Best NFL Picks Today

These offenses scored a combined 67 points in Week 1 and I don't expect the scoring to slow down. Buffalo averaged a ridiculous 7.9 yards per play against an elite Houston D, while Detroit's offense took their foot off the gas after going up 21-0 halfway through the third quarter. Both defenses showed red flags to open the season. Expect an offensive showcase for Buffalo’s stadium opener, with Detroit having the firepower to go shot for shot. Their most recent meeting in 2024 produced 90 points.
 
 
 
 

An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Titans being a giant -7-point underdog in this game.. The predictive model expects the Tennessee Titans as the 6th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 59.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is expected by the projections to see 130.1 offensive plays run: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.. Tony Pollard has run a route on 46.1% of his offense's passing plays last year, putting him in the 78th percentile when it comes to running backs.. The Eagles pass defense has not been good when opposing running backs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 0.00 yards-after-the-catch last year: the most in the league.

The Steelers are built for Unders, and the Patriots lack game-breaking talent on offense with wide receiver A.J. Brown (ankle) out and running back TreVeyon Henderson (ankle) still nursing an injury. Pittsburgh quarterback Aaron Rodgers completed just 60% of his passes for a pedestrian 5.6 yards per attempt in Week 1, and New England QB Drake Maye’s 5.4 YPA and 6.5 aDoT in the season opener don’t jump off the page, either. The Steelers also allowed the fourth-lowest EPA per play, with the Pats surrendering the seventh lowest ahead of Monday Night Football, so we’re landing a fair number on this Under given the lack of offensive explosiveness going against this pair of stout stop units.

While Wentz was serviceable, I see more than two points separating him and Murry in terms of value to the spread. That’s especially true if the Bears can break away on the scoreboard and force Wentz to carry the load. Minnesota’s defense is dangerous but gave up a ton of yards to the Packers. If we take the Cheeseheads’ fourth-quarter collapse out of the equation, the Vikes stop unit was 21st in EPA allowed per play in the first three quarters. Murray’s chances of clearing concussion protocols seems slim when you look at his reaction to the hit. Once he’s officially ruled out, this spread jumps to Bears -6 or higher. Give me Chicago below the key number now.

The New York Jets averaged just 17.6 ppg last year and while Geno Smith is an upgrade at quarterback, I'm unconvinced that he's going to improve the situation all that much at age 35. Meanwhile, the Jets defense will get pressure on a one-dimensional Green Bay Packers offense that totaled just 66 yards on the ground against the Vikings. I'm backing the Under down to 42.5 points.

The New Orleans Saints looked dead in the water for the first 30 minutes of the 2026 season. They were 27th in EPA per play in the first half versus Detroit on Sunday before the Lions took their foot off the gas and found themselves in an overtime squeaker. New Orleans’ output looks better than it was, scoring six points in the extra frame (before missing the 2-point convert). The Baltimore Ravens hung 41 points on Indianapolis in Week 1 but took a hit in the receiving corps, losing Zay Flowers and Ja'Kobi Lane to injury. This group was already thin and could have Baltimore’s offense short and simple in Week 2. The Ravens ran at the second highest rate in the opener (58%), mainly due to protecting a big lead in the second half. But they could be forced into similar handoffs with the passing game missing pieces.

The Bengals got four takeaways and still had to sweat out the Bucs in Week 1. Houston's defense bounces back and that offense is improved and always strong at home. The Texans were 9 for 18 on 3rd/4th down conversions and went 4/5 for TDs in the red zone. Cincy finished 2/5 in RZ and needed a defensive score and four FGM (two 50+ yarders) to get to 33 points, despite those extra possesions.

This game's spread indicates an extreme rushing game script for the Buccaneers, who are a massive favorite by 8.5 points.. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to run on 49.5% of their downs: the 3rd-highest frequency on the slate this week.. The 9th-highest number of plays in the league have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year (a massive 58.9 per game on average).. Baker Mayfield grades out as one of the top QBs in the league at picking up extra running yardage, averaging an outstanding 2.88 yards-after-contact last year while grading out in the 95th percentile.

Our trusted projections expect the Chargers to be the 8th-most pass-centric team in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 58.4% red zone pass rate.. The 4th-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Los Angeles Chargers last year (a colossal 60.2 per game on average).. The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

The projections expect the Dolphins to be the 3rd-most run-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 41.8% run rate.. Our trusted projections expect De'Von Achane to accrue 13.6 rush attempts this week, on balance, placing him in the 90th percentile among RBs.. De'Von Achane has received 62.9% of his team's rushing play calls last year, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among RBs.. De'Von Achane has grinded out 68.0 adjusted rushing yards per game last year, one of the biggest figures in the league among running backs (96th percentile).. With an impressive tally of 5.16 adjusted yards per carry (90th percentile), De'Von Achane stands among the best pure rushers in the NFL last year.

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 58.9% of their plays: the 10th-greatest rate on the slate this week.. At the present time, the 7th-most pass-centric offense in football near the end zone (59.5% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Cowboys.. The model projects this game to see the highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The 2nd-highest number of plays in the league have been run by the Cowboys last year (a massive 60.6 per game on average).. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop-off.

Sean McVay is an excellent game planner with added time he'll work out the kinks on this offense. Matthew Stafford couldn’t get going against the 49ers but faces a softer stop unit from the Giants. New York’s defense looked much better than it truly was in Week 1, due to the offense grinding out gains and chewing up TOP. The Cowboys offense only had two second half possessions and while it was limited in action, Dallas ranked out well in terms of advanced metrics like EPA per play DVOA. This is a fast track indoor at SoFi Stadium and it doesn’t seem likely that L.A.’s offense gets bottled up for a second straight game.