Best NFL Picks Today

Bryce Young threw 11 interceptions last year – the highest tally in his NFL career to date – and Week 1 has been a particular horror show for the Panthers QB. 

He’s tossed two picks in each of his season openers, and it’s tough to ignore a Bears defense that came away with 23 interceptions in 2025.

Henry remains Baltimore’s preferred finisher near the goal line after scoring 16 rushing touchdowns last season, including 10 from inside the 20. With Jackson creating additional stress on Indianapolis’ front seven, Henry should see quality red-zone opportunities and is my favorite touchdown scorer in this matchup.

I'd recommend betting Pitts to score to +325 in Week 1 because he's a matchup nightmare and is coming off a career-high 88 receptions while interestingly playing a career-high 88% of offensive snaps last year. The Steelers also allowed the fourth-most receptions to the position in 2025, including 11 touchdowns, so this is a sneaky matchup because of Pitts’ versatility in the passing attack. He lined up in the slot on 34.7% of his offensive snaps and out wide on another 20.3%. Finally, I also value Falcons head coach Kevin Stefanski leaning on his tight ends for 18 receiving touchdowns across the past two years with the Cleveland Browns.

The Jaguars drafted Nate Boerkircher in the 2nd round this past summer, in part, to take some blocking responsibilities off of Brenton Strange. The idea was to get Strange more involved as a pass-catcher and to preserve his stamina by taking him off of some of the tougher blocking assignments he faced in 1-on-1 situations in 2025. 

Cleveland's top coverage linebacker, Carson Schwesinger, missed the majority of training camp with a shoulder injury. Buffalo's tight ends had their way with Cleveland's defense in a joint practice with Schwesinger off of the field. 

Schwesinger is expected to play in Week 1, but he might not be at full strength. Strange could be the primary beneficiary of any lapses in coverage in the middle of the field.

Baker Mayfield played through injury most of last season and he still ran for +16 yards in 10 games.

Robinson had a team-high 140 target while for the New York Giants over the last two seasons with 185 receptions and seven touchdowns. The Jets had the worst efficiency vs. slot receivers, per FTN's 2026 almanac. 

This prop is in play to -125 because Goff tied for a league-high 80.2 adjusted completion percentage last year, which included a 69.0 completion percentage at Ford Field. He connected for 23 or more passes in five of his eight home games, too. This is also a good matchup. New Orleans ranked eighth in run defense DVOA with the second-lowest rushing success rate allowed while also generating pressure at the eighth-highest clip in the league in 2025. So, with Detroit sending out a reshuffled and new-look offensive line, I expect Goff to attack New Orleans through the air with quick, underneath passes to pile up completions early and often.

The TD markets believe Kincaid is the top TE option in the end zone. He’s coming off a 2025 in which he led all TEs in targets per route run and scored seven total touchdowns over the course of the season. Houston’s defense doesn’t have many cracks but of the 20 total receiving touchdowns it allowed last year, eight of those strikes came from tight ends. Kincaid ranks out better versus man coverage, which the Texans run exclusively, and projections have me taking his 1+ touchdown markets as high as 29%.

The Chargers used a 2025 first-round pick on Hampton and he is getting a larger role this season. The Cardinals gave up the second-most rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs last season. 

Murray has a good idea of the defense he’ll face in Week 1. He played it every day in practice for the past three years. Former Arizona coach Jonathan Gannon is the new defensive coordinator in Green Bay. On top of being able to find Jefferson and Jordan Addison for deep TD connections, Murray’s ability to make plays outside the pocket gives O’Connell a new twist inside the 20-yard line. He has excellent jump ball options in burly WR Jauan Jennings and TE T.J. Hockenson. Projections tick as high as 1.6 TD passes and isn’t here just to hand the ball off. I’d play his 2+ touchdowns as high as 48%.

Miami QB Malik Willis is one of the best running quarterbacks in the NFL, and RB De'Vone Achane is slight and injury-prone, so Willis could get goal-line carries

This is the highest-rated touchdown at this probability, according to Covers' new Anytime Touchdown Value Index. Just another tool to help you sort through the noise, get to your pick a lot quicker, and give you back your time. There isn't a category across the many inputs where Dallas Goedert isn't showing value. I know matching last year's 11 TDs will be tough, but the matchup, scoring environment, red-zone role, role certainty, and relative price are all pointing to a buy in Week 1. He scores an 80 on the CATVI. It could be a better passing offense, with more looks under center for Jalen Hurts, while the loss of A.J. Brown opens up more targets for the tight end.

Dallas and New York went a combined 26-8 to the first-half Over last season, with the Cowboys an absurd 16-1. Dallas led the NFL in first-half scoring while allowing the second most first-half points, averaging 31.9 combined points before halftime. There’s plenty of firepower here to pick up where that scoring frenzy left off vs defenses who could need some time to find their footing. 

I know both quarterbacks are coming back from injuries, but Patrick Mahomes' ligaments worry me, and worry me even more when his backside protection is going to be a second-string undrafted rookie facing off vs. Nik Bonitto and this Denver pass rush. The Chiefs have concerns on the other side of the ball as well. This is a secondary that lost 75% of its starters and a few more depth pieces. It's a brand new group and one that might take some time to execute the system. Denver should even be a little better in its deep passing game with the addition of Jaylen Waddle and the chemistry he is building with Bo Nix. Sorry, Chiefs fans.