The Denver Broncos and Atlanta Falcons both plan to play their starters when the two take the field at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Friday at 7 p.m. ET (NFL+), but both have said that they'll likely play them for just 10 to 15 plays.
Given Denver's depth advantage, Sean Payton's team is a 4.5-point road favorite, and my Broncos vs. Falcons predictions expect Jarrett Stidham and Jonah Coleman to power the orange and blue to a win.
Find out more in my NFL picks for Friday, Aug. 14.
Broncos vs Falcons predictions
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Who will win Broncos vs Falcons: Broncos -4.5
Since Sean Payton took over as head coach of the Denver Broncos, they've been among the best teams in the preseason. Payton is 7-2 in the preseason as Denver's bench boss, with his team outscoring opponents 262 to 118.
Denver has won seven straight preseason games under Payton, and during the winning streak, only one team has lost by fewer than five points. A big reason why is Jarrett Stidham, one of the NFL's most experienced backups.
During the Broncos' preseason winning streak, Stidham has passed for 742 yards with six total touchdowns. He also has playmakers to lean on in running backs Jonah Coleman and Tyler Badie, plus a deep veteran pass-catching corps.
The Atlanta Falcons' defense is already thin due to injuries and lacks proven depth. Not to mention, Kevin Stefanski could also pull backup QB Cooper Rush early to see what he has in undrafted rookie Jack Strand.
TOP PICK
Broncos vs Falcons Over/Under pick: Over 39.5
While both teams plan to play their starters for at least one series, Payton and Stefanski have made it clear they're not interested in playing them for more than a dozen or so plays. Once the starters get the hook, this game could get fun due to the experienced backup QBs and unproven second- and third-string defenders.
During Denver's seven-game preseason win streak, the Broncos are averaging 32.1 points per game and have scored no fewer than 27 points. With Stidham behind center, a talented backup running back group, and wide receivers that range from long-time Payton favorite Lil'Jordan Humphrey to two-time UFL Offensive Player of the Year Hakeem Butler, Denver should do its job to cash the Over.
The bigger question is the Falcons, but once Tua Tagovailoa is pulled, Rush gives them a QB who's seen plenty of NFL action. He'll also have a nice mix of talented young players, like Zachariah Branch, and veterans, like Charlie Woerner, to lean on.
And while Strand is an unknown at the NFL level, the 6-foot-5 Minnesota State-Moorhead product has plenty of arm talent to showcase. He threw 42 touchdowns last season for the Dragons.
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Broncos vs Falcons weather
The Falcons play in a dome at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
How to watch Broncos vs Falcons
| Location | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA |
| Date | Friday, Aug. 14, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV | NFL+ |
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