Bengals @ Dolphins Picks & Props

Mike McDaniel might be on the hot seat, but there’s no doubting that he’s a smart offensive mind and should be able to dial up enough plays to get Ewers looking reasonable, especially with the Dolphins leaning on De’Von Achane. On the other sideline, you have a Bengals offense that is simply far, far better when Joe Burrow is under center. Last week felt like a real low for Burrow and one of his worst performances, but he has the belief and confidence to bounce back, and should do so against a bottom-half-of-the-league defense.

With the Dolphins starting a seventh-round rookie at quarterback expect them to lean on their rushing attack against a piss-poor Bengals run defense. Achane is coming off a quiet 60-yard performance. However, he had rushed for 90+ yards in his previous four games, averaging 130.0 rushing yards per game over that span. The Bengals are 30th in the league in defensive rush EPA and allow a league-high 157.9 rushing yards per game. Even if they sell out to stop the run, they might not be able to slow down Achane. They allow 5.0 yards per attempt when defending with a stacked box and Achane averages 5.8 ypa when running against a stacked box.

There’s always appeal in rookie quarterbacks leaning on tight ends with shorter aDOTs. Darren Waller has been strong lately, but he was limited early in the week and his touchdown price has been bet down after a two-score performance last game. That pushes me toward the TE2, Greg Dulcich. Dulcich has caught all seven of his targets for 111 yards in the three games since the bye, even within a run-heavy, low-aggression offense. Since Week 9, he has 20 targets, six more than Waller due to injuries and one more than WR2 Malik Washington. That volume ranks around 30th among tight ends over that span. He may not be a household name, but he’s involved, the matchup sets up well, and if this offense opens things up a bit, +450 is a price worth taking.

Whether there’s a QB change or not, Achane is getting the rock against the Bengals. Miami gets to come back to sunny Florida after a bad effort in the cold at Pittsburgh Monday. Achane ran just 12 times for 60 yards, with the Fins having to go pass heavy playing from behind. And that’s just not what Miami wants. This Dolphins attack has been the most run-centric offense in the second half of the season and takes on the Bengals brutal run stop. Cincy sits at the bottom of most run stop measurements and has allowed the second most runs of 20 yards or more on the season. Achane had gone Over 80 yards in four straight before MNF.  

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 62.2% of their plays: the 5th-highest rate among all teams this week.. The model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-oriented team in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 65.0% red zone pass rate.. Chase Brown has accumulated a monstrous 4.0 air yards per game this year: 94th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like very many, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage).. Chase Brown's 23.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 17.9.. With an exceptional rate of 0.13 per game through the air (85th percentile), Chase Brown stands as one of the leading receiving touchdown-scorers in the league among RBs this year.

This year, the porous Cincinnati Bengals defense has been torched for a massive 72.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 9th-worst rate in the NFL.. The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers project as the 2nd-worst collection of LBs in the league this year in defending receivers.

Opposing offenses have thrown for the 4th-most adjusted yards in football (260.0 per game) vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year.. The Bengals pass defense has displayed bad efficiency this year, conceding 8.86 adjusted yards-per-target: the 2nd-most in the league.. The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers project as the 2nd-worst collection of LBs in the league this year in defending receivers.

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 62.2% of their plays: the 5th-highest rate among all teams this week.. The model projects Joe Burrow to attempt 36.0 passes in this week's game, on average: the 10th-most out of all QBs.. Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 3rd-highest clip in the NFL against the Dolphins defense this year (74.6% Adjusted Completion%).. The Dolphins defensive ends grade out as the worst collection of DEs in the NFL this year with their pass rush.

The Dolphins have been the 6th-least pass-centric offense in the league (in a neutral context) this year with a 56.9% pass rate.. Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Miami Dolphins are anticipated by the predictive model to call just 61.4 plays on offense in this game: the fewest among all teams this week.. The Miami Dolphins have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 48.6 plays per game.. Our trusted projections expect Tua Tagovailoa to throw 33.0 passes this week, on balance: the 11th-fewest among all QBs.. Cincinnati's defense profiles as the 6th-best in football this year as it relates to generating interceptions, averaging 0.88 per game.

A running game script is implied by the Bengals being a 4-point favorite in this week's game.. The projections expect this game to see the smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 122.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Opposing offenses have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game versus the Dolphins defense this year: 5th-fewest in the NFL.. The Cincinnati O-line profiles as the 6th-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful influence on all air attack stats across the board.

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 62.2% of their plays: the 5th-highest rate among all teams this week.. The model projects Chase Brown to total 5.4 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 94th percentile when it comes to running backs.. Chase Brown has accumulated a monstrous 4.0 air yards per game this year: 94th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like very many, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage).. Chase Brown's 23.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 17.9.. With a terrific 23.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (94th percentile) this year, Chase Brown ranks as one of the best pass-catching running backs in the league.

This week's line implies a throwing game script for the Dolphins, who are -4-point underdogs.. Darren Waller has accumulated a massive 45.0 air yards per game this year: 95th percentile when it comes to tight ends.. Darren Waller slots into the 90th percentile when it comes to TE WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive volume) with a superb 37.6 mark this year.. With an excellent 37.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (81st percentile) this year, Darren Waller has been among the top pass-game TEs in the NFL.. The Bengals defense has conceded the most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (92.0) versus tight ends this year.

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 62.2% of their plays: the 5th-highest rate among all teams this week.. The predictive model expects Ja'Marr Chase to garner 11.5 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 99th percentile when it comes to wideouts.. Ja'Marr Chase's 33.1% Target% this year signifies an impressive growth in his passing game workload over last year's 27.9% figure.. After accruing 90.0 air yards per game last season, Ja'Marr Chase has posted big gains this season, currently boasting 108.0 per game.. The Dolphins pass defense has surrendered the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (66.9%) vs. WRs this year (66.9%).