The Indianapolis defense can't seem to stop a nosebleed right now, so I'm riding with C.J. Stroud and Houston in my Texans vs. Colts predictions.
In a matchup between a pair of 0-2 teams, I'm giving the Texans the benefit of the doubt - expect fireworks against a struggling team searching for answers.
Dive into my NFL picks for Week 3, and let's continue building that bankroll.
Texans vs Colts predictions
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Early Texans vs. Colts spread pick: Texans -2.5
The Houston Texans defense has faced two of the most potent offenses in football, the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals, and still comes out on top in virtually every statistical category against the Indianapolis Colts.
The Colts have major issues, allowing 514 total yards per game - the most in the NFL by almost 60 yards. That coincides with allowing 37 points per game, also the worst mark in the league.
They'll be going up against an offense that ranks in the top 10 in yards per game, which is good enough for me to get behind C.J. Stroud and the Texans, even if Nico Collins misses another game. I'm expecting David Montgomery to run all over Indy, which is allowing 5.4 yards per carry through two weeks of the season.
Comfortably fade the Colts and play this up to 58%.
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Early Texans vs Colts total pick: Over 43.5 points
We have two teams that have hit the Over in three of four games this year, leading me to believe that this number is far too low.
The Colts' defense is simply the worst in football so far, giving up a total of eight touchdowns through two weeks. Most of these are due to a struggling red-zone unit, which is coughing up a score 67% of the time.
So what's been working for Indy? Undeniably, its offense, which is scoring at an 84% clip once they get inside the 20. While yes, the Colts are going up against one of the better defensive units in football, Houston has still allowed over 350 yards of total offense in the early parts of 2026. What does this all add up to? An Over.
Play this up to 55%.
Texans vs Colts odds
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Texans vs Colts spread: Texans -2.5
- Texans vs Colts moneyline: Texans 57%, Colts 43%
- Texans vs Colts Over/Under: 43.5
How to watch Texans vs Colts
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 27, 2026, 1 p.m. ET
- City: Indianapolis, IN
- Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
- TV: CBS
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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