Welcome back, football.
We've got a full slate for you, beginning on Thursday, Aug. 13, and I'm dropping my Week 1 preseason NFL moneyline picks to help navigate the murky waters before the real fun begins.
Let's dive right into my NFL picks for Week 1.
Week 1 Preseason NFL moneyline picks
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Lions vs.  Bengals |
70% |
 Packers vs.  Steelers |
54% |
 Colts vs.  Patriots |
42% |
 Chargers vs.  Texans |
51% |
 Cardinals vs.  Raiders |
48% |
 Titans vs.  49ers |
67% |
 Dolphins vs.  Commanders |
60% |
 Broncos vs.  Falcons |
32% |
 Buccaneers vs.  Jets |
70% |
 Panthers vs.  Bills |
48% |
 Browns vs.  Bears |
52% |
 Vikings vs.  Giants |
54% |
 Jaguars vs.  Saints |
59% |
 Rams vs.  Chiefs |
55% |
 Eagles vs.  Ravens |
60% |
 Cowboys vs  Seahawks |
37% |
Lines courtesy of Kalshi as of 8-12.
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Expert Week 1 Preseason NFL moneyline picks
Lions vs. Bengals: Bengals (70%)
Head coach Zac Taylor told reporters on Tuesday that Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Dexter Lawrence will start Week 1 of the preseason. That's good enough for me to smash the Bengals moneyline here.
Packers vs. Steelers: Packers (54%)
Jordan Love gets the start for the Packers in this one, and with plenty of injuries in the secondary for Pittsburgh, there won't be anything holding him back from running up the score early.
Colts vs. Patriots: Patriots (42%)
The Colts are dedicating Week 1 to testing backup signal-callers Anthony Richardson and Riley Leonard. Meanwhile, we get a proven commodity in Tommy DeVito at home.
I don't trust Richardson as far as I can throw him (that's not very far), especially coming off an injury; rock with the underdog here.
Chargers vs. Texans: Texans (51%)
The Chargers enter Week 1 under their new regime and offensive coordinator, Mike McDaniel. I'm looking for the Texans' depth on defense to make things difficult for them as the unit finds its footing.
Cardinals vs. Raiders: Cardinals (48%)
Carson Beck, anyone?
Yes, yes, Fernando Mendoza will be getting a ton of run in this one, but how can you not back the Cardinals after Beck's 15 of 19, 188-yard, one-touchdown Hall of Fame game?
I'll back the man with more NFL reps, at least for now.
Titans vs. 49ers: Titans (67%)
Cam Ward will be playing multiple series in Week 1 of the preseason alongside NFL Rookie of the Year odds candidate Carnell Tate. That alone gives me enough reason to hit the button.
Dolphins vs. Commanders: Dolphins (60%)
Early indications coming out of Dolphins camp are that new starting quarterback Malik Willis has made a smooth transition into the starting role in Miami. With him looking to get plenty of reps in Week 1, I'll back the Dolphins to take this one.
Broncos vs. Falcons: Falcons (32%)
Broncos starting quarterback Bo Nix is coming off an ankle injury that likely cost Denver a trip to the Super Bowl, which makes me believe he won't be playing much in Week 1. On the other side, head coach Kevin Stefanski said he plans to give his starters some run in Week 1 and Week 3.
Don't let the probability fool you here, take the Falcons.
Buccaneers vs. Jets: Jets (70%)
New York Jets rookie David Bailey absolutely had his way with the Bucs' offensive line in joint practices this offseason, and Tampa Bay plans to rest most of their key starters in Week 1. Play the Jets at home in this spot.
Panthers vs. Bills: Panthers (48%)
The Bills will, of course, sit Josh Allen in Week 1 of the preseason, while Kenny Pickett and Haynes King will see significant run for the Panthers. Both are coming off a dominant Hall of Fame game.
I'll give Carolina the benefit of the doubt.
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Browns vs. Bears: Browns (52%)
A quarterback competition usually bodes well for preseason bettors, and that's exactly what we have in Cleveland.
The Browns will alternate starts between Deshaun Watson and Shedeur Sanders in the preseason before ultimately making the call, and against a banged-up defense like the Bears, I don't think it's going to matter who's taking the snaps in the first quarter.
Vikings vs. Giants: Vikings (54%)
The Vikings named Kyler Murray the Week 1 starting quarterback, which means his reps will likely remain limited in the preseason. Enter J.J. McCarthy, who will use this game against the Giants as a massive opportunity to show the brass what they'll be missing.
Jaguars vs. Saints: Saints (59%)
Tyler Shough broke out in 2025 and will look to stay hot in Week 1 of the preseason against the Jaguars. His presence alone is enough for me to take the Saints.
Rams vs. Chiefs: Chiefs (55%)
If Justin Fields wants to demonstrate he can be a capable backup behind Patrick Mahomes, Week 1 of the preseason is where he can start. I'll take him over Stetson Bennett any day of the week.
Eagles vs. Ravens: Eagles (60%)
Established starters won't be playing for both teams in this one, and I plan on it being an absolute slop fest.
However, I'm going to rest my head on Andy Dalton to get things done for Philly. He should be going against second- and third-stringers for most of his time on the field.
Cowboys vs. Seahawks: Cowboys (37%)
This pick is all about Joe Milton, who showed flashes of brilliance in his limited play time last year. I'm giving him (and his laser beam of an arm) the benefit of the doubt in Week 1 at this price.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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