The New England Patriots have allowed just 19 points per game this season, good for the fifth-fewest in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Cleveland Browns have surrendered 21.7 ppg, tied for 13th-fewest. Each team has picked up its defensive intensity over the last few games. In that span, the Browns have limited opponents to just 16.7 ppg (fourth-fewest), and the Patriots have given up 17.3 ppg (fifth-fewest). Both defenses combined for six takeaways in their latest victories, and I expect those units to spearhead a tough, low-scoring affair.
Cleveland’s defense doesn’t travel well. At home, they’ve allowed just 40 points across four games, but on the road, they’ve given up 98 to Baltimore, Detroit, and Pittsburgh. With Drake Maye making real strides this season, I’m not shying away from backing the Patriots' offense against the Browns. While Hunter Henry might look like the obvious play, I’m targeting Austin Hooper at +600. He was the only tight end to see a red-zone target last week — and he converted it into a 3-yard touchdown. The Patriots have struggled to run near the goal line, so don’t be surprised if they lean on 2TE sets and throw inside the 20. Cleveland has also allowed touchdowns to backup tight ends in two of their last three games — Conner Heyward (+2700) and Josh Oliver (+1300) — making Hooper a live longshot.
Following Antonio Gibson landing on the IR, New England has made it clear that despite his fumble issues, Rhamondre Stevenson remains the clear-cut RB1 for Mike Vrabel’s team. Stevenson is coming off an 18-carry outing against Tennessee and has found paydirt three times in as many games. Expect him to be the focal point inside the red zone against Cleveland.
At the present time, the 7th-most pass-heavy team in the league near the goal line (59.7% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Patriots.. The projections expect Rhamondre Stevenson to be a much bigger part of his offense's passing game near the end zone in this contest (13.0% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (3.7% in games he has played).. When talking about air yards, Rhamondre Stevenson grades out in the lofty 91st percentile among running backs this year, accruing a whopping 5.0 per game. (given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more impressive than it sounds since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).. In regards to protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense statistics), the O-line of the Patriots grades out as the best in football this year.. Rhamondre Stevenson's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate rising from 85.1% to 88.7%.
The Patriots are a giant 7-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.. Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots to pass on 53.8% of their downs: the 5th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.. At the present time, the 4th-slowest paced offense in the league (context-neutralized) according to the model is the New England Patriots.. Opposing offenses have averaged 29.9 pass attempts per game against the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 8th-fewest in the NFL.. Opposing offenses have thrown for the 5th-fewest yards in the NFL (just 192.0 adjusted yards per game) against the Cleveland Browns defense this year.
At the moment, the 5th-least pass-centric team in the league (58.7% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Browns.. As it relates to pocket protection (and the importance it has on all passing offense statistics), the offensive line of the Cleveland Browns profiles as the worst in the league this year.
At a -7-point disadvantage, the Browns are giant underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting much more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan.. At the present time, the 3rd-fastest paced offense in the league (in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Browns.. This year, the feeble New England Patriots pass defense has conceded a whopping 88.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing RBs: the 5th-worst rate in the NFL.. This year, the anemic New England Patriots defense has surrendered the 8th-most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing running backs: a staggering 6.90 yards.. The Patriots safeties rank as the 10th-worst collection of safeties in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.
With a sizeable 47.6% Route Participation Rate (78th percentile) this year, Rhamondre Stevenson places among the RB receiving threats with the highest volume in the league.. The model projects Rhamondre Stevenson to accumulate 3.4 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 80th percentile among running backs.. When talking about air yards, Rhamondre Stevenson grades out in the lofty 91st percentile among running backs this year, accruing a whopping 5.0 per game. (given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more impressive than it sounds since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).. In regards to protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense statistics), the O-line of the Patriots grades out as the best in football this year.. Rhamondre Stevenson comes in as one of the top RBs in the pass game this year, averaging a remarkable 16.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 79th percentile.
At a -7-point disadvantage, the Browns are giant underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting much more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan.. At the present time, the 3rd-fastest paced offense in the league (in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Browns.. The New England Patriots pass defense has shown poor efficiency against tight ends this year, allowing 9.05 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 6th-most in the NFL.. The Patriots safeties rank as the 10th-worst collection of safeties in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.
At a -7-point disadvantage, the Browns are giant underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting much more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan.. At the present time, the 3rd-fastest paced offense in the league (in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Browns.. With a sizeable 91.8% Route Participation% (88th percentile) this year, Jerry Jeudy has been as one of the wide receivers with the most usage in football.. This week, Jerry Jeudy is predicted by the projection model to secure a spot in the 80th percentile among wideouts with 7.2 targets.. The New England Patriots pass defense has been gouged for the 5th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (71.5%) versus WRs this year (71.5%).
Hunter Henry has posted a massive 44.0 air yards per game this year: 95th percentile when it comes to TEs.. Hunter Henry's 40.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive usage) puts him in the company of the best in the NFL: 93rd percentile for tight ends.. In regards to protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense statistics), the O-line of the Patriots grades out as the best in football this year.. With a terrific 41.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (88th percentile) this year, Hunter Henry stands as one of the top pass-game tight ends in the league.. Hunter Henry's 9.8 adjusted yards per target this year signifies a substantial growth in his receiving ability over last year's 7.9 figure.
The Patriots are a giant 7-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.. The model projects the New England Patriots to be the 5th-most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 46.2% run rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. The model projects Rhamondre Stevenson to garner 16.5 carries in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 88th percentile among RBs.. The predictive model expects Rhamondre Stevenson to be a more important option in his team's ground game in this game (55.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (39.4% in games he has played).
At the moment, the 7th-most run-heavy team in the league (41.1% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Browns.. At the present time, the 3rd-fastest paced offense in the league (in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Browns.. The New England defensive ends profile as the 2nd-worst DE corps in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.
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