Best NFL Picks Today

Give me the Lions catching 4.5 points, as I make them closer to a 3-point underdog against the Buffalo Bills on Thursday Night Football. A lot will be made about Detroit's secondary, but it's not like Buffalo's secondary was slowing down the Texans' offense in Week 1. Jared Goff needs a clean pocket to be effective, and I think Penei Sewell is the key to this matchup. Sewell can completely neutralize Bradley Chubb one-on-one, allowing the Lions to shift their protection toward Ed Oliver and Greg Rousseau. That should give Detroit a better chance to keep Goff's jersey clean without compromising its route numbers.

An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Titans being a giant -7-point underdog in this game.. The predictive model expects the Tennessee Titans as the 10th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 59.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect the Titans to be the 6th-quickest paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, with opposing offenses averaging 28.31 seconds per play.. In this contest, Wan'Dale Robinson is projected by our trusted projection set to position himself in the 89th percentile among WRs with 7.6 targets.. Wan'Dale Robinson has notched a massive 74.0 air yards per game last year: 84th percentile when it comes to WRs.

The Steelers are built for Unders, and the Patriots lack game-breaking talent on offense with wide receiver A.J. Brown (ankle) out and running back TreVeyon Henderson (ankle) still nursing an injury. Pittsburgh quarterback Aaron Rodgers completed just 60% of his passes for a pedestrian 5.6 yards per attempt in Week 1, and New England QB Drake Maye’s 5.4 YPA and 6.5 aDoT in the season opener don’t jump off the page, either. The Steelers also allowed the fourth-lowest EPA per play, with the Pats surrendering the seventh lowest ahead of Monday Night Football, so we’re landing a fair number on this Under given the lack of offensive explosiveness going against this pair of stout stop units.

While Wentz was serviceable, I see more than two points separating him and Murry in terms of value to the spread. That’s especially true if the Bears can break away on the scoreboard and force Wentz to carry the load. Minnesota’s defense is dangerous but gave up a ton of yards to the Packers. If we take the Cheeseheads’ fourth-quarter collapse out of the equation, the Vikes stop unit was 21st in EPA allowed per play in the first three quarters. Murray’s chances of clearing concussion protocols seems slim when you look at his reaction to the hit. Once he’s officially ruled out, this spread jumps to Bears -6 or higher. Give me Chicago below the key number now.

The New York Jets averaged just 17.6 ppg last year and while Geno Smith is an upgrade at quarterback, I'm unconvinced that he's going to improve the situation all that much at age 35. Meanwhile, the Jets defense will get pressure on a one-dimensional Green Bay Packers offense that totaled just 66 yards on the ground against the Vikings. I'm backing the Under down to 42.5 points.

The New Orleans Saints looked dead in the water for the first 30 minutes of the 2026 season. They were 27th in EPA per play in the first half versus Detroit on Sunday before the Lions took their foot off the gas and found themselves in an overtime squeaker. New Orleans’ output looks better than it was, scoring six points in the extra frame (before missing the 2-point convert). The Baltimore Ravens hung 41 points on Indianapolis in Week 1 but took a hit in the receiving corps, losing Zay Flowers and Ja'Kobi Lane to injury. This group was already thin and could have Baltimore’s offense short and simple in Week 2. The Ravens ran at the second highest rate in the opener (58%), mainly due to protecting a big lead in the second half. But they could be forced into similar handoffs with the passing game missing pieces.

The Bengals got four takeaways and still had to sweat out the Bucs in Week 1. Houston's defense bounces back and that offense is improved and always strong at home. The Texans were 9 for 18 on 3rd/4th down conversions and went 4/5 for TDs in the red zone. Cincy finished 2/5 in RZ and needed a defensive score and four FGM (two 50+ yarders) to get to 33 points, despite those extra possesions.

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Broncos to pass on 60.1% of their plays: the 8th-highest rate on the slate this week.. The leading projections forecast this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 131.9 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The Broncos have run the 8th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a staggering 58.7 plays per game.. The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a prominent pass funnel last year, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the most passes in the NFL (37.5 per game) last year.. The projections expect Evan Engram to accrue 5.5 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 86th percentile among TEs.

This game's line implies an extreme rushing game script for the Chargers, who are a heavy favorite by 7 points.. The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 6th-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 47.6% run rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. The 7th-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Los Angeles Chargers since the start of last season (a colossal 59.5 per game on average).

A passing game script is indicated by the Cardinals being a -4-point underdog in this week's game.. The predictive model expects the Arizona Cardinals as the 3rd-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 62.8% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. The 4th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Arizona Cardinals since the start of last season (a staggering 60.0 per game on average).. The Seattle Seahawks defense has been a prominent pass funnel last year, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 4th-most passes in football (36.1 per game) last year.. Jacoby Brissett grades out as one of the best quarterbacks in the league last year, averaging a stellar 220.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 90th percentile.

The projections expect the Dolphins to be the 5th-most run-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 41.9% run rate.. Our trusted projections expect De'Von Achane to accrue 16.2 rush attempts this week, on balance, placing him in the 88th percentile among RBs.. De'Von Achane has received 62.9% of his team's rushing play calls last year, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among RBs.. De'Von Achane has grinded out 68.0 adjusted rushing yards per game last year, one of the biggest figures in the league among running backs (96th percentile).. With an impressive tally of 5.16 adjusted yards per carry (90th percentile), De'Von Achane stands among the best pure rushers in the NFL last year.

This game's spread suggests a passing game script for the Commanders, who are -3.5-point underdogs.. The leading projections forecast this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 130.9 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.. The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop-off.. Opposing offenses have averaged 33.6 pass attempts per game versus the Cowboys defense last year: 9th-most in the NFL.. The projections expect Terry McLaurin to garner 7.6 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 89th percentile when it comes to WRs.

The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to run the 3rd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.0 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. The Indianapolis Colts defense has been something of pass funnel last year, tempting opposing offenses to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the NFL (36.2 per game) last year.. The predictive model expects Kenneth Walker III to be a more important option in his team's pass game near the goal line this week (12.8% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (4.5% in games he has played).. In regards to pocket protection (and the strong effect it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Kansas City Chiefs ranks as the 8th-best in football last year.. Kenneth Walker III is positioned as one of the best possession receivers in football among running backs, hauling in an exceptional 91.5% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, grading out in the 90th percentile.

Sean McVay is an excellent game planner with added time he'll work out the kinks on this offense. Matthew Stafford couldn’t get going against the 49ers but faces a softer stop unit from the Giants. New York’s defense looked much better than it truly was in Week 1, due to the offense grinding out gains and chewing up TOP. The Cowboys offense only had two second half possessions and while it was limited in action, Dallas ranked out well in terms of advanced metrics like EPA per play DVOA. This is a fast track indoor at SoFi Stadium and it doesn’t seem likely that L.A.’s offense gets bottled up for a second straight game.