Buccaneers @ Dolphins Picks & Props

A passing game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a -6-point underdog this week. The Buccaneers defense has given up the 6th-most passing TDs in football: 1.73 per game this year. When it comes to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Tampa Bay's collection of LBs has been atrocious this year, profiling as the 4th-worst in the NFL.

The Dolphins pass defense has been torched for the highest Adjusted Completion% in football (90.2%) vs. running backs this year (90.2%). The Miami Dolphins defense has allowed the 10th-most touchdowns through the air in football to RBs: 0.20 per game this year. As it relates to the linebackers' role in defending against the run, Miami's collection of LBs has been outstanding this year, grading out as the 6th-best in football.

A passing game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a -6-point underdog this week. With an extraordinary 22.0% Red Zone Target Rate (88th percentile) this year, Jaylen Waddle rates among the wideouts with the most usage near the goal line in the league. Jaylen Waddle has accrued far more air yards this year (84.0 per game) than he did last year (56.0 per game). Jaylen Waddle's 66.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 43.8. With a fantastic rate of 0.35 per game through the air (82nd percentile), Jaylen Waddle rates as one of the top receiving TD-scorers in football when it comes to wideouts this year.

A passing game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a -6-point underdog this week. As it relates to air yards, Darren Waller ranks in the towering 95th percentile among TEs this year, totaling a whopping 46.0 per game. Darren Waller ranks in the 92nd percentile among TE WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive volume) with a massive 39.2 figure this year. Darren Waller ranks in the 100th percentile among TEs as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging an outstanding 0.75 per game. This year, the weak Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has been gouged for a massive 78.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the 7th-biggest rate in football.

With a high 27.6% Red Zone Target% (97th percentile) this year, Mike Evans ranks among the WRs with the most usage near the goal line in the league. After averaging 99.0 air yards per game last season, Mike Evans has produced significantly more this season, currently averaging 114.0 per game. Mike Evans's 65.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive volume) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 93rd percentile for WRs. Opposing offenses have completed passes at the highest level in the league against the Miami Dolphins defense this year (75.1% Adjusted Completion%). The Miami Dolphins defense has been gouged for the 7th-most receiving TDs in the league to wideouts: 1.00 per game this year.

A passing game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a -6-point underdog this week. With a remarkable 19.2% Red Zone Target% (97th percentile) this year, De'Von Achane ranks as one of the pass-catching running backs with the highest volume near the end zone in football. De'Von Achane has notched a whopping 4.0 air yards per game this year: 94th percentile among RBs. (That may not seem like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage). De'Von Achane's 33.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive volume) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 22.4. With a stellar ratio of 0.24 per game through the air (93rd percentile), De'Von Achane rates among the top receiving touchdown-scorers in football among running backs this year.

Opposing offenses have completed passes at the highest level in the league against the Miami Dolphins defense this year (75.1% Adjusted Completion%). The Miami Dolphins defense has allowed the 6th-most receiving touchdowns in the NFL to tight ends: 0.53 per game this year. As it relates to the linebackers' role in defending against the run, Miami's collection of LBs has been outstanding this year, grading out as the 6th-best in football.

Baker Mayfield is not a mobile quarterback and has accounted for a lowly 0.0% of his team's rushing play calls near the goal line this year, placing him in the 2nd percentile among quarterbacks. Opposing offenses have completed passes at the highest level in the league against the Miami Dolphins defense this year (75.1% Adjusted Completion%). The Miami Dolphins defense has been torched for the 6th-most TDs through the air in the NFL: 1.73 per game this year. As it relates to the linebackers' role in defending against the run, Miami's collection of LBs has been outstanding this year, grading out as the 6th-best in football.