Best NFL Picks Today

Give me Pat Freiermuth at 21% to score a touchdown on Thursday Night Football against the Cleveland Browns, as I price him closer to 27% to find the end zone. The strength of this Browns defense is Denzel Ward on the outside, taking away throws to the boundary. Aaron Rodgers is obviously a very cerebral quarterback, so why would he force the ball into tight windows against one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL when he can focus his progressions over the middle of the field and pick apart these Browns linebackers as they try to cover Freiermuth? I don't think the Browns have a hybrid defender who can match the 6-foot-5 Freiermuth on a jump ball while also having the athleticism to match his speed on routes near the goal line.

Indianapolis tight end Tyler Warren scored in the Colts’ first two games of the season and has a solid shot at finding the end zone in Hotspur Stadium on Sunday. Warren will be a popular passing target for Jones, given Washington’s aggressive pass rush. The Commanders are dialing up the blitz at the fourth highest rate, leaving tight ends plenty of room to operate underneath the coverage for quick releases. Washington has allowed the seventh most yards to TEs but more notably, has given up five touchdowns to the position in only three games. Adding to those issues is an illness to SS Nick Cross, who didn’t make the trip to London. Warren has caught all three balls thrown his way inside the red zone, two of which ended in six points. Touchdown projections for Warren sit between 32% and 50%, with most models at 40%+.

I have this at 3.08x, with Michael Wilson's TD at a fair price of 2.7x after a 17-target Week 3. His target share has been on the rise, from 19% in Week 1 to 27% in Week 2 and then 34% last week. He is getting fed, and that volume comes in a game against a New York defense that is still thin in the secondary and ranks near the bottom of the league in EPA/dropback. It's tough to find a WR1 at longer than 2.8x, especially one in a game where Arizona can score and might be able to win the time-of-possession battle against a Giants offense that is likely being run by Jameis Winston. It's a play on the price and volume.

I'm buying Khalil Shakir at 3.55x with a fair price of 3.2x. Trevor Lawrence might not have had a huge game last week against the Patriots, but he was perfect in the red zone, going 5-for-5 with three passing TDs, all coming to his wide receivers. Josh Allen has been quite greedy in the red zone with eight carries for five TDs and a 61% run rate inside the 20. With Allen's health already showing some concern after he picked up a knee injury late in Week 3, and turnovers being an issue, some more passing in tight could go a long way in the Bills' play calling. This season, Shakir has the most red-zone targets of all the Buffalo pass catchers and played the most snaps among the wide receivers in Week 3 at 71%. He hasn't looked great this year, but the snaps, red-zone usage, and hopeful change in RZ philosophy have me reaching here at this long price when DJ Moore is too short at 2.5x.

I liked Braelon Allen with Breece Hall in the lineup. Now that Hall is out, Allen will have next to zero competition for work and should have all the red-zone opportunities. Allen already had six of the Jets' 14 running back red-zone opportunities this year, while Isaiah Davis has played zero offensive snaps this season and 56 on special teams. Even last year, the backup had just 43 carries in 16 games. I'm not sold on this Chicago defense that has allowed just 16 points over the last two weeks after allowing 37 to Carolina in the opener. If he is an 80/20 back, this TD price should be closer to 50/50.

Dallas tight end Jake Ferguson has seen his involvement in the Cowboys’ passing attack tick up the past two games, drawing a total of nine passes for seven receptions and a collective 66 yards. He’s run 82 routes on 128 total snaps, garnering a 10.9% target rate through three games, which is pretty good when you consider CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens are on the field. Ferguson faces a Houston defense getting bullied by tight ends this season. The Texans have watched rival TEs catch 18 of 21 pass attempts for 213 yards – fourth most in the NFL. Houston’s linebacking corps is thin and its top coverage LBs are either injured or out in Week 4. Ferguson’s projections are very positive for Sunday, ranging from 25 yards to a ceiling of 38 yards. My number shakes out to 31+ receiving yards from the Dallas TE.

I got this at 4.3x, and if both Terrance Ferguson and Colby Parkinson sit, this should have a fair price of 3.5x. The Rams use heavy tight-end sets at one of the highest rates in football, and even if Puka Nacua suits up, Tyler Higbee will have a ton of snaps. He took advantage of those snaps last week, seeing nine targets and leading the team with eight receptions and a score. He also has the same number of red-zone targets as Davante Adams. The Rams' PROE is climbing after a run-heavy game in Australia, and a negative game script could have Matthew Stafford throwing the ball 40-plus times again this week. I'm getting on this early, as Ferguson is likely out and Parkinson isn't practicing early in the week. Davis Allen to score at 9x is also worth a sniff.

The Buccaneers' offense has a massive downgrade with undrafted rookie quarterback Jalon Daniels under center, but that is certainly priced into this TD prop. Bucky Irving was as short as 56% just two weeks ago, but this still seems 5% too long against a bad Packers team that can't run the ball or stop it. Irving took some snaps off last week because of a back issue but has been fine at practice this week. If the rookie gets into the red zone, Irving will be leaned on heavily, and the Packers are giving up 1.3 rushing TDs to opposing RBs, which is the highest rate in football.

This is the longest Lamar Jackson has been for a TD since Week 1. He was 2.9x last week and 2.85x in Week 2, and I think anything at 3x or better is a buy this week vs. the Titans. The Baltimore team total sits at 27.5, and this might seem like a spot where Derrick Henry gets all the goal-line work, but the Ravens could be down to their No. 4 option at center, which is first-round guard Olaivavega Ioane. Tackle Ronnie Stanley and starting guard John Simpson also opened their practice windows in limited fashion. There could be some issues for a team that is running the ball 33% in the red zone. The Titans actually rank 11th in red-zone defense, and there could be a few more scrambles or designed runs inside the 20 on Sunday than expected.

I got this at 3.66x and would play to 3.4x. The Bengals are a tight-end funnel. No team gives up more yards to opposing tight ends than Cincinnati at 92 yards per game, which is a full 10-plus yards more than the next team. Having both starting safeties limited to start the week only makes this spot for Brenton Strange even better. The No. 1 tight end had five targets last week, is playing 75% of the snaps (second among pass catchers), and is running 74% of the routes. There are a lot of mouths to feed in this Jacksonville offense, but Strange has a red-zone role, and the price makes him my favorite TD pick in this game, which could see both sides score 25-plus points.

THE BLITZ has this at a fair price of 6x, and if Justin Jefferson sits out, this should shorten up. Tai Felton would be the WR3 if Jefferson sits after taking 90% of the snaps following Jefferson's injury. He saw two targets on 19 routes. The Dolphins are going to be more of a joke than usual this week without De'Von Achane, and Minnesota could be dealing with short fields all game. This is my long shot of the week.

I got this at 2.95x, and Brock Bowers should be in that 2.6x range in a tough matchup. It's an indoor home game, which helps, but Bowers also saw 13 targets last week (43% target share) and had double-digit receptions and a score. He has a 92% route share on the season, and his monstrous 43.3% target share leads all of football. I don't care who the home matchup is against. If I'm getting 2.7x or better with this target share, I'm saying yes every week. Kansas City has been an average defense against the position this year.

AJ Barner has four TDs over his last 10 games and was as short as 3.1x in the playoffs last year. Now that the Seahawks can't run the ball, Barner's scoring role is better than it was in the postseason. He leads all Seahawks with an 85% snap share on the season, runs the second-most routes (71%), and has a tush-push role on the goal line and in short yardage, which might be needed this week after the running backs gained one yard on three RZ carries last week. The injuries to Jadarian Price (LP) and George Holani (LP) only help.

The Niners have fattened up on cupcake opponents the past two weeks, facing Arizona and Miami, and honestly have been doing so since their winning streak to end 2025. The Broncos are a step up in competition, especially if the offensive progress made in the second half of Week 3 sticks. Denver was stuck in mud for its first 150 minutes of football but broke out for 30 points in the final two frames in the comeback win over the Rams Sunday. The vile electrical substation had a huge Week 3, claiming the souls of some of San Francisco’s top talents on both sides of the ball. Denver wins the battle in the trenches in Week 4.

Jalen Coker was practicing on the side at practice on Thursday after exiting Week 3, and Xavier Legette was a DNP. The Panthers are thin at wide receiver against one of the worst pass defenses in football. The Lions rank 29th in EPA/dropback and success rate, and the injuries to Kerby Joseph (out), Brian Branch (out), and DJ Reed (questionable) only make this more of a pass funnel. Brycen Tremayne is giving great value at his 8.5x price, which should be closer to 5x. He played 81% of the snaps last week and ran 76% of the routes while getting six targets for 83 yards. If Coker and Legette miss out, this could realistically shorten up to 30%.

I got this at 3.3x and have this at 3x. Juwan Johnson got 20% of the targets in a 40+ dropback outing last night, bringing in all eight of his targets and scoring twice. He has six red-zone targets for three TDs this year and ranks second at the position in targets inside the 20. Travis Etienne is injured, which could boost the passing volume, and the Falcons rank in the bottom third of the league in TDs allowed to tight ends. Johnson has become the No. 2 pass option in an offense that ranks third in passing yards per game.