Dolphins @ Patriots Picks & Props

The New England Patriots have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 4.4% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context). In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack statistics), the O-line of the Patriots grades out as the 6th-best in the league this year. This year, the poor Dolphins pass defense has given up a staggering 88.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the 2nd-highest rate in football. As it relates to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, Miami's collection of LBs has been phenomenal this year, profiling as the 6th-best in the NFL.

The Dolphins are a heavy 11.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script. In regards to air yards, De'Von Achane ranks in the lofty 92nd percentile among running backs this year, accruing a remarkable 3.0 per game. (due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more noteworthy than it sounds since most RBs have negative air yards). De'Von Achane's 32.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 22.4. De'Von Achane grades out in the 92nd percentile among RBs when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging an excellent 0.22 per game. This year, the formidable New England Patriots run defense has surrendered a measly 0.69 rushing TDs per game to the opposing side: the 4th-smallest rate in the NFL.