Best NFL Picks Today

All in all, it was a quiet opener for Cook in what turned into a shootout in Houston. He carried the ball only 13 times and was targeted on four passes for three receptions. That lack of involvement was addressed by offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael. “I think any time you can get ball in James Cook’s hands, it’s a great thing,” Carmichael told the media. “The opportunities to get the ball in his hands will be important, going forward.” OK, Pete. We’re trusting you here. Touchdown projections give Cook between a 60% and 77% shot at finding paydirt at new Highmark.

Our trusted projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles to run the 7th-most total plays among all teams this week with 65.4 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. The Eagles have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to result in increased pass volume, lower running volume, and improved offense effectiveness when facing better weather in this week's game.. When talking about pass-blocking (and the positive effect it has on all passing game metrics), the offensive line of the Philadelphia Eagles profiles as the 2nd-best in football last year.. Jalen Hurts has been among the best touchdown throwers in the NFL last year, averaging an exceptional 1.47 per game while checking in at the 80th percentile.. Last year, the porous Tennessee Titans defense has given up a massive 74.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 3rd-worst rate in the league.

The Steelers are built for Unders, and the Patriots lack game-breaking talent on offense with wide receiver A.J. Brown (ankle) out and running back TreVeyon Henderson (ankle) still nursing an injury. Pittsburgh quarterback Aaron Rodgers completed just 60% of his passes for a pedestrian 5.6 yards per attempt in Week 1, and New England QB Drake Maye’s 5.4 YPA and 6.5 aDoT in the season opener don’t jump off the page, either. The Steelers also allowed the fourth-lowest EPA per play, with the Pats surrendering the seventh lowest ahead of Monday Night Football, so we’re landing a fair number on this Under given the lack of offensive explosiveness going against this pair of stout stop units.

While Wentz was serviceable, I see more than two points separating him and Murry in terms of value to the spread. That’s especially true if the Bears can break away on the scoreboard and force Wentz to carry the load. Minnesota’s defense is dangerous but gave up a ton of yards to the Packers. If we take the Cheeseheads’ fourth-quarter collapse out of the equation, the Vikes stop unit was 21st in EPA allowed per play in the first three quarters. Murray’s chances of clearing concussion protocols seems slim when you look at his reaction to the hit. Once he’s officially ruled out, this spread jumps to Bears -6 or higher. Give me Chicago below the key number now.

The New York Jets averaged just 17.6 ppg last year and while Geno Smith is an upgrade at quarterback, I'm unconvinced that he's going to improve the situation all that much at age 35. Meanwhile, the Jets defense will get pressure on a one-dimensional Green Bay Packers offense that totaled just 66 yards on the ground against the Vikings. I'm backing the Under down to 42.5 points.

The New Orleans Saints looked dead in the water for the first 30 minutes of the 2026 season. They were 27th in EPA per play in the first half versus Detroit on Sunday before the Lions took their foot off the gas and found themselves in an overtime squeaker. New Orleans’ output looks better than it was, scoring six points in the extra frame (before missing the 2-point convert). The Baltimore Ravens hung 41 points on Indianapolis in Week 1 but took a hit in the receiving corps, losing Zay Flowers and Ja'Kobi Lane to injury. This group was already thin and could have Baltimore’s offense short and simple in Week 2. The Ravens ran at the second highest rate in the opener (58%), mainly due to protecting a big lead in the second half. But they could be forced into similar handoffs with the passing game missing pieces.

The Bengals got four takeaways and still had to sweat out the Bucs in Week 1. Houston's defense bounces back and that offense is improved and always strong at home. The Texans were 9 for 18 on 3rd/4th down conversions and went 4/5 for TDs in the red zone. Cincy finished 2/5 in RZ and needed a defensive score and four FGM (two 50+ yarders) to get to 33 points, despite those extra possesions.

This game's spread indicates an extreme rushing game script for the Buccaneers, who are a massive favorite by 8.5 points.. Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to pass on 51.3% of their chances: the 3rd-lowest frequency on the slate this week.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by the model to see just 125.4 offensive plays called: the 5th-fewest on the slate this week.. The projections expect Baker Mayfield to throw 30.2 passes in this week's game, on average: the 2nd-fewest among all QBs.. Opposing teams have averaged 28.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Browns defense last year: 4th-fewest in the league.

The model projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 8th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 60.1% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the model to see 131.9 offensive plays called: the highest number among all games this week.. The Jaguars have run the 9th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a massive 58.4 plays per game.. In this week's contest, Trevor Lawrence is expected by the projection model to wind up with the 5th-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 36.2. . Opposing offenses have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game versus the Denver Broncos defense last year: 6th-most in the league.

An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Raiders being a huge -7-point underdog in this game.. The leading projections forecast the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 5th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 60.4% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Calm weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being forecasted in this game) usually prompt increased passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and lower rush volume.. Last year, the deficient Los Angeles Chargers defense has given up the most yards-after-the-catch in the league to the opposing side: a staggering 0.00 YAC.

A passing game script is indicated by the Cardinals being a -4-point underdog in this week's game.. The predictive model expects the Arizona Cardinals as the 3rd-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 62.8% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. The 4th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Arizona Cardinals since the start of last season (a staggering 60.0 per game on average).. The Seattle Seahawks defense has been a prominent pass funnel last year, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 4th-most passes in football (36.1 per game) last year.. Jacoby Brissett grades out as one of the best quarterbacks in the league last year, averaging a stellar 220.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 90th percentile.

The 49ers rank as the 4th-most pass-centric offense in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year with a 80.0% red zone pass rate.. The 10th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the San Francisco 49ers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).. When it comes to air yards, Christian McCaffrey grades out in the lofty 100th percentile among RBs last year, averaging an astounding 21.0 per game. (due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more remarkable than it sounds since most RBs have negative air yards).. Christian McCaffrey slots into the 100th percentile among running back WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive involvement) with a superb 41.1 figure last year.. Christian McCaffrey ranks in the 100th percentile among RBs when it comes to catching touchdowns last year, averaging a terrific 0.35 per game.

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 58.9% of their plays: the 10th-greatest rate on the slate this week.. The model projects this game to see the highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The 2nd-highest number of plays in the league have been run by the Cowboys last year (a massive 60.6 per game on average).. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop-off.. Last year, the feeble Commanders defense has allowed the most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing tight ends: a massive 10.17 yards.

The Colts are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Indianapolis Colts to pass on 0.0% of their opportunities: the lowest frequency among all teams this week.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is predicted by the predictive model to see 130.6 total plays called: the 4th-highest number among all games this week.. The Colts offensive line grades out as the best in football last year in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.. Last year, the poor Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has yielded a monstrous 86.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing tight ends: the worst rate in the NFL.

Sean McVay is an excellent game planner with added time he'll work out the kinks on this offense. Matthew Stafford couldn’t get going against the 49ers but faces a softer stop unit from the Giants. New York’s defense looked much better than it truly was in Week 1, due to the offense grinding out gains and chewing up TOP. The Cowboys offense only had two second half possessions and while it was limited in action, Dallas ranked out well in terms of advanced metrics like EPA per play DVOA. This is a fast track indoor at SoFi Stadium and it doesn’t seem likely that L.A.’s offense gets bottled up for a second straight game.