up 4.73 adjusted yards-per-carry.
o14.5
-107
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
15.8 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.7
DIFFERENCE
18.61%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
15.8 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.7
DIFFERENCE
18.61%
EV
The leading projections forecast this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 121.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. After accounting for 65.3% of his offense's rush attempts last year, Bijan Robinson has played a smaller part in the rushing attack this year, currently taking on only 54.8%.. As it relates to the defensive ends' role in stopping the run, Carolina's unit has been very good since the start of last season, ranking as the 4th-best in the NFL.
u17.5
-102
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
2.5 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.0
DIFFERENCE
11.08%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
2.5 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.0
DIFFERENCE
11.08%
EV
The leading projections forecast this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 121.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. As it relates to the defensive ends' role in stopping the run, Carolina's unit has been very good since the start of last season, ranking as the 4th-best in the NFL.
u2.5
+116
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
2.9 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.6
DIFFERENCE
8.58%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
2.9 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.6
DIFFERENCE
8.58%
EV
This week's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Panthers, who are -4.5-point underdogs.. The predictive model expects the Panthers as the 10th-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 41.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the model to see only 121.5 offensive plays run: the fewest on the slate this week.. The fewest plays in football have been called by the Panthers since the start of last season (a measly 55.2 per game on average).. When it comes to the safeties' role in defending against the run, Atlanta's safety corps has been great since the start of last season, ranking as the best in the NFL.
u3.5
-139
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
15.0 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
6.89%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
15.0 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
6.89%
EV
In this contest, Chuba Hubbard is forecasted by our trusted projection set to slot into the 83rd percentile when it comes to RBs with 15.8 rush attempts.. Among all RBs, Chuba Hubbard ranks in the 93rd percentile for rush attempts this year, taking on 63.4% of the workload in his offense's run game.
o14.5
+102