Steelers @ Lions Picks & Props

The Lions lead the NFL in points per game (30.6) with that number ticking up to 33.7 ppg at home. They will be able to move the ball against Pittsburgh who surrenders 25.4 ppg on the road. The Steelers are 21st in the league in defensive EPA and will likely be missing All-Pro edge T.J. Watt and another top pass rusher in Nick Herbig. Detroit struggled to convert on third down for most of the year, but has improved in that area after Dan Campbell took over play-calling duties. The Lions are ninth in the league in third-down conversion rate over the last three games (45.7%) while Pittsburgh is just 27th in third-down defense (42.4%).

Rodgers has completed more than 20.5 passes in six of his last nine games and he's coming off back-to-back contests where he logged 23 completions. The Steelers are 7-point underdogs on Sunday, which implies a negative game script with plenty of passing. The Lions are 25th in the league in dropback EPA since Week 9. Their injury-depleted secondary is getting picked apart with Detroit allowing 24.3 completions per game over the last three contests. 

Jaylen Warren was dealing with an illness on Monday night and likely gave up some volume because of it. Kenneth Gainwell finished with 20 touches to Warren’s 15 and made more of his opportunities. Even so, it was still Warren who handled all three running back carries in the red zone. With an extra week to recover, Warren should be in a better spot physically in Week 16 and is positioned to keep that red-zone role in a game carrying the highest total on the board at 52. I wouldn’t play this any lower than +115 to +120.

Gibbs has seen his rushing output tempered by recent games turning into shootouts and running into some stiff defenses. He’s done plenty of damage through the air but with Detroit a touchdown home fave to Pittsburgh, game script says more running for the Lions. The Steelers run stop isn’t great, sitting in the back half of the league in most metrics and giving up about five yards per carry over the past three games. Now they have a short turnaround with travel to Detroit. Gibbs projections flirting with 80 or more yards with a ceiling of 87. 

Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Detroit Lions are forecasted by the model to run 67.4 total plays in this game: the 4th-most on the slate this week.. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.. Opposing offenses have averaged 37.9 pass attempts per game versus the Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in football.. With a high 42.9% Red Zone Target Rate (100th percentile) this year, Amon-Ra St. Brown has been as one of the wide receivers with the biggest workloads near the end zone in football.. After accumulating 68.0 air yards per game last season, Amon-Ra St. Brown has seen a big uptick this season, currently pacing 87.0 per game.

The Steelers are an enormous 7-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script.. The predictive model expects the Steelers to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 65.0% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. The model projects this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 134.1 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. With an impressive 2.2 adjusted catches per game (80th percentile) this year, Jaylen Warren ranks among the leading running backs in the pass game in the league.

The Steelers are an enormous 7-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script.. The predictive model expects the Steelers to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 65.0% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. The model projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 134.1 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. Aaron Rodgers's throwing precision has gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 63.8% to 67.4%.

The Steelers are an enormous 7-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script.. The predictive model expects the Steelers to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 65.0% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. The model projects this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 134.1 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. In this contest, Aaron Rodgers is forecasted by the projections to average the most pass attempts out of all QBs with 40.5.

The Steelers are an enormous 7-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script.. The predictive model expects the Steelers to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 65.0% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. The model projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 134.1 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. This year, the shaky Lions defense has yielded a colossal 246.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing teams: the 8th-most in the league.

Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Detroit Lions are forecasted by the model to run 67.4 total plays in this game: the 4th-most on the slate this week.. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.. The projections expect Jared Goff to attempt 36.8 passes in this week's contest, on balance: the 6th-most out of all quarterbacks.. Opposing offenses have averaged 37.9 pass attempts per game versus the Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in football.. Jared Goff has been one of the top QBs in the league this year, averaging an excellent 244.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 95th percentile.

The Steelers are an enormous 7-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script.. The predictive model expects the Steelers to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 65.0% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. The model projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 134.1 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. In this game, Darnell Washington is anticipated by our trusted projection set to slot into the 80th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.0 targets.

The Steelers are an enormous 7-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script.. The predictive model expects the Steelers to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 65.0% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. The model projects this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 134.1 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. The predictive model expects Jaylen Warren to garner 4.1 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among RBs.

The Steelers are an enormous 7-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script.. The predictive model expects the Steelers to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 65.0% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. The model projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 134.1 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. The Detroit Lions defense has yielded the 3rd-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (168.0) versus WRs this year.

Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Detroit Lions are forecasted by the model to run 67.4 total plays in this game: the 4th-most on the slate this week.. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.. Opposing offenses have averaged 37.9 pass attempts per game versus the Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in football.. The model projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to total 11.7 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 99th percentile among WRs.. Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a more integral piece of his offense's pass game this season (33.3% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (27.1%).