Best NFL Picks Today

This anytime touchdown prop is in play down to -115 because the Eagles surrendered two rushing scores in Week 4, and Tuten’s been a force for the Jaguars. Tuten has an elite 4.02 yards per carry after contact and 109.6 PFF elusive rating while handling 56.3% of the red-zone rushes for Jacksonville, including nine across the past three games.

Play up to 35%. Harold Fannin Jr. leads Cleveland with three touchdowns and has converted all three of his red-zone targets into scores. With a 20% target share and an established role near the goal line, another touchdown is firmly in play.

Playable to 29%.

Mike Gesicki saw an expanded role after Ja'Marr Chase exited Week 4 early due to a concussion, finishing with 5 targets and 40 receiving yards. If Chase is forced to miss this weekend's game, Gesicki is likely to be one of the team's primary options through the air. Even if Chase is on the field, Gesicki is a good bet to find space to operate against a poor defense.

Ashton Jeanty has established himself as the go-to option in the running game for the Las Vegas Raiders with 78 carries in their first four games. Jeanty is also a big part of the passing attack for Las Vegas, where he's picked up two scores and 19 receptions this year. I'm expecting Jeanty to get back in the end zone this week, and I'm backing him to score at up to 47%.

Jones' anytime TD is playable up to 55%. He's now Minnesota's primary back, while New Orleans has allowed an NFL-high nine rushing touchdowns to running backs. His receiving role gives him another path to scoring.

Play up to 50%. C.J. Stroud has cleared this number in three of four games, including 347 yards against Dallas. Houston ranks sixth in passing but 30th in rushing, while Tennessee allowed 285 passing yards last week, supporting another pass-heavy approach.

Fields has been called on for at least 65% of the snaps in every game so far - and he scored his first career TD last weekend. With the Commanders giving up 14 TDs through their first four outings this season, Fields gives the Giants a clear red zone mismatch.

The Steelers have a massive rest and travel advantage this week, so I recommend this moneyline to 62%. Pittsburgh played on Thursday Night Football in Week 4, while Indianapolis is returning from London for this road game. This puts an Indy defense ranking 25th in defensive DVOA in a tough spot. The Colts have the fourth-lowest pressure percentage while also allowing the sixth-highest rushing yards per attempt, after all. As a result, I expect Pittsburgh to move the ball on the ground in horrible weather conditions to dominate the time of possession and keep the Indy offense on the sidelines Sunday afternoon.

The touchdowns are coming for Loveland, and I recommend him to score down to +200 in Week 5. He's coming off his best game of the season (six receptions for 57 yards), which included three red-zone targets, and I also value him hauling in 15 receptions for 197 yards and a score against Green Bay in 2025.

Playable to 52%.

Justin Herbert is going to have to get the ball out of his hand quickly this weekend against Broncos. Fortunately, he has an offensive coordinator in Mike McDaniel who has vast experience designing game plans to protect his quarterback when the team's offensive line isn't healthy.

LaPorta draws a favorable matchup against an Arizona defense allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends. Gibbs and St. Brown should command plenty of attention, leaving LaPorta opportunities against weak coverage over the middle.

Back Wilson to score to -130 because his unrivaled lead role in the Seattle backfield will yield both a high-volume workload and high-value scoring opportunities again this week. In addition to Seattle scoring four rushing touchdowns across its past two meetings with San Fran, Wilson also found the end zone in Week 4 in the go-to role while picking up 3.43 yards after contact per attempt with a solid 100.0 PFF elusive rating.

Backup QBs usually lean on TEs for quick hits and checkdowns and that’s been the case for Huntley during his two stints in Charm City. He threw to his tight ends 16 times over two starts last year and looked to TEs a lot whenever called into action for the Ravens in 2021 and 2022. Andrews boast the fifth highest target share (23.5%) across the position has posted 24, 27, 49 and 49 yards in the opening four games of 2026. His SNF forecasts all sit north of 30 receiving yards with some models pointing to 40 yards from the veteran.

The Bills are 7-1 ATS following a straight-up regular-season loss dating back to October 2024. The biggest news on this spread is the move across the 3, from 2.5 to 3.5, on Thursday afternoon. DJ Moore is very questionable, and Aaron Donald is expected to play, but I'm not sure that's enough to move the number through a key number. That suggests there was likely respected money on the Rams at -2.5. I'll take Josh Allen indoors laying three points or more in any game, in any setting. The Bills covered a 7.5-point spread in a game with five turnovers. They have yet to play their best football, and the Rams haven't been overly impressive through four weeks. They just won 24-20 against an Eagles team that converted zero third downs, while Jalen Hurts threw for just 10 yards in the second half. Allen has covered in each of his last three regular-season games as an underdog dating back to the last two calendar years.