NFL Week 3 still offers an advantage to football traders as the markets haven’t matured just yet.
That leaves edges and opportunity on the board – if you know when to strike.
My weekly spotlight on the trades to make now and ones to make later helps you time your NFL Week 3 picks to get the best of the number.
NFL predictions: Week 3 trade now, trade later picks
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick | Trade Now or Trade Later |  |
|---|---|---|
| Jaguars -2.5 | Now | 54% |
| Buccaneers +2.5 | Later | 51% |
| Panthers at Browns Over 41.5 | Now | 49% |
| Seahawks at Commanders Over 40.5 | Later | 47% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Patriots at Jaguars -2.5: Trade Now
The Jacksonville Jaguars blew a 13-6 lead in the fourth quarter at Denver in Week 2 but I’m not discounting them too much for losing in a rough road spot to an elite defense.
The Jags come back to Duval County for what will be their last home game until Week 8 (thanks to UK trip).
The New England Patriots beat up on Pittsburgh 20-3 but needed a defensive touchdown in the fourth quarter to pull away. New England benefitted from horrific QB play from Aaron Rodgers and has dodged quality quarterbacks in the first two weeks, due to Sam Darnold’s Week 1 injury.
Trevor Lawrence is a notable step up in competition (No. 4 in CPOE) and is complemented by a rushing attack rated No. 2 in success rate, keeping the offense out of long third downs.
On the other side of the ball, Jacksonville’s defense is excellent at getting pressure with just the four-man rush, registering the eighth highest pressure rate despite barely blitzing. New England QB Drake Maye is not very fond of that predicament, rating out among the bottom of league when under duress.
I like this home favorite below a field goal in Week 3.
Vikings at Buccaneers +2.5: Trade Later
As you’ve likely seen on social media, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are horrible against the spread.
Sunday’s home loss to Cleveland marked the 11th straight game in which Tampa Bay has come up short ATS, going back to Week 8 of last year. If the 0-2 start didn’t scare off traders, that ATS skunking will.
But in that public perception lies possible value. The Buccaneers opened as 2.5-point home underdogs to the 2-0 Minnesota Vikings and the status of Vikes QB Kyler Murray will dictate where this Week 3 spread goes.
Murray missed Week 2 due to a concussion but was back on the practice field before getting ruled out, which has him trending toward playing Sunday. He was knocked out early into his Minnesota debut in Week 1.
This is shaping up to be the “Blitz Bowl” with Brian Flores and Todd Bowles both notorious for bringing the heat (No. 2 and No. 3 in blitz rate). Murray’s limited work within Kevin O’Connell’s offense could get exposed in those pressure spots.
If you’re not admitted the Bucs’ burn unit yet, wait this out and see if the spread goes to a field goal or higher when Murray’s health is updated.
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Panthers at Browns Over 41.5: Trade Now
The Cleveland Browns stunned Tampa Bay and blew up a bunch of survivor pools on Sunday, behind an offensive attack that finished No. 6 in EPA per dropback in Week 2.
Deshaun Watson had his best game in a long time despite the Bucs bringing the heat, picking up 7.0 yards per pass. Now, can you bring yourself to trust Watson for a second straight week?
The Browns finally come home after starting the season with two roadies in Florida, welcoming a Carolina Panthers team leaning into the pass. Carolina has thrown on 64% of dropbacks after a shootout with Chicago and a squash of Atlanta to kick off 2026.
Quarterback Bryce Young is thriving with offensive coordinator Brad Idzik calling plays. He’s Top 10 in all the fancy passing stats, including air yards. FYI: both teams have given up plays over the top, sitting sixth and seventh in most air yards allowed.
The Panthers defense looks tougher than it truly is after fattening up on the Falcons’ backup QBs in Week 2. Carolina still got gashed for 157 rushing yards from Atlanta, despite focusing its energy on stuffing the run.
This total has jumped from an opener of 40.5 (which is still available if you shop) to 41.5 and won’t take much action to trend toward the key number of 43 O/U, especially with 42 showing up more in recent years.
Seahawks at Commanders Over 40.5: Trade Later
We’ll get a battle of backup quarterbacks when the Seattle Seahawks show up in the nation’s capital in Week 3.
Sam Darnold is out with a hip injury, leaving Drew Lock as the starter for the Seahawks. The Washington Commanders are likely trotting out backup Marcus Mariota after QB1 Jayden Daniels injured his elbow in a Week 2 loss.
These injuries have knocked down this number from a preseason look-ahead total of 46.5 to an opener of 40.5, which has already slimmed to sub-40 at some shops on Monday morning.
This is an Over/Under to watch this week, measuring the overreaction to the QB situations. There could be value to buy back the Over, should it slump short of 38.5 points.
Lock will be playing his third game for Seattle with another week of first-team reps. He looked comfortable in Sunday’s win over Arizona, rating out Top 7 in many advanced passer metrics, including EPA per dropback and CPOE.
Mariota may be long in the tooth but he’s a capable backup with a ton of experience, especially considering Daniels’ injury woes in 2025. The veteran passer threw for 111 yards and a TD in the second half versus Dallas on Sunday, basically mirroring Daniels 1H output.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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