NFL Moneyline Picks for Every Week 1 Preseason Game Today

Seven games remain in Week 1 of the NFL preseason, with today's games beginning at 1 p.m. ET. My NFL moneyline picks help navigate the murky waters before the real fun begins in a few weeks.

Week 1 of the preseason got the best of me; there's no other way to put it. We'll get back in the lab for Week 2 now that we have some games to draw from. 

Let's dive right into all my NFL picks for Week 1.

Week 1 Preseason NFL moneyline picks

Matchup	Pick	Result
Lions vs. Bengals	70%	✅
Packers vs. Steelers	54%	❌
Colts vs. Patriots	42%	😊
Chargers vs. Texans	51%	❌
Cardinals vs. Raiders	58%	❌
Titans vs. 49ers	67%	✅
Dolphins vs. Commanders	60%	❌
Broncos vs. Falcons	32%	❌
Buccaneers vs. Jets	70%	❌
Panthers vs. Bills	48%	❌
Browns vs. Bears	52%	❌
Vikings vs. Giants	54%	✅
Jaguars vs. Saints	59%	❌
Rams vs. Chiefs	55%	❌
Eagles vs. Ravens	60%	❌
Cowboys vs Seahawks	37%	✅

Lines courtesy of Kalshi as of 8-12.

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Expert Week 1 Preseason NFL moneyline picks

Panthers vs. Bills: Panthers (48%)

Kenny Pickett and Haynes King will see significant run for the Panthers. Both are coming off a dominant Hall of Fame game.

I'll give Carolina the benefit of the doubt. Quinn Allen backs Buffalo and its starters with his Panthers vs. Bills predictions.

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❌ Eagles vs. Ravens: Eagles (60%)

Established starters won't be playing for both teams in this one, and I plan on it being an absolute slop fest.

However, I'm going to rest my head on Andy Dalton to get things done for Philly. He should be going against second- and third-stringers for most of his time on the field.

• Joe Fagnano had an absolute game for Baltimore, coming out of nowhere to throw for 224 yards. Noted.

Grade: C

✅ Cowboys vs. Seahawks: Cowboys (37%)

This pick is all about Joe Milton, who showed flashes of brilliance in his limited play time last year. I'm giving him (and his laser beam of an arm) the benefit of the doubt in Week 1 at this price.

• Probably my best pick of the week, nailed it as a 37 cent underdog, and Joe Milton showed out for us.

Grade: A

❌ Browns vs. Bears: Browns (52%)

A quarterback competition usually bodes well for preseason bettors, and that's exactly what we have in Cleveland.

The Browns will alternate starts between Deshaun Watson and Shedeur Sanders in the preseason before ultimately making the call, and against a banged-up defense like the Bears, I don't think it's going to matter who's taking the snaps in the first quarter.

• Turns out the Browns continue to be a bad organization, and this could turn in to a long season for them.

Grade: C

✅ Vikings vs. Giants: Vikings (54%)

The Vikings named Kyler Murray the Week 1 starting quarterback, which means his reps will likely remain limited in the preseason. Enter J.J. McCarthy, who will use this game against the Giants as a massive opportunity to show the brass what they'll be missing.

• Carson Wentz and J.J. McCarthy did enough to get the job done for us, we'll take that.

Grade: B

❌ Jaguars vs. Saints: Saints (59%)

Zach Wilson, take over and take the Saints to a victory in Week 1. It's the only reps you'll see before the regular season.

• 10 unanswered points dropped this one as J'Mari Taylor came in late and stole the show.

Grade: C

❌ Rams vs. Chiefs: Chiefs (55%)

If Justin Fields wants to demonstrate he can be a capable backup behind Patrick Mahomes, Week 1 of the preseason is where he can start. I'll take him over Stetson Bennett any day of the week.

• Justin Fields started off the game 4 of 4 until the backups came in and lost it for us. It happens, it's Week 1 of the preseason.

Grade: C+

❌ Dolphins vs. Commanders: Dolphins (60%)

Early indications coming out of Dolphins camp are that new starting quarterback Malik Willis has made a smooth transition into the starting role in Miami. With him looking to get plenty of reps in Week 1, I'll back the Dolphins.

Our Shawn Krest is siding with Washington with his Dolphins vs. Commanders predictions

• As a Dolphins fan, I'll always have that first drive where Malik Willis and Caleb Douglas looked like prime Matthew Stafford-Megatron.

Grade: D

❌ Broncos vs. Falcons: Falcons (32%)

Broncos starting quarterback Bo Nix is coming off an ankle injury that likely cost Denver a trip to the Super Bowl, which makes me believe he won't be playing much in Week 1. On the other side, head coach Kevin Stefanski said he plans to give his starters some run in Week 1 and Week 3.

Don't let the probability fool you here, take the Falcons. Our Rob Paul made the case for the other side in his Broncos vs. Falcons predictions.

• Jarrett Stidham outplayed Tua Tagovailoa and Cooper Rush, and it wasn't very close.

Grade: D

❌ Buccaneers vs. Jets: Jets (70%)

New York Jets rookie David Bailey absolutely had his way with the Bucs' offensive line in joint practices this offseason, and Tampa Bay plans to rest most of their key starters in Week 1. Play the Jets at home in this spot.

Quinn Allen makes the case for New York with his Buccaneers vs. Jets predictions.

• Note to self, don't bet on bad organizations - Jalon Daniels cooked the Jets in Week 1.

Grade: D

✅ Lions vs. Bengals: Bengals (70%)

Head coach Zac Taylor told reporters on Tuesday that Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Dexter Lawrence will start Week 1 of the preseason. That's good enough for me to smash Bengals moneyline here.

• This matchup was much closer than we thought, but the first team was able to put some points on the board, with a little help from Joe Flacco in the end.

Grade: B

❌ Packers vs. Steelers: Packers (54%)

Jordan Love gets the start for the Packers in this one, and with plenty of injuries in the secondary for Pittsburgh, there won't be anything holding him back from running up the score early.

• Drew Allar might just be the truth, an unbelievable debut from him.

Grade: C

😊 Colts vs. Patriots: Patriots (42%)

The Colts are dedicating Week 1 to testing backup signal-callers Anthony Richardson and Riley Leonard. Meanwhile, we get a proven commodity in Tommy DeVito at home.

I don't trust Richardson as far as I can throw him, especially coming off an injury; rock with the underdog here.

• The resident dawg was barking until a late-game 61-yard field goal from Spencer Shrader shattered our dreams. We'll take the push.

Grade: B

❌ Chargers vs. Texans: Texans (51%)

The Chargers enter Week 1 under their new regime and offensive coordinator, Mike McDaniel. I'm looking for the Texans' depth on defense to make things difficult for them as the unit finds its footing.

• This one was tight up until the fourth quarter; Davis Mills just couldn't move the ball while the Texans leaned on a running game that left a lot to be desired.

Grade: D

❌ Cardinals vs. Raiders: Raiders (58%)

With Carson Beck ruled out and Fernando Mendoza likely getting some extensive run tonight, I'll flip my play over to the Raiders at 58%. Let's see what the national champ can do.

• Still can't believe I flipped my pick here at the last second. It was the Gardner Minshew show for most of the night.

Grade: C

✅ Titans vs. 49ers: Titans (67%)

Cam Ward will be playing multiple series in Week 1 of the preseason alongside NFL Rookie of the Year odds candidate Carnell Tate. That alone gives me enough reason to hit the button.

• The trio of Cam Ward, Will Levis, and Mitch Trubisky largely got the job done for us here - Carnell Tate, where you at?

Grade: B

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