Buccaneers @ Dolphins Picks & Props

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A passing game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a -5.5-point underdog this week.. The Buccaneers defense has given up the 6th-most passing TDs in football: 1.73 per game this year.. When it comes to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Tampa Bay's collection of LBs has been atrocious this year, profiling as the 4th-worst in the NFL.

The Dolphins pass defense has been torched for the highest Adjusted Completion% in football (90.2%) vs. running backs this year (90.2%).. The Miami Dolphins defense has allowed the 10th-most touchdowns through the air in football to RBs: 0.20 per game this year.. As it relates to the linebackers' role in defending against the run, Miami's collection of LBs has been outstanding this year, grading out as the 6th-best in football.

A passing game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a -4.5-point underdog this week.. With an extraordinary 22.0% Red Zone Target Rate (88th percentile) this year, Jaylen Waddle rates among the wideouts with the most usage near the goal line in the league.. Jaylen Waddle has accrued far more air yards this year (84.0 per game) than he did last year (56.0 per game).. Jaylen Waddle's 66.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 43.8.. With a fantastic rate of 0.35 per game through the air (82nd percentile), Jaylen Waddle rates as one of the top receiving TD-scorers in football when it comes to wideouts this year.

A passing game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a -4.5-point underdog this week.. With a remarkable 19.2% Red Zone Target% (97th percentile) this year, De'Von Achane ranks as one of the pass-catching running backs with the highest volume near the end zone in football.. De'Von Achane has notched a whopping 4.0 air yards per game this year: 94th percentile among RBs. (That may not seem like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage).. De'Von Achane's 33.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive volume) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 22.4.. With a stellar ratio of 0.24 per game through the air (93rd percentile), De'Von Achane rates among the top receiving touchdown-scorers in football among running backs this year.

With a high 27.6% Red Zone Target% (97th percentile) this year, Mike Evans ranks among the WRs with the most usage near the goal line in the league.. After averaging 99.0 air yards per game last season, Mike Evans has produced significantly more this season, currently averaging 114.0 per game.. Mike Evans's 65.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive volume) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 93rd percentile for WRs.. Opposing offenses have completed passes at the highest level in the league against the Miami Dolphins defense this year (75.1% Adjusted Completion%).. The Miami Dolphins defense has been gouged for the 7th-most receiving TDs in the league to wideouts: 1.00 per game this year.

A passing game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a -6-point underdog this week.. As it relates to air yards, Darren Waller ranks in the towering 95th percentile among TEs this year, totaling a whopping 46.0 per game.. Darren Waller ranks in the 92nd percentile among TE WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive volume) with a massive 39.2 figure this year.. Darren Waller ranks in the 100th percentile among TEs as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging an outstanding 0.75 per game.. This year, the weak Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has been gouged for a massive 78.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the 7th-biggest rate in football.

Opposing offenses have completed passes at the highest level in the league against the Miami Dolphins defense this year (75.1% Adjusted Completion%).. The Miami Dolphins defense has allowed the 6th-most receiving touchdowns in the NFL to tight ends: 0.53 per game this year.. As it relates to the linebackers' role in defending against the run, Miami's collection of LBs has been outstanding this year, grading out as the 6th-best in football.

Baker Mayfield is not a mobile quarterback and has accounted for a lowly 0.0% of his team's rushing play calls near the goal line this year, placing him in the 2nd percentile among quarterbacks.. Opposing offenses have completed passes at the highest level in the league against the Miami Dolphins defense this year (75.1% Adjusted Completion%).. The Miami Dolphins defense has been torched for the 6th-most TDs through the air in the NFL: 1.73 per game this year.. As it relates to the linebackers' role in defending against the run, Miami's collection of LBs has been outstanding this year, grading out as the 6th-best in football.

The Buccaneers are a 5.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a running game script.. The leading projections forecast the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 8th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 54.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect the Buccaneers to call the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.1 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game against the Dolphins defense this year: 8th-fewest in football.. Cade Otton's 3.2 adjusted receptions per game this season represents a noteable decrease in his receiving talent over last season's 4.2 rate.

The leading projections forecast the Dolphins as the 8th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 54.3% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 124.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The Dolphins have run the fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 51.9 plays per game.. The Miami O-line grades out as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

A passing game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a -4.5-point underdog this week.. De'Von Achane's 73.5% Route Participation% this year represents a significant boost in his passing attack volume over last year's 61.2% rate.. In this contest, De'Von Achane is predicted by the projections to finish in the 95th percentile among running backs with 5.7 targets.. With a fantastic 3.7 adjusted catches per game (96th percentile) this year, De'Von Achane places among the top RBs in the pass game in the league.. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has been gouged for the 2nd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (90%) versus RBs this year (90.0%).

The Buccaneers are a 4.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a running game script.. The leading projections forecast the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 9th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 54.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect the Buccaneers to call the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 61.8 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game against the Dolphins defense this year: 8th-fewest in football.. The Miami Dolphins safeties project as the 10th-best group of safeties in football this year in pass coverage.

A passing game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a -4.5-point underdog this week.. The predictive model expects Jaylen Waddle to total 8.2 targets in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 91st percentile when it comes to wide receivers.. Jaylen Waddle's 66.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 43.8.. With a fantastic 3.7 adjusted receptions per game (82nd percentile) this year, Jaylen Waddle places among the top WRs in the league in the league.. When it comes to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Tampa Bay's collection of LBs has been atrocious this year, profiling as the 4th-worst in the NFL.

In this contest, Mike Evans is forecasted by our trusted projection set to finish in the 89th percentile among WRs with 8.0 targets.. The Dolphins pass defense has given up the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (67.5%) to wideouts this year (67.5%).

The Buccaneers are a 5.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a running game script.. The leading projections forecast the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 8th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 54.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect the Buccaneers to call the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.1 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game against the Dolphins defense this year: 8th-fewest in football.. Baker Mayfield's 62.0% Adjusted Completion% this year conveys a material reduction in his passing accuracy over last year's 71.1% figure.

The leading projections forecast the Dolphins as the 8th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 54.3% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. At the moment, the 10th-least pass-heavy team in the league near the goal line (53.0% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Miami Dolphins.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 124.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The Dolphins have run the fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 51.9 plays per game.. The Miami O-line grades out as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

A passing game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a -5.5-point underdog this week.. When it comes to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Tampa Bay's collection of LBs has been atrocious this year, profiling as the 4th-worst in the NFL.

The Buccaneers are a 5.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a running game script.. The leading projections forecast the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 8th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 54.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect the Buccaneers to call the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.1 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game against the Dolphins defense this year: 8th-fewest in football.. Baker Mayfield's 62.0% Adjusted Completion% this year conveys a material reduction in his passing accuracy over last year's 71.1% figure.

The Buccaneers are a 5.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a running game script.. The leading projections forecast the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 8th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 54.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect the Buccaneers to call the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.1 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. In this contest, Baker Mayfield is projected by the predictive model to total the 5th-fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 31.6. . Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game against the Dolphins defense this year: 8th-fewest in football.

The leading projections forecast the Dolphins as the 9th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 54.9% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 124.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The Dolphins have run the fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 51.9 plays per game.

The leading projections forecast the Dolphins as the 8th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 54.3% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 124.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The Dolphins have run the fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 51.9 plays per game.. The Miami O-line grades out as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

The Buccaneers are a 4.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a running game script.. The leading projections forecast the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 9th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 54.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect the Buccaneers to call the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 61.8 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game against the Dolphins defense this year: 8th-fewest in football.. Baker Mayfield's 187.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season represents an impressive decrease in his throwing proficiency over last season's 274.0 rate.

The Buccaneers are a 6-point favorite this week, likely leading to a running game script.. The leading projections forecast the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 8th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 54.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect the Buccaneers to call the 2nd-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.3 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. In this contest, Baker Mayfield is projected by the predictive model to total the 8th-fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 31.8. . Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game against the Dolphins defense this year: 8th-fewest in football.

A passing game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a -4.5-point underdog this week.. When it comes to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Tampa Bay's collection of LBs has been atrocious this year, profiling as the 4th-worst in the NFL.

A passing game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a -5.5-point underdog this week.. This week, Darren Waller is expected by the projections to find himself in the 78th percentile when it comes to TEs with 4.8 targets.. As it relates to air yards, Darren Waller ranks in the towering 95th percentile among TEs this year, totaling a whopping 46.0 per game.. Darren Waller ranks in the 92nd percentile among TE WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive volume) with a massive 39.2 figure this year.. This year, the weak Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has been gouged for a massive 78.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the 7th-biggest rate in football.

This year, the porous Miami Dolphins defense has been gouged for a massive 39.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing RBs: the 7th-worst in football.. The Dolphins pass defense has been torched for the highest Adjusted Completion% in football (90.2%) vs. running backs this year (90.2%).

The Miami Dolphins defense has surrendered the 5th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (65.0) vs. tight ends this year.. The Miami Dolphins pass defense has surrendered the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (78.8%) to TEs this year (78.8%).

A passing game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a -5.5-point underdog this week.. De'Von Achane's 73.5% Route Participation% this year represents a significant boost in his passing attack volume over last year's 61.2% rate.. In this contest, De'Von Achane is predicted by the projections to finish in the 95th percentile among running backs with 5.8 targets.. De'Von Achane has notched a whopping 4.0 air yards per game this year: 94th percentile among RBs. (That may not seem like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage).. The Buccaneers defense has yielded the most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (47.0) versus running backs this year.

In this contest, Mike Evans is forecasted by our trusted projection set to finish in the 89th percentile among WRs with 8.0 targets.. After averaging 99.0 air yards per game last season, Mike Evans has produced significantly more this season, currently averaging 114.0 per game.. The Dolphins pass defense has given up the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (67.5%) to wideouts this year (67.5%).

A passing game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a -5.5-point underdog this week.. The predictive model expects Jaylen Waddle to total 8.2 targets in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 91st percentile when it comes to wide receivers.. Jaylen Waddle has accrued far more air yards this year (84.0 per game) than he did last year (56.0 per game).. Jaylen Waddle's 66.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 43.8.. With a terrific 53.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (88th percentile) this year, Jaylen Waddle places among the top WRs in the league in the league.

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Miami Dolphins to run on 45.7% of their opportunities: the 9th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.

At the present time, the 4th-most run-heavy team in the NFL (44.4% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Dolphins.

At the present time, the 4th-most run-heavy team in the NFL (44.4% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Dolphins.. Our trusted projections expect De'Von Achane to earn 16.6 carries this week, on average, ranking him in the 88th percentile when it comes to RBs.. De'Von Achane has been a more integral piece of his team's run game this season (62.8% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (46.4%).. De'Von Achane has rushed for a lot more adjusted yards per game (68.0) this year than he did last year (50.0).. De'Von Achane's running efficiency has gotten a boost this season, compiling 5.26 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a measly 4.20 mark last season.

The projections expect the Buccaneers to call the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.1 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. In this contest, Baker Mayfield is expected by our trusted projection set to earn the 9th-fewest rush attempts among all quarterbacks with 3.1. . As it relates to the linebackers' role in defending against the run, Miami's collection of LBs has been outstanding this year, grading out as the 6th-best in football.

The Buccaneers are a 5.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a running game script.. The projections expect the Buccaneers to be the 9th-most run-focused offense among all teams this week with a 45.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. This year, the weak Dolphins run defense has yielded a staggering 134.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing teams: the 7th-most in the league.

The Buccaneers are a 5.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a running game script.. The projections expect the Buccaneers to be the 9th-most run-focused offense among all teams this week with a 45.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. Baker Mayfield's rushing effectiveness has improved this year, compiling 7.50 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a mere 6.54 rate last year.. Baker Mayfield rates as one of the leading QBs in the league at picking up extra running yardage, averaging a remarkable 2.87 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 95th percentile.. This year, the weak Dolphins run defense has yielded a staggering 134.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing teams: the 7th-most in the league.

The projections expect the Buccaneers to call the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.1 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. As it relates to the linebackers' role in defending against the run, Miami's collection of LBs has been outstanding this year, grading out as the 6th-best in football.