Jefferson looked like he snapped his touchdown drought in last week's win over Dallas, but a penalty took away what would have been his first TD catch since the start of November. The Vikings take on another poor pass defense from the Giants. It's rare to see a WR of J.J.'s status offering this return to find the end zone and you can find this ATTD as high as +145 and as low as +115 on gameday.
I’m taking Giants +2.5 because I don’t see much separation between these teams, Minnesota’s third-down and turnover volatility plays worse on the road, and New York has a realistic path to stay on script with quick-game and play-action.
The Vikings have been ineffective running the ball near the goal line, to the point that C.J. Ham handled the one-yard touchdown carry last week. In fact, J.J. McCarthy matched all Vikings running backs combined in carries inside the 10 and has now scored two rushing touchdowns across his six starts. This is also an offense that loves to pass in the red zone. He’s in a strong spot to add to that total against the Giants, who allow the most quarterback rushing yards per game and have already surrendered four QB rushing touchdowns this season. Marcus Mariota ran 10 times for 43 yards last week, and Caleb Williams went for eight carries, 63 yards, and a score four games ago. Those are clean comps for McCarthy’s rushing upside on Sunday. Look for his Over 18.5 rushing yards, as well. I'm playing this to +320/+330.
The Giants ranked 29th in defensive DVOA before serving 29 points on a platter to the lowly Washington Commanders in Week 15, and New York has now surrendered the third-most yards and fourth-highest EPA per play while also allowing the fourth-most points per game to go along with a miserable 2-11 record. Of course, Minnesota quarterback J.J. McCarthy has also aired it out for 8.8 yards per attempt and the fourth-highest EPA+COPE composite for consecutive outright and against-the-spread wins the past two weeks.
The Vikings defense did enough to hold off the high-powered Cowboys on Sunday night but get a much easier opponent in the Giants offense in Week 16. Minnesota's blitz-heavy schemes and zone defense will get rookie Jaxon Dart fits. Minnesota QB J.J. McCarthy looks like he's finally healthy and settled into this playbook. The Giants are the softest defense he's faced in a long time.
The model projects the New York Giants to be the least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 50.6% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Windy weather conditions (like the 14-mph being predicted in this game) usually cause decreased passing efficiency, lower air attack volume, and higher ground volume.. The predictive model expects Jaxson Dart to throw 30.9 passes this week, on average: the 3rd-fewest out of all quarterbacks.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Vikings defense this year: 4th-fewest in the league.. Jaxson Dart rates as one of the worst QBs in the NFL this year, averaging 151.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 18th percentile.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Vikings to pass on 54.4% of their chances: the 8th-lowest rate on the slate this week.. The predictive model expects the Vikings to be the 4th-most sluggish paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, with opposing offenses averaging 29.35 seconds per snap.. The weather report calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Our trusted projections expect the Giants to run the 8th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.2 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.. The 6th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the New York Giants this year (a staggering 60.4 per game on average).. When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack metrics), the O-line of the Giants ranks as the 8th-best in football this year.. The Vikings have intercepted 0.39 throws per game this year, grading out as the 3rd-worst defense in football by this standard
Our trusted projections expect the Giants to run the 8th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.2 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.. The 6th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the New York Giants this year (a staggering 60.4 per game on average).. When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack metrics), the O-line of the Giants ranks as the 8th-best in football this year.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Vikings to pass on 54.4% of their chances: the 8th-lowest rate on the slate this week.. The predictive model expects the Vikings to be the 4th-most sluggish paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, with opposing offenses averaging 29.35 seconds per snap.. The weather report calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.. T.J. Hockenson has accumulated significantly fewer air yards this season (22.0 per game) than he did last season (54.0 per game).. This year, the fierce Giants defense has yielded a paltry 72.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the 7th-smallest rate in the league.
Our trusted projections expect the Giants to run the 8th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.2 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.. The 6th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the New York Giants this year (a staggering 60.4 per game on average).. In this game, Wan'Dale Robinson is forecasted by our trusted projection set to find himself in the 95th percentile among wideouts with 8.9 targets.. Wan'Dale Robinson has posted significantly more air yards this year (75.0 per game) than he did last year (41.0 per game).. Wan'Dale Robinson's 61.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 49.4.
The leading projections forecast Aaron Jones to accumulate 4.0 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 90th percentile among RBs.. Aaron Jones places in the 94th percentile among running back WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive involvement) with a superb 19.0 figure this year.. This year, the deficient Giants defense has allowed a massive 34.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing RBs: the 10th-worst in the league.. This year, the weak Giants pass defense has been gouged for a staggering 85.8% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing RBs: the 7th-highest rate in football.. The New York Giants safeties rank as the 7th-worst safety corps in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Minnesota Vikings to run on 45.6% of their plays: the 9th-highest rate on the slate this week.. The weather report calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.. This year, the stout Giants run defense has yielded a feeble 5.80 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing squads: the 32nd-best rate in football.. The New York Giants safeties rank as the 32nd-worst safety corps in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the New York Giants to run on 49.4% of their chances: the 2nd-greatest rate among all teams this week.. Our trusted projections expect the Giants to run the 8th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.2 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.. The 6th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the New York Giants this year (a staggering 60.4 per game on average).. Jaxson Dart has picked up 34.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the largest marks in football when it comes to QBs (97th percentile).. This year, the deficient Vikings run defense has yielded a whopping 130.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing teams: the 10th-worst in football.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the New York Giants to run on 49.4% of their chances: the 2nd-greatest rate among all teams this week.. Our trusted projections expect the Giants to run the 8th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.2 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.. The 6th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the New York Giants this year (a staggering 60.4 per game on average).. Windy weather conditions (like the 14-mph being predicted in this game) usually cause decreased passing efficiency, lower air attack volume, and higher ground volume.. This year, the deficient Vikings run defense has yielded a whopping 130.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing teams: the 10th-worst in football.
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