In the past month, they’ve faced three of the top four teams per defensive DVOA and averaged 22.6 points scored in those games. That’s good going when they’ve averaged just 15.5 points across the whole season.
The 49ers are averaging 23.6 points per game, and with the Titans showing real signs of improvement, we should see the game total smashed.
With the 49ers likely to have a big game themselves, we should expect the Titans to put up points too, even if it’s not enough to win or even cover the spread.
I’m not suddenly buying into the Titans’ offense after one good week, but Tony Pollard at this price is hard to ignore. You’re getting a lead back coming off a 25-carry, 161-yard, two-touchdown performance at essentially a WR3/WR4 number. The 49ers may be coming off a bye, but this defense isn’t a top-10 unit and is still missing key pieces with Fred Warner and Nick Bosa out. Even if Tennessee only scores 14 points, I’d take Pollard at +300 or better, especially with his red-zone role. Any back projected for 15 touches should be shorter than +250.
The Titans are a massive 12.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.. Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Tennessee Titans to pass on 61.0% of their plays: the 6th-greatest clip among all teams this week.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game against the 49ers defense this year: 9th-most in football.. This year, the poor 49ers defense has yielded a staggering 72.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 9th-largest rate in the league.. The San Francisco 49ers safeties rank as the 5th-worst group of safeties in the league this year in covering receivers.
With a 12.5-point advantage, the 49ers are a massive favorite this week, indicating much more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.. The leading projections forecast the San Francisco 49ers to be the 5th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 52.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect this game to have the 3rd-fewest plays run among all games this week at 126.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The projections expect Brock Purdy to attempt 31.3 passes in this game, on balance: the 4th-fewest among all quarterbacks.
The Titans are a massive 12.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.. Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Tennessee Titans to pass on 61.0% of their plays: the 6th-greatest clip among all teams this week.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game against the 49ers defense this year: 9th-most in football.. The 49ers pass defense has conceded the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (67.4%) versus WRs this year (67.4%).. The San Francisco 49ers safeties rank as the 5th-worst group of safeties in the league this year in covering receivers.
The leading projections forecast Jauan Jennings to accrue 7.0 targets in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 80th percentile among WRs.. This year, the weak Titans pass defense has conceded a massive 70.9% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wideouts: the highest rate in the NFL.. The Titans pass defense has exhibited poor efficiency versus wideouts this year, surrendering 9.79 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the most in the NFL.. As it relates to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Tennessee's CB corps has been dreadful this year, ranking as the worst in football.
With a 12.5-point advantage, the 49ers are a massive favorite this week, indicating much more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.. The leading projections forecast the San Francisco 49ers to be the 6th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 52.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect this game to have the fewest plays run among all games this week at 126.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. After averaging 56.0 air yards per game last year, George Kittle has fallen off this year, now sitting at 41.0 per game.. George Kittle has posted a lot fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (48.0) this year than he did last year (76.0).
The Titans are a massive 12.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.. Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Tennessee Titans to pass on 61.0% of their plays: the 6th-greatest clip among all teams this week.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game against the 49ers defense this year: 9th-most in football.. The San Francisco 49ers safeties rank as the 5th-worst group of safeties in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Titans are a massive 12.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.. Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Tennessee Titans to pass on 61.0% of their plays: the 6th-greatest clip among all teams this week.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game against the 49ers defense this year: 9th-most in football.. Tony Pollard has accumulated a whopping 1.0 air yards per game this year: 80th percentile when it comes to running backs. (This may not sound too impressive, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage).. Tony Pollard's ball-catching skills have improved this year, with his Adjusted Catch% rising from 74.2% to 83.8%.
Christian McCaffrey has been more involved as a potential target this season (81.0% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (68.1%).. In this contest, Christian McCaffrey is expected by the model to land in the 99th percentile when it comes to RBs with 6.8 targets.. Christian McCaffrey has accumulated a whopping 21.0 air yards per game this year: 100th percentile among running backs. (This might not seem like very many, but most RBs have negative air yards considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage).. Christian McCaffrey grades out as one of the best RBs in the pass game this year, averaging a remarkable 62.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 100th percentile.. The Tennessee Titans pass defense has shown bad efficiency versus running backs this year, surrendering 7.10 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-most in football.
With a 12.5-point advantage, the 49ers are a massive favorite this week, indicating much more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.. The predictive model expects the 49ers to be the 6th-most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 48.0% run rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The Tennessee Titans defense owns the 7th-worst efficiency against opposing ground games this year, giving up 4.97 adjusted yards-per-carry.
The projections expect Tony Pollard to total 15.4 rush attempts this week, on balance, putting him in the 82nd percentile when it comes to running backs.. Out of all RBs, Tony Pollard ranks in the 95th percentile for rush attempts this year, taking on 66.1% of the workload in his offense's rushing attack.. The San Francisco 49ers defensive tackles profile as the worst group of DTs in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.
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