Saints @ Falcons Picks & Props

The New Orleans Saints might be eliminated from the playoffs but young players like Audric Estime will be heavily motivated to prove themselves and earn a larger role moving forward. With Alvin Kamara and Kendre Miller sidelined by injuries, Estime made his first career start last week and rushed for 94 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries. He'll be given another opportunity to carry the load on Sunday against a Falcons squad that can't stop the run. Atlanta is 26th in the league in defensive rush EPA and rushing yards allowed per game (127.4). 

At age 37, Cousins has shown over the last few weeks that there’s still a little left in the tank. Whether Sunday is his last game as a Falcon or not, look for him to finish the season with a bang.

Cousins found a rhythm in the Week 15 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, with 373 passing yards and three touchdowns, and threw for two more scores 10 days later against the Arizona Cardinals. With Drake London and Kyle Pitts both listed as questionable but expected to play, I’ll take these plus odds for 2+ TD passes from Cousins this weekend. 

Slough has been letting it fly in the home stretch of the season and makes one last push for the Offensive Rookie of the Year. This game doesn’t mean much to NOLA, so I could see the Saints dropping back a lot more. Slough has had success against some bad passing defenses, taking on the Titans, Jets, Panthers, Tampa, and Miami but Atlanta is a dangerous D. The Falcons play a high rate of zone, blitz like mad, and have the sixth most INTs in the league – one of which was off the Saints rookie QB back in late November. Shough gets caught forcing it. 

The rookie is pushing for OROY honors, and even in a lost season, that storyline gives Kellen Moore’s offense plenty of momentum heading into Week 18. Chris Olave will be out, but Tyler Shough should have volume on his side and a favorable matchup against an Atlanta defense on a short week. Shough has thrown 209 passes over his last six games, with 124 attempts in three indoor contests, and is averaging over 300 yards per game in that span. The last three QBs to face Atlanta combined for seven TDs and nearly 1,000 yards. As the current betting favorite for OROY, Shough should get every opportunity, and the play-calling will likely reflect that.

Tyler Shough is in the Rookie of the Year conversation and could be asked to throw more than usual on Sunday. Chris Olave is out with a blood clot, Mason Tipton missed last week and is questionable, which leaves Kevin Austin and Dante Pettis to lead the pass catchers. With New Orleans still shorthanded at running back and leaning into the passing game, the volume should remain there. It's not a big name, but opportunity and price are certainly here. The last three QBs to play in Atlanta have totaled seven TDs and almost 1,000 yards.

The Saints have won four in a row while the 7-9 Falcons are on a short week after playing on Monday night. The Falcons are 23rd in the league in defensive success rate, while the offense has been one-dimensional with Kirk Cousins throwing for fewer than 200 yards in five of seven starts. The Saints are ninth in defensive success rate, while Tyler Shough has been getting better every week and could earn the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award with another strong performance. The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings between these NFC South rivals, so give me the points with New Orleans.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is projected by the projections to have 137.5 total plays run: the highest number on the slate this week.. The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.. Kyle Pitts has gone out for fewer passes this year (91.5% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last year (75.7%).. In this contest, Kyle Pitts is anticipated by the model to position himself in the 98th percentile among TEs with 8.3 targets.. Kyle Pitts's pass-catching performance been refined this year, totaling 4.5 adjusted catches vs just 2.7 last year.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is projected by the projections to have 137.5 total plays run: the highest number on the slate this week.. The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.. The leading projections forecast Kirk Cousins to attempt 35.7 passes this week, on average: the 7th-most among all quarterbacks.. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the Falcons profiles as the 6th-best in the league this year.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is projected by the projections to have 137.5 total plays run: the highest number on the slate this week.. The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.. The leading projections forecast Kirk Cousins to attempt 35.7 passes this week, on average: the 7th-most among all quarterbacks.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is projected by the projections to have 137.5 total plays run: the highest number on the slate this week.. The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.. The leading projections forecast Kirk Cousins to attempt 35.7 passes this week, on average: the 7th-most among all quarterbacks.. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the Falcons profiles as the 6th-best in the league this year.

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Falcons, totaling the 10th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 31.9 per game) this year.. This year, the tough Falcons defense has conceded a mere 210.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing QBs: the 8th-fewest in football.. Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 6th-lowest clip in the league against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year (67.0% Adjusted Completion%).

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Falcons, totaling the 10th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 31.9 per game) this year.. Atlanta's defense ranks as the 5th-best in the league this year when it comes to generating interceptions, averaging 0.93 per game.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is projected by the projections to have 137.5 total plays run: the highest number on the slate this week.. The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.. The predictive model expects Drake London to accrue 9.6 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 97th percentile among WRs.. Drake London has been a key part of his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of 30.2% this year, which ranks in the 96th percentile when it comes to wideouts.. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the Falcons profiles as the 6th-best in the league this year.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is projected by the projections to have 137.5 total plays run: the highest number on the slate this week.. The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.. Kyle Pitts has gone out for fewer passes this year (91.5% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last year (75.7%).. In this contest, Kyle Pitts is anticipated by the model to position himself in the 98th percentile among TEs with 8.3 targets.. After totaling 36.0 air yards per game last season, Kyle Pitts has produced significantly more this season, currently averaging 51.0 per game.

Our trusted projections expect the Saints offensive strategy to skew 1.1% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context) with head coach Kellen Moore now calling the plays.. At a -3-point disadvantage, the Saints are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of an emphasis on passing than their typical approach.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by our trusted projection set to see 137.5 offensive plays run: the most among all games this week.. The New Orleans Saints have called the 10th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a staggering 59.2 plays per game.. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may go down.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by our trusted projection set to see 137.5 offensive plays run: the most among all games this week.. The New Orleans Saints have called the 10th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a staggering 59.2 plays per game.. This year, the weak Falcons run defense has been torched for a monstrous 128.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing teams: the 10th-most in football.. The Atlanta Falcons defensive tackles profile as the worst DT corps in football this year in regard to run defense.