Keenan Allen sinks his teeth into a soft secondary from the Dallas Cowboys. The veteran WR will face a lot of zone coverage in Big D and has been a proven zone buster throughout his career. Projections for Allen call for as many as five receptions in Week 16. Fellow WR Quentin Johnston is active but slowed by a groin injury, so Allen could see his activity spike. He's grabbed four or more passes in 11 of his 14 games in 2025 and with the potential for a shootout agains the Cowboys' high-flying offense, Allen's ceiling is very high.
The Chargers have consecutive outright wins as an underdog, while the Cowboys have lost outright in back-to-back games as a favorite. Los Angeles has also won six of seven to improve to 10-4 for the campaign, while Dallas is all but officially eliminated from the postseason at 6-7-1. Additionally, just when it looked like the Dallas defense might be turning the corner, the Cowboys have given up 78 points while allowing the fourth-highest EPA per play the past two weeks. Dallas now sits 30th in defensive DVOA while allowing the third-highest EPA per play and second-most points per game (30.0).
After collecting 37 or more receiving yards in nine of the first 11 games of the season, Allen has been held below the benchmark in three straight with 12 receptions on 15 targets for 88 total yards. This is a bounce-back spot for the spry veteran, though. The Cowboys have surrendered the fourth-highest catch percentage to opposing wide receivers for the seventh-highest yards per target while allowing the fourth-highest EPA per dropback and ranking 30th in pass defense DVOA.
Malik Davis handled one of his larger workloads last week with eight carries and three targets. The production was modest, but he found the end zone after getting two carries inside the 10. That usage may not have been accidental. Javonte Williams left banged up and also scored his 10th touchdown, which triggered a performance bonus. He’s on a one-year deal and may not be eager to push through an injury with the team sitting at roughly a one-percent playoff chance. That opens the door for Davis to get an extended look down the stretch. At +375, even a repeat of last week’s volume is attractive. If he continues to see red-zone work and approaches double-digit carries, the price is too good to ignore.
The past few weeks, L.A. has found another gear. The Chargers aren’t just making it tough to move the chains, they’re making it dangerous. They’ve recorded 11 sacks, seven interceptions, and forced three fumbles (recovering one of those loose balls) during their three-game winning streak. The Bolts are a Top 5 passing defense and their zone-centric schemes don’t allow anything deep, checking rival QBs to the fewest total air yards and allowing the fourth lowest completion rate in the land. Dallas’ offense is reliant on over-the-top shots, especially with the way the Cowboys’ defense hemorrhages yards and often has this team involved in shootouts. The Cowboys are a Bottom 5 pass defense no matter how the advanced metrics slice it.
The predictive model expects the Dallas Cowboys as the 6th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 61.1% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The Cowboys have been the 9th-most pass-heavy team in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) this year with a 58.9% red zone pass rate.. The Cowboys have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a massive 60.3 plays per game.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. With a sizeable 20.9% Red Zone Target% (86th percentile) this year, George Pickens places as one of the wideouts with the biggest workloads near the goal line in the NFL.
The predictive model expects the Dallas Cowboys as the 6th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 61.1% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The Cowboys have been the 9th-most pass-heavy team in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) this year with a 58.9% red zone pass rate.. The Cowboys have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a massive 60.3 plays per game.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. Javonte Williams grades out in the 88th percentile among running backs as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging an exceptional 0.14 per game.
Our trusted projections expect the Chargers to be the 8th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.3% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The Chargers rank as the 7th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) this year with a 59.6% red zone pass rate.. The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 5th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 60.5 plays per game.. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.. The Cowboys defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, tempting opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (36.9 per game) this year.
Our trusted projections expect the Chargers to be the 8th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.3% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 5th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 60.5 plays per game.. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.. The Cowboys defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, tempting opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (36.9 per game) this year.. Keenan Allen ranks as one of the top WRs in the game this year, averaging an impressive 4.5 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 93rd percentile.
The predictive model expects the Dallas Cowboys as the 6th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 61.1% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The Cowboys have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a massive 60.3 plays per game.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. Jake Ferguson has gone out for fewer passes this year (77.5% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (67.0%).. Jake Ferguson's 5.5 adjusted catches per game this year reflects a noteworthy boost in his receiving talent over last year's 4.1 figure.
Our trusted projections expect the Chargers to be the 8th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.3% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 5th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 60.5 plays per game.. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.. In racking up a monstrous 31.3 pass attempts per game this year, Justin Herbert ranks among the top QBs in the NFL (82nd percentile) for this stat.. The Cowboys defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, tempting opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (36.9 per game) this year.
The predictive model expects the Dallas Cowboys as the 6th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 61.1% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The Cowboys have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a massive 60.3 plays per game.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. Our trusted projections expect Dak Prescott to throw 36.7 passes in this contest, on balance: the 7th-most out of all quarterbacks.. Dak Prescott's 273.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season shows a material improvement in his passing talent over last season's 244.0 rate.
Given the game dynamics and tendencies of each team, the predictive model expects this game (with an average of 26.72 seconds per play) will chug along at the 11th-most sluggish tempo among all games this week.. Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Los Angeles Chargers, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 31.2 per game) this year.. The Dallas Cowboys offensive line ranks as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing attack stats across the board.. The Los Angeles Chargers have intercepted 1.18 throws per game this year, ranking as the 2nd-best defense in the NFL by this metric.. When it comes to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Los Angeles's CB corps has been one of the most skilled this year, ranking as the 4th-best in the NFL.
Our trusted projections expect the Chargers to run the 9th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.6 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. The Chargers offensive line profiles as the 4th-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a negative influence on all pass game statistics across the board.
Our trusted projections expect the Chargers to be the 8th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.3% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 5th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 60.5 plays per game.. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.. The Cowboys defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, tempting opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (36.9 per game) this year.. The model projects Keenan Allen to notch 8.0 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 90th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
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